baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, TSSN+ said: Nam at hour 12 shifted the sleet/snow line like 75 miles south in one run. From there I don't really care what it shows lol. Yeah big signal for a cave on the super aggressive mixing line advancement... I hope. Still have until 00z to get a bad run in before game time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18z HRRR Snow Depth for the duration of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM 3k is a hold or worse for DC. Blasts the mix line through between 12z-13z, with maybe 0.3" QPF by then. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, DDweatherman said: Eh the r/s line is a fair bit south out in the TN valley and so is the overall precip shield. I think frame 12 is the most flat compared to last run and then it's less aggressively flat by comparison afterwards but it does stay flatter overall. Definitely taking the improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12k flips DC at 12z with a little more than 0.4” QPF all snow. 3k at 12z - DC is just barely all snow but it charges north of the city by 13z. About 0.35” of all snow on the 3K…shaved a few hundredths from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM 3k is a hold or worse for DC. Blasts the mix line through between 12z-13z, with maybe 0.3" QPF by then.Geez after all the positive posts before the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Ji said: Geez after all the positive posts before the run Happens every run, never learn.. it was better earlier, then it got past its useful range of 12 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: NAM 3k is a hold or worse for DC. Blasts the mix line through between 12z-13z, with maybe 0.3" QPF by then. Seems like it is a nudge colder but drier. Hopefully it is out to lunch on the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Ji said: Geez after all the positive posts before the run Still the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, baltosquid said: Seems like it is a nudge colder but drier. Hopefully it is out to lunch on the moisture. If you cant get the 18znam juiced up... Forget about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Mix line on 18z nam most similar to 12z yesterday at the same hour (06z Sun). That run doesn’t flip DC until 14z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Nam at hour 12 shifted the sleet/snow line like 75 miles south in one run. From there I don't really care what it shows lol. screwy ass storm, screwy ass maps... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The NAM 3k is the new Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Any word if the 1km NAM will be run over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Hrrr and euro vs nam?Least snowy model wins right? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Think I have to lower my bar down to 4” of snow. NAM tax. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think I have to lower my bar down to 4” of snow. NAM tax. Hope you taking the Nam over the euro is as dumb as it SHOULD be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The discounting of the NAM is wild to me. I have seen it nail this kind of situation so many times before. This is where it thrives. I’d rather look at the NAM than the garbage GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The new exp Nam is colder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Ji said: The new exp Nam is colder Look at the snow hole over SW PA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Ji said: The new exp Nam is colder Which is more accurate. RRFS new nam or the old nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 A touch of ZR at the end of the NAM Nest run, but mostly just drier. 1" QPF, pretty similar to this morning's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Ji said: The new exp Nam is colder They look pretty similar to me at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, winter_warlock said: Which is more accurate. RRFS new nam or the old nam? Neither they both suck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2. Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense. 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 They look pretty similar to me at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 There is snow breaking out in eastern KY to SW WV on NWS observation stations. Nam doesn't have snow there for another 4 hours. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Ji said: That's the lower resolution NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, high risk said: The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2. Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense. We've been down this road many times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, EHoffman said: And just like that Randy's forecast from early this week is confirmed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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