Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Randy’s right, looks like we’re not bleeding in the wrong direction for Euro. 12z suite stopped that for the most part, and several models going back in the right direction. 

The 12z suite is good. If we can knock that warm layer down, then it would be a boom scenario wrt snowfall.

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

I don't know much about the whole process of snowing through the thin warm nose. Is it weenie talk or could we really get meaningful snow through it? If you have any time to explain the reasonableness of it. I hear it pretty much every time we get a mixy event.

I think the idea is if we get rates enough the airmass should be cold enough to overcome a slight warm layer.  Whether that works in reality is another matter, I've found in these situations around DC at least if we get rates with a warm nose it just ends up dumping rimed-out flakes.  But this airmass is far colder than most any we get around here so who knows if that'll make a difference in this case.

[primetime]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

P&C is gonna change constantly. I don’t think they are human generated 

I kind of figured that but I appreciate the clarification. It seemed like a pretty dramatic change and with things seemingly narrowing in and trending well for this neck of the woods, I was a little surprised.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just a sounding which helps my fears over a massive ice event. This is the sounding a model has for Cvill near the end of its storm

I'd love it for a met to confirm this but the sub melt layer is around 3000ft which according to my research would basically mean anything that falls would be sleet no matter how warm the mid levels are.

[Ji]

dr tick was a tick colder in Loudoun at 16z...-2 instead of -1 at 700

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Randy’s right, looks like we’re not bleeding in the wrong direction for Euro. 12z suite stopped that for the most part, and several models going back in the right direction. 

Euro was kind of the model the most "in the middle" so it makes sense it would change the least as we get convergence among the others...

[balltermen]

Euro is marginally colder, but within the moe for noise. 

I'd love to see Pivotal soundings for 16-17z Sunday.  @yoda?

 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just a sounding which helps my fears over a massive ice event. This is the sounding a model has for Cvill near the end of its storm

I'd love it for a met to confirm this but the sub melt layer is around 3000ft which according to my research would basically mean anything that falls would be sleet no matter how warm the mid levels are.

That warm layer on your sounding is 5-10kft. Far above 3,000 but plenty of room to refreeze into sleet

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just a sounding which helps my fears over a massive ice event. This is the sounding a model has for Cvill near the end of its storm

I'd love it for a met to confirm this but the sub melt layer is around 3000ft which according to my research would basically mean anything that falls would be sleet no matter how warm the mid levels are.

Not a met but fortunately that high of a nose 750-800mb can allow refreezing of droplets in time for sleet to be the ptype. Lower noses around 900mb don’t allow that. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro was kind of the model the most "in the middle" so it makes sense it would change the least as we get convergence among the others...

Yep, and it is a bit colder. I appreciated 12z for what we’re looking for here. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Looking like a good Euro run.

[Eskimo Joe]

Canadian kills the inland low off quick and has a better high. Good signs and it's been trending this way for several runs.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO total precip is making PA folks unhappy compared to 6Z.

[NorthArlington101]

Looks good to me. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, balltermen said:

Euro is marginally colder, but within the moe for noise. 

I'd love to see Pivotal soundings for 16-17z Sunday.  @yoda?

 

Where?  At DCA?

[bncho]

Euro slight tick south.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO 1 am Sunday, 7am, 10am, 1 pm

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO total precip is making PA folks unhappy compared to 6Z.

Not too different for those pa folks that matter in this thread.  Further north ya 

[caviman2201]

The biggest thing is the bleeding north has stopped, at least for now... even if we don't see some sort of major south trend

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

That warm layer on your sounding is 5-10kft. Far above 3,000 so plenty of room to refreeze into sleet

That's what i was wondering.  Whether precip falling into a shallow warm nose, would change back to sleet when it hits those absurdly cold temps below 800 mb 

I think the deemphasis on ice here is probably the move for now. 50 miles south?  that's a different story 

[davidjd1114]

Not too different for those pa folks that matter in this thread.  Further north ya 

Yea I’m in York and I have no complaints with this lol


.

[GreyHat]

NWS finally put Delaware WSW.

[DDweatherman]

The euro was definitely an improvement. Another 25 miles south and it’s probably 15” all snow up these parts and 10” down to 20 miles N/W of the fall line. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO total precip is making PA folks unhappy compared to 6Z.

They get higher ratios, they will be fine.  

[Alfoman]

Euro Uptick on front thump (12z left, 6z right)

[yoda]

@Terpeast

Wouldn't this sounding suggest +SN at DCA still at 18z?  700mb to 800mb is nearly isothermal, but just below zero.  If rates were to be heavy enough, I guess rimed snow?  

[psuhoffman]

I think the euro improvement, when taken along with all the rest of the 12z guidance...was more than just noise.  Keep in mind we are not going to see some massive jump every 6 hours from here on it, not on the euro anyways...not this close in.  But the changes I see on the euro are consistent with the changes I saw across the rest of the 12z guidance, so I think even though its an incremental change...its safe to say it's not just noise.  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO snow totals compared to 6Z.  Nice run....

[wawarriors4]

In Richmond at a dance competition, leaving to head back to Stafford Saturday evening. After the 12z runs, is the rough start time still in the 7-9 PM range?

[Eskimo Joe]

Counties that border both sides of Mason-Dixon could push 14"+ per the 12z Euro.