January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well we didn't get back to Raleigh as planned as shortly into the trip a piece of ice on I-95 flew off someone's car and right into my windshield smashing it. Nobody could help me today because nobody showed up for work anywhere so I am stuck here until tomorrow to get it fixed and hopefully get home eventually. 

Holy crap. That’s awful! I’ve seen huge chunks come off of semi trailers on the interstate, but there’s no excuse for it to come off a passenger vehicle. Glad that you’re safe!

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well we didn't get back to Raleigh as planned as shortly into the trip a piece of ice on I-95 flew off someone's car and right into my windshield smashing it. Nobody could help me today because nobody showed up for work anywhere so I am stuck here until tomorrow to get it fixed and hopefully get home eventually. 

That’s awful! Glad you’re safe. Good luck 

[eyewall]

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Omg. Well, I’m glad you are okay but that is scary as all get out. I’ve had a tire piece off a semi jump a retaining wall in TX and smack my windshield and leave a massive rubber mark on the driver side. I’m happy it didn’t smash my windshield though, but that sudden impact is scary as anything. 

Yeah it didn't cave in but a full 2ft wide spiderweb 

[eyewall]

7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Holy crap. That’s awful! I’ve seen huge chunks come off of semi trailers on the interstate, but there’s no excuse for it to come off a passenger vehicle. Glad that you’re safe!

It had South Carolina plates so that explains a lot.

[nw baltimore wx]

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It had South Carolina plates so that explains a lot.

You overestimate us.

[mappy]

34 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I'm not sure how NWS verifies info that comes in immediately? I do know they have reached out to me 3 times in the last 2 winters to verify reports they have received near me. 

Yeah LWX has called me before when looking for severe storm reports if I didn’t report any trees down or anything but have never had them ask about snow. They have edited my totals before, which is funny to me. I’ve had to send photos to prove my measurement was correct. Very weird. 

[eyewall]

I appreciate it everyone. I just can't wait to get back home at this point. 

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

I appreciate it everyone. I just can't wait to get back home at this point. 

 Inconvenient and scary as hell, but just glad you are OK.

[GreyHat]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Not grading my last minute adjustment as the storm started for many by then. This is the one I put out 2 days before. I think 90% ended up within the ranges. BWI busted high by 1”.  I was too high along the southeast fringes.  I’m ok with this. 

Good map, couldn't tell you what we got since that .42" of freezing rain on top of hours of sleet. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

How much snow/sleet do you think DCA actually received?

I can’t answer for right there at their  thermometer because the problem is likely right there.  The parkway  runs close  by with lots of trees so nit heavily industrialized in any manner 8.5” more like it .  How much do you think they got and how do think they  do with temps  and snow? 
it also appears the 6.9 they reported is snow only when looking at the color coding accumulation maps you provided?

 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

How much snow/sleet do you think DCA actually received?

So the bottom panel snow only?  Nothing additional including  sleet? 
some stations have two different colored values, is that snow first and sleet and snow second 

[THEREALTOR1]

10 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Good map, couldn't tell you what we got since that .42" of freezing rain on top of hours of sleet. 

I drove up to Dover this afternoon to dig my parents' cars out and was surprised I didn't see more trees down.  I'll take 18" of powder snow any day of the week over this 4" frozen concrete w/ 2" ice topping.  Its torn up more stuff than any other storm I can remember going back to the '93 ice storm.  Felton, DE

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Well we didn't get back to Raleigh as planned as shortly into the trip a piece of ice on I-95 flew off someone's car and right into my windshield smashing it. Nobody could help me today because nobody showed up for work anywhere so I am stuck here until tomorrow to get it fixed and hopefully get home eventually. 

So sorry but glad everyone is safe, that is the most important thing 

[GreyHat]

17 minutes ago, THEREALTOR1 said:

I drove up to Dover this afternoon to dig my parents' cars out and was surprised I didn't see more trees down.  I'll take 18" of powder snow any day of the week over this 4" frozen concrete w/ 2" ice topping.  Its torn up more stuff than any other storm I can remember going back to the '93 ice storm.  Felton, DE

Yeah,  notification went out from Delmarva Power that more outages may happen due to heavy ice on trees and limbs falling on wires. The back roads (peachtree rd) were 4" of ice and we saw limbs down from pine trees.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Roads are in terrible shape around here! Some roads that are normally two lanes of traffic have only one lane.

[Roger Smith]

DCA reported 1.99" liquid and 6.9" snow. If I'm generous and say .09" of that was freezing drizzle (probably an overestimate) then their snow report equals real snow plus sleet at some possible-to-calculate ratio after an assumption is made on the snowfall to liquid conversion. I will assume 10:1 in my calculation that follows.

So let's say 5" real snow, then we have

5.0 + 1.40*(ratio/10) = 6.9

That reduces to 1.40*(ratio/10) = 1.9

and makes ratio/10 = .21, in other words a 2.1 :  1.0  ratio. Sleet ratios are often quoted at 3:1. 

For 3:1 to be correct, then snow at 10:1 is 2.7" .. that is clearly a low estimate based on regional reports.

So either this was very watery sleet or very underestimated sleet. I would guess what really happened is that 3" of sleet pounded 6" of snow down to 4 inches and sat on top giving 7 inches.  

[LordBaltimore]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

DCA reported 1.99" liquid and 6.9" snow. If I'm generous and say .09" of that was freezing drizzle (probably an overestimate) then their snow report equals real snow plus sleet at some possible-to-calculate ratio after an assumption is made on the snowfall to liquid conversion. I will assume 10:1 in my calculation that follows.

So let's say 5" real snow, then we have

5.0 + 1.40*(ratio/10) = 6.9

That reduces to 1.40*(ratio/10) = 1.9

and makes ratio/10 = .21, in other words a 2.1 :  1.0  ratio. Sleet ratios are often quoted at 3:1. 

For 3:1 to be correct, then snow at 10:1 is 2.7" .. that is clearly a low estimate based on regional reports.

So either this was very watery sleet or very underestimated sleet. I would guess what really happened is that 3" of sleet pounded 6" of snow down to 4 inches and sat on top giving 7 inches.  

This is why AI will never be able to predict snow totals. The dataset is awful

[GATECH]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

DCA reported 1.99" liquid and 6.9" snow. If I'm generous and say .09" of that was freezing drizzle (probably an overestimate) then their snow report equals real snow plus sleet at some possible-to-calculate ratio after an assumption is made on the snowfall to liquid conversion. I will assume 10:1 in my calculation that follows.

So let's say 5" real snow, then we have

5.0 + 1.40*(ratio/10) = 6.9

That reduces to 1.40*(ratio/10) = 1.9

and makes ratio/10 = .21, in other words a 2.1 :  1.0  ratio. Sleet ratios are often quoted at 3:1. 

For 3:1 to be correct, then snow at 10:1 is 2.7" .. that is clearly a low estimate based on regional reports.

So either this was very watery sleet or very underestimated sleet. I would guess what really happened is that 3" of sleet pounded 6" of snow down to 4 inches and sat on top giving 7 inches.  

This!  The compaction was quick.  One hour into the heavy sleet I had lost about .5 inches of snow depth.  Depending on when/if they cleared their board can easily explain the lower than expected report.  Also if you really examined the sleet, I did of course because I (aren’t we all) am a weather nerd, it was watery and was very diverse in size, which was surprising to me.  Smallish sleet pellets seemed to dominate, at least in my yard.  I am about 13 miles due south of DCA, just about on the river so similar, except we have trees instead of concrete.  My final tally was 8.5”, but I cleared my measuring area soon after the sleet started and then every 6 hours ish

[THEREALTOR1]

33 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Yeah,  notification went out from Delmarva Power that more outages may happen due to heavy ice on trees and limbs falling on wires. The back roads (peachtree rd) were 4" of ice and we saw limbs down from pine trees.

I guess they haven't touched the side roads yet, coming home Lochmeath Way by Lowes was horrible. Felton did a pretty good job clearing out, Camden not so much. Heard limbs coming down all night last night here though. Luckily still have power, just hoping we get through the cold snap.  I grew up in Magnolia, Lexington Mill Rd off of Irish HIll Rd. Still go through that way when i'm heading to the golf course.

[snowfan]

I don’t recall ever being this sore after shoveling. Also, secondary roads are shit. 

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

Well we didn't get back to Raleigh as planned as shortly into the trip a piece of ice on I-95 flew off someone's car and right into my windshield smashing it. Nobody could help me today because nobody showed up for work anywhere so I am stuck here until tomorrow to get it fixed and hopefully get home eventually. 

I am very happy you are okay. You'll get the windshield fixed, but the most important thing is you are okay.

[SnowenOutThere]

 Made a thread to go over the storm 

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

So the bottom panel snow only?  Nothing additional including  sleet? 
some stations have two different colored values, is that snow first and sleet and snow second 

Their snowfall total included sleet accumulation. It wasn't just snow. Sleet counts as snowfall accumulation when you measure at a FAA facility for NWS climate data. Most of the time the ratio will fall at around 3:1 as Roger reported above. I have measured snow before at 2 separate stations here in MI in the past, so I have direct experience in this. 

[Jebman]

13 hours ago, dailylurker said:

It's literally a disaster out there. A glorious disaster! Where's Jebman? Lol. My street is like concrete was laid and then people drove through it before it set. NOW isn't permanent. The 4 feet of powder i experienced in NY was a walk in park compared to this monster lol. I've got about 10" of concrete on the ground and a sheet of clear ice covering everything. I LOVE extreme winter conditions. Hopefully we can get a couple feet of mid Atlantic mash potatoes on top of this.

That's EPIC man, just plain EPIC! Not really sure how to clear that monster ice accumulation. Maybe get a pressure washer with super hot water...

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

31 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I don’t recall ever being this sore after shoveling. Also, secondary roads are shit. 

I hear that.  It got to the point where I quit shoveling and was just picking up huge blocks of concrete glacier and shot-putting them over to the lawn.  Felt like I was trying to qualify for the world's strongest man competition.  Definitely will pay for that tomorrow.

I'm on a cul-de-sac (Gainesville) and there have been no plows on our road.  Standard cars don't have the ground clearance to get through this mess.  Might have to wait until April for it to melt first.

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said:

I hear that.  It got to the point where I quit shoveling and was just picking up huge blocks of concrete glacier and shot-putting them over to the lawn.  Felt like I was trying to qualify for the world's strongest man competition.  Definitely will pay for that tomorrow.

I'm on a cul-de-sac (Gainesville) and there have been no plows on our road.  Standard cars don't have the ground clearance to get through this mess.  Might have to wait until April for it to melt first.

The worst of it is you guys are probably in for several more major winter storms. Especially that thing brewing in the models right now. Could be talkin 1993 except this time you guys get laser targeted for maximum snow accumulations! ON TOP of that DEEP solid ice! Might have to start calling that place New Greenland lmao...

...By the time this is over we may all be fully Snowciopathic lol.

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

The worst of it is you guys are probably in for several more major winter storms. Especially that thing brewing in the models right now. Could be talkin 1993 except this time you guys get laser targeted for maximum snow accumulations! ON TOP of that DEEP solid ice! Might have to start calling that place New Greenland lmao...

...By the time this is over we may all be fully Snowciopathic lol.

We've been overdue for a while, so it finally caught up with us.  I'll believe the weekend storm when I shovel it, hahaha.  At least by that time I'll be in shoveling shape!

Seriously, this area has to thread the atmoshperic needle perfectly to get one of the gynormous storms.  That's why we only get them on average once every 7 to 10 years.  Usually it's 34F and 2" of rain.  2009-10 was my personal holy grail, as I had always hoped to have 2 big storms in one season.  I got that and more.  Dec 2009 was really interesting because I developed shingles just before that big storm hit, and I had to literally hike my way through thigh-deep drifts to get to the local CVS to fill the prescription.  Little did I know what awaited us 6 weeks later.  Fun times.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

I don’t recall ever being this sore after shoveling. Also, secondary roads are shit. 

2.5 hours on what is usually  45-60 minutes