ForestHillWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: FWIW the 3k NAM has sleet to Staten Island by about 2pm over to I-80 in NJ and to the Tappan Zee/my backyard/West Milford by 3pm. It's quite wet, 1.5" liquid or more for most. Really nowcast time, but that’s south of last nights runs; I believe the NAM pushed the mix line to Port Jervis. NWS just put up a heavy snow advisory for my area. 6 degrees with 3.5” down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Closing in on 4 here on 0.16 LE 25:1 or better ratios Its crazy because i put the chart up for ratios,a lot of folks weren't buying it. Rn im at 26 to 25 to 1@9 degrees. Close to 4@home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 It's always been a front end with best ratios ahead of the mixing and each hour the sleet doesnt arrive is 1-2 inches more ahead of the mix. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Morristown: 3.75” - 12* - Heavy snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Not sure why there are two threads for this storm? Harder to follow the different convos. Why not merge the obs and storm discussion into one thread - imo. 11 / 8 SN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Extremely icy, route 25 was snow covered and I was spinning wheels before dot went by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8F 4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RKO36 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Not quite 4" of snow in central Edison. Started to get heavy about 20 minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Eyeball somewhere around 3 inches, in Melville LI Intensity has varied for last 90 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Friend in N MD already has 9" with heavy snow (roughly 1.5"/hr.) And NAM gave him a storm total of 5".... 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Northof78 said: Friend in N MD already has 9" with heavy snow (roughly 1.5"/hr.) And NAM gave him a storm total of 5".... Tell @eduggs that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My sister in Galloway got 5.5" already 10 mins from Atlantic City. Was only forecast for 3-5" in Mt Holly New update. Said it's still snowing really hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just measured 4.75" +4.7F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Friend in N MD already has 9" with heavy snow (roughly 1.5"/hr.) And NAM gave him a storm total of 5".... The problem is the snow map algorithm can't accurately predict ratios. So if the says you get 5 out of .3" and were at 20 or 25:1 then you add a few inches to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Mix line to about SNJ between Wild Wood and Atlantic city. At the current rate of progression it looks to mix in CNJ between 11 - 1Pm and NNJ/ EWR / NYC between 1 - 3 PM. So another solid 3 - 4 hours of 1-3 inch an hour rates gets a mojority >10 then whatever additional snow/sleet mix falls after 3pm and 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 about 3 here in Belle Mead NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 13.5 degrees, 2.5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Mix line to about SNJ between Wild Wood and Atlantic city. At the current rate of progression it looks to mix in CNJ between 11 - 1Pm and NNJ/ EWR / NYC between 1 - 3 PM. So another solid 3 - 4 hours of 1-3 inch an hour rates gets a mojority >10 then whatever additional snow/sleet mix falls after 3pm and 10pm. this seems a bit quicker than progged? is there a best radar to track this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Sleet line southern NJ cape may area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Weak coastal off hatteras,nc currently, the tug of war has started. This is where models start to waffle. Almost every model has the weak coastal just off the nj coast later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Weak coastal off hatteras,nc currently, the tug of war has started. This is where models start to waffle. Almost every model has the weak coastal just off the nj coast later. Imagine if this gets suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: this seems a bit quicker than progged? is there a best radar to track this 9 of 10 times its quicker in my experience. The bonus / counter has been the front end WAA overrunning with 20:1 / 25:1 ratios. Of the 1.5 QPF if we can get 0.7 or better than half on the front end the >10 inches will be common for most. NNJ >12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3.5" as of 9:45. Temp up to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 PHL radar looks amazing-here comes the money 4-5 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: Imagine if this gets suppressed. Not so sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Incredibly fine flakes out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Mix line to about SNJ between Wild Wood and Atlantic city. At the current rate of progression it looks to mix in CNJ between 11 - 1Pm and NNJ/ EWR / NYC between 1 - 3 PM. So another solid 3 - 4 hours of 1-3 inch an hour rates gets a mojority >10 then whatever additional snow/sleet mix falls after 3pm and 10pm. Right but most models had the mix line getting to a certain spot then collapsing back south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Very fine flakes all morning in Montville off 287. Haven’t seen any larger flakes yet. Guessing about 2-3 inches this far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Piling up 4.5 - 5 here now (Monroe, NJ - CNJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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