scope1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 216 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely lead to widespread significant snow beginning late Saturday, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected Friday night through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ053>057-527-222115- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1200Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 216 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain possible. There is a high likelihood of at least 5 inches of snow, with over 10 inches possible. Ice accumulation is also possible. * WHERE...DC, and portions of central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday evening, becoming heavy at times late Saturday night with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is possible Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period wind chills in the teens and single digits is likely beginning Friday evening and lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Now is the time to make preparations for the storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel or charge your car before the storm hits. Check on elderly friends, family, and neighbors and don`t forget about pets or livestock during this prolonged cold period. && $$ DHOF/EST 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Point click is lovely Saturday NightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 90%.SundaySnow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%.Sunday NightSnow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1114 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 6Z GFS is an area wide crush job! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS is a crush job! Little better than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS is a crush job! Gets the sleet line just north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs still snowing 1pm on Monday!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS has some decent backend snow too. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs gets upper low action on Monday. Sweeeeeet! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS has some decent backend snow too. Ninja'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GFS has some decent backend snow too. All Hail the GFS! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Little better than 0z WRONG! Much better in spots with back end upper low on Monday. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS has some decent backend snow too. I just updated the maps, truly incredible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'll take the sleet, but not a half inch+ of freezing rain. eff that. Euro had like 0.7" here. That s way overdone I think. It will either be sleet or ultimately go to plain rain if that track holds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Am I blind or did I see no mention of the 6z NAM? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Am I blind or did I see no mention of the 6z NAM? . Very amped, we would not love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Am I blind or did I see no mention of the 6z NAM? . Yeah, it went north some, but the 6z Rgem went south and dropped a foot before changeover. Nam still far out. 3k Nam, though only at its limits ofc60hrs, looked south of 12k fwiw. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just read the Richmond AFD--Obvious concern but they think the Euro is overdoing the ice, which I said in my post earlier(it has almost three quarters of an inch here). The forecasters there are thinking a good chunk of that will be sleet, but expecting significant ice as well- potentially catastrophic in some places. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Was so tired last night that I couldn’t even make it to the 0z gfs run. When I woke up, I saw the “hot” flag on this thread so I knew this would be really good… or really bad. Looks like we’re in good shape! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs and euro came into much better agreement on both track and mix line. The only difference is gfs flips us back to snow and keeps it going for another few-several hours, while euro dry slots us after a brief bout of sleet. Dry slot may actually turn out to be freezing drizzle/snizzle. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS is an area wide crush job! Damn that's a nice precip max for areas that have been dry for awhile 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Damn that's a nice precip max for areas that have been dry for awhile It took you moving there to raise Winchester from the dead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Eps wasn't posted. Also Geps and Ukie ensemble. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 6Z GEFS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 How did the AI euro look? Off the TT maps looks to have trended slightly warmer but not sure if that made a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Brutally cold Tuesday am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Here’s a snippet from the latest winter wx discussion from WPC One area that is slowly becoming the most favorable location forheavy snowfall rates and potentially the most impressive snowfallamounts is the central Appalachians, northern VA, MD, and southernPA through early Sunday. As the upper level trough deepens over thecentral U.S. Saturday night, mid- level flow begins to increaseout ahead of it and meets the mid-level warm front stretching fromthe eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic. Several 00z modelshighlight increasing 700mb fgen over the eastern Ohio Valley andinto central VA by late D3, which supports the potential for anextended period of 1"/hr rates across much of eastern WV,central/northern VA, MD, and southern PA. The 0C warm nose maybegin to approach northern VA by the end of D3, but areas just tothe north could see 6-12" by sunrise on Sunday as precipitationlingering further into the day on Sunday. Snow ratios will also befavorable at onset and could potentially exceed 20:1 withinenhanced banding, which is well above the 11:1 climatology in theregion. Current WPC probabilities through D3 are medium to high(40-70%) for at least 8" of snow, this includes areas just west ofI-95 from D.C. to Baltimore. Heavy snow is expected to continuestretching into the Northeast and New England on Sunday, see WPC'sExtended Forecast Discussion for more. Also, see the Key Messageslinked at the bottom of this discussion. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: How did the AI euro look? Off the TT maps looks to have trended slightly warmer but not sure if that made a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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