January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Rgem looks good…maybe a touch warmer above but good precip through the critical time .

Yeah it's good. Significantly thumpy-er... general 5-6" OTG before 7am is what we need. Snows after that too if you buy it.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Once you accept it for what if is, it's a blast... literally... lol

I loved 2007. It was wild. Never saw sleet pile up like that before and once I accepted the forecast snow was off the table I embraced and enjoyed it. This storm will be an absolute glacier Tuesday morning down here no matter what happens. If you squint, sleet looks just like snow on the ground too hahaha

And sleet is so much harder to melt than snow. It can stick around for weeks in the shade 

[LP08]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah it's good. Significantly thumpy-er... general 5-6" OTG before 7am is what we need. Snows after that too if you buy it.

I want the deform sleet. Quicker coastal transfer (not that it will help you and me). 
 

 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Side note: The potential blizzard next weekend shown on the 6z gfs looks pretty cool, though.

Regarding this storm…nowcasting will be fun…especially the water vapor loop once this system sparks in the Deep South.

 

If somehow the GFS pulls out a win on this storm, that will become a very intriguing window given how adamant it is about it. If not, then I kinda have to just toss the GFS lol. But as for this, as psu said above... we need one more nudge to the GFS to really be talking about it pulling off that upset. That last change seems hard to find. ICON didn't really seem to buy it. Not that I trust the ICON that much, but we're at the range where if the GFS was right, you don't have a lot of time for everything to get on board. Even minor models. Still, I am very intrigued by the changes we're seeing so far today.

[StormyClearweather]

What a crazy map. On the bright side, ice looks like less of an issue for many further south. 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah it's good. Significantly thumpy-er... general 5-6" OTG before 7am is what we need. Snows after that too if you buy it.

Kuchie gets Baltimore to a foot. Would be a dream. But probably a couple inches too many. Knock off 2 and I still abscond with that a million percent of the time.

[Weather Will]

Great test for the NAM replacement.  RRFS is what the NWS must be leaning on....orientation of the precip shield is much better. DC gets heavier snow 4-9am Sunday.

[WesternFringe]

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Just noticed something on Pivotal that you don't see every day... 

10:1 12z 12k NAM:


vs Snow Depth 12z 12k NAM:



How often does the snow depth map look more impressive than the 10:1 snowfall map?  I'm guessing the depth includes sleet but 10:1 does not?

And/or ratios higher than 10:1?...

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Great test for the NAM replacement.  RRFS is what the NWS must be leaning on....orientation of the precip shield is much better. DC gets heavier snow 4-9am Sunday.

Internal snow ratio gives both DC and Baltimore 9 inches, FWIW. Kuchera is 8.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Kuchie gets Baltimore to a foot. Would be a dream. But probably a couple inches too many. Knock off 2 and I still abscond with that a million percent of the time.

I’m in the camp that the DC area gets the floor and the Baltimore area gets the ceiling.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RRFS

[NorthArlington101]

Did nobody post the warning text for us? Wow, we really are fatigued. Don't blame anyone. Only gonna bother sharing the one for DC/Balt

Quote

DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ053-054-527-232315-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne
Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast
Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet 
  accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far 
  northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice 
  accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, 
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. 
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday 
  night, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per 
  hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is 
  expected Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of 
  Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at 
  times. A prolonged period wind chills in the teens and single 
  digits is likely beginning this evening and lasting through the 
  middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use 
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

 

[caviman2201]

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

And/or ratios higher than 10:1?...

I don't think its that because Kuchera is lower than snow depth as well

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Great test for the NAM replacement.  RRFS is what the NWS must be leaning on....orientation of the precip shield is much better. DC gets heavier snow 4-9am Sunday.

I hope it's right. It is going to try to flip me back to snow Sunday afternoon. That would make the sleet tolerable at least. 

[clskinsfan]

[winter_warlock]

Wow that's a lot of warnings! And advisory's at one time!!  Covers almost a lil more than half of the United States!!!

[catoctin wx]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z RRFS

Seems to be doing a great job resolving the topography here. Especially the catoctin ridge running up between Frederick and Washington counties

[Kmlwx]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

RE: Freezing rain risk. See the response from @wxmvpete

 

 

Also not to rag a on a local met - but Doug K is not known for being the spitting image of 100% reliable  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Wow that's a lot of warnings! And advisory's at one time!!  Covers almost a lil more than half of the United States!!!

Is pink the warning? Because that’s covering everywhere but the eastern shore.

[hstorm]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I hope it's right. It is going to try to flip me back to snow Sunday afternoon. That would make the sleet tolerable at least. 

I noticed that too.  Sleet/mix line stalls and then creeps south, presumably with the coastal transfer.  Too late for anything meaningful for the DC metro but close.  Also, like the NAM, would only take a small south shift in the stall point to cause a meaningful change for the metros.  But a solid run regardless.

[winter_warlock]

I know that this may be me wishing it... But there have been many many storms in the past where the modeling said a change over was going to occur, but never did.  Would be nice if this was also one of those times.   Models are walking that very narrow line where the change over occurs 

 

[caviman2201]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is pink the warning? Because that’s covering everywhere but the eastern shore.

Eastern Shore is covered by Mt. Holly and they haven't issued warnings yet

[IronTy]

Out at DCL right now, WSW for 12-18" just came out.  45mph winds too.  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is pink the warning? Because that’s covering everywhere but the eastern shore.

Mt. Holly & Wakefield forecast for central and lower Delmarva

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is pink the warning? Because that’s covering everywhere but the eastern shore.

Pink is winter storm warnings. Blue I beleive is for the frigid temps 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is pink the warning? Because that’s covering everywhere but the eastern shore.

They haven’t issued yet there still under a watch 

[baltosquid]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

I know that this may be me wishing it... But there have been many many storms in the past where the modeling said a change over was going to occur, but never did.  Would be nice if this was also one of those times.   Models are walking that very narrow line where the change over occurs 

 

I think a changeover for everyone Baltimore and south is pretty much guaranteed. Backend isn't out of the question with a better transfer. But to get the sort of transfer that keeps us snowing the whole time feels nearly impossible. I'm hoping I'm wrong of course but all snow is not in my mind anymore. Still think with a wet thump and a slight adjustment to temps, we can get double digits in the metros or maybe even a foot (better chances in Baltimore) before mixing but that's at best like an upper quintile outcome.

[winter_warlock]

I noticed they got small craft advisorys for up and down the bay for gusts if 30 mph that combined with low visibility makes me wonder if that approaches blizzard  criteria

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

They haven’t issued yet there still under a watch 

Probably waiting since guidance isn't looking like it will be much and there seems to be more changes.

[Interstate]

19 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

If somehow the GFS pulls out a win on this storm, that will become a very intriguing window given how adamant it is about it. If not, then I kinda have to just toss the GFS lol. But as for this, as psu said above... we need one more nudge to the GFS to really be talking about it pulling off that upset. That last change seems hard to find. ICON didn't really seem to buy it. Not that I trust the ICON that much, but we're at the range where if the GFS was right, you don't have a lot of time for everything to get on board. Even minor models. Still, I am very intrigued by the changes we're seeing so far today.

Yes but the GFS has been creeping slowly to the northwest with the sleet line.