Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[baltosquid]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Nam at hour 12 shifted the sleet/snow line like 75 miles south in one run. From there I don't really care what it shows lol. 

Yeah big signal for a cave on the super aggressive mixing line advancement... I hope. Still have until 00z to get a bad run in before game time!

[Kleimax]

18z HRRR Snow Depth for the duration of the storm. 

[MN Transplant]

NAM 3k is a hold or worse for DC.  Blasts the mix line through between 12z-13z, with maybe 0.3" QPF by then.

[baltosquid]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Eh the r/s line is a fair bit south out in the TN valley and so is the overall precip shield. 

I think frame 12 is the most flat compared to last run and then it's less aggressively flat by comparison afterwards but it does stay flatter overall. Definitely taking the improvement.

[nj2va]

12k flips DC at 12z with a little more than 0.4” QPF all snow.

3k at 12z - DC is just barely all snow but it charges north of the city by 13z. About 0.35” of all snow on the 3K…shaved a few hundredths from 12z.

[Ji]

NAM 3k is a hold or worse for DC.  Blasts the mix line through between 12z-13z, with maybe 0.3" QPF by then.

Geez after all the positive posts before the run

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ji said:

Geez after all the positive posts before the run

Happens every run, never learn.. it was better earlier, then it got past its useful range of 12 hours out. 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

NAM 3k is a hold or worse for DC.  Blasts the mix line through between 12z-13z, with maybe 0.3" QPF by then.

Seems like it is a nudge colder but drier. Hopefully it is out to lunch on the moisture.

[MN Transplant]

Just now, Ji said:

Geez after all the positive posts before the run

Still the NAM 

[jlewis1111]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Seems like it is a nudge colder but drier. Hopefully it is out to lunch on the moisture.

If you cant get the 18znam juiced up... Forget about it

[Terpeast]

Mix line on 18z nam most similar to 12z yesterday at the same hour (06z Sun). That run doesn’t flip DC until 14z

[Miss Pixee]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam at hour 12 shifted the sleet/snow line like 75 miles south in one run. From there I don't really care what it shows lol. 

screwy ass storm, screwy ass maps...

[Kleimax]

The NAM 3k is the new Dr. No

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Any word if the 1km NAM will be run over us?

[Ji]

Hrrr and euro vs nam?

Least snowy model wins right?

[NorthArlington101]

Think I have to lower my bar down to 4” of snow. NAM tax.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think I have to lower my bar down to 4” of snow. NAM tax.

Hope you taking the Nam over the euro is as dumb as it SHOULD be. 

[osfan24]

The discounting of the NAM is wild to me. I have seen it nail this kind of situation so many times before. This is where it thrives. I’d rather look at the NAM than the garbage GFS.

[Ji]

The new exp Nam is colder

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The new exp Nam is colder

Look at the snow hole over SW PA

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The new exp Nam is colder

Which is more accurate. RRFS new nam or the old nam?

[MN Transplant]

A touch of ZR at the end of the NAM Nest run, but mostly just drier.  1" QPF, pretty similar to this morning's run.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The new exp Nam is colder

They look pretty similar to me at that hour.

[TSSN+]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Which is more accurate. RRFS new nam or the old nam?

Neither they both suck

[high risk]

The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2.   Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense.

[Ji]

They look pretty similar to me at that hour.

[TSSN+]

There is snow breaking out in eastern KY to SW WV on NWS observation stations. Nam doesn't have snow there for another 4 hours. lol

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, Ji said:

That's the lower resolution NAM.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, high risk said:

The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2.   Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense.

We've been down this road many times.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, EHoffman said:

And just like that Randy's forecast from early this week is confirmed.