January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[eduggs]

35 minutes ago, TSG said:

I think it's having issues with snow vs sleet/zr as well? Look at this 6z sounding over DC @ 18z Sun.. maps say zr. That looks like snow to me unless there's a sneaky warm layer in there

 

As shown that's a snow sounding. But in reality when the ECMWF model sounding looks like that, it usually verifies as sleet. Either the model or more likely the 3rd party vendor lack the vertical resolution to properly depict the sounding. That's why the plot looks too linear and granular. Using the NAM as a reference, there's probably a warmer layer in there below 700mb.

[understudyhero]

try clearing your cache - it probably has a generic name and your browser is like "I have this snow map already"

[TSSN+]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Just wait until DT’s map comes out. Going to proactively take some Tylenol.

Hope I can find my computer cause also has grearth on it 

[clskinsfan]

56 minutes ago, konksw said:

Yes but I think most were hoping for the largest snow since 2016. That falls short of 2019 and at least one of last years much less hyped storms. 

It depends what impresses you about winter storms. I had 8 inches last February that was gone in 12 hours. The extended arctic outbreak that is coming with this one is going to be very impressive. We are going to have glaciers around for a month at least. And we are really just now in our prime snow climo for this area. My gut tells me we will get hit again and have snow on snow. 

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

If I get 18” of snow and sleet I’ll go nuts. I’m expecting more like 10” and 1-2” sleet. 

I mean it you could easily get a foot or more before flip. You’re further west so that will help 

[Interstate]

47 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Fingers crossed for 10" around Baltimore. So close to the 8-13 line so I'll take my chances.

You understand that is map could be wrong

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

If you’re going off just this 12z suite, maybe a bit? If you’re including some 6z and 0z in your super ensemble, maybe not? Think that’s about spot on what 6z euro had except for maybe southernmost zones?

And yeah, 1” of sleet seems quite possible on top of snow.

I honestly don't see anything that bad about it.  It's not outlandish.  I think people are tired and just ready to give off the ride and kinda give up

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Absolutely awful map cause I don’t have any other way to make a map till I locate my computer but my general idea for snow totals. 

3-6" for half of DC?  I'd be surprised if we don't clear 6".  I'd bump that 6-8" line SE.

[Shad]

DT is so awful.  He busts every winter forecast.

[stormtracker]

Just now, nj2va said:

3-6" for half of DC?  I'd be surprised if we don't clear 6".  I'd bump that 6-8" line SE.

Yeah, based on everything, that map is super whacked. 

[Interstate]

The NAM is comical... there are already decent changes only 6 hours in

[jayyy]

The NAM is comical... there are already decent changes only 6 hours in

That’s the best part about being unreliable.

[stormtracker]

Well NAM time.  I guess we kinda start looking to it for thermal clues.  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, based on everything, that map is super whacked. 

It’s a rough map. My computer is at my dads I’ll make a better one later but basically put the 6” line over dc for now. I’ll see if 18z confirms or if I wanna shift it some later when I make better map. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The NAM is comical... there are already decent changes only 6 hours in

? I see slightly better confluence..but what else?

[baltosquid]

NAM is running. Stronger confluence early (hr12) but have to see if it sticks around long enough.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

? I see slightly better confluence..but what else?

I am not saying for better or worse... but the on the H5 map in the west things are moving around by 50 miles or so... just have the 6 hour mark

[SnowGolfBro]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!

South trend!

[clskinsfan]

Onset is close enough to use the Meso's for thermals at the start of the storm. I am curious if some of us can start in the single digits at the surface. 

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

South trend!

To be honest it's more like a reversion to the mean from a model that was much more amplified and warm than any other model.

[BigCountry]

try clearing your cache - it probably has a generic name and your browser is like "I have this snow map already"

Yep, that was it. Thank you. I was freaking out when I saw 2-3. Haha

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

To be honest it's more like a reversion to the mean from a model that was much more amplified and warm than any other model.

Probably so, but the SREFs are better when you are 48 minutes from onset and not 48 hours. And even then they suck lol

[baltosquid]

Still same story at hr24. Looks like better confluence, maybe Baja is a tick slower/less interacting, no huge changes.

[das]

1 hour ago, understudyhero said:

What does sleet look like at 20 degrees like I can't imagine it.

Does it just instantly crust up the snow on the ground already?

It's like bb's falling from the sky.  And walking/driving in it is more like walking in sand than anything else.  It's pretty fascinating.  Also, it is a lightening-fast sledding surface.

[baltosquid]

At hr30, the low providing our confluence pulls back a little bit, heights up a hair in our region. But the NS piece over the dakotas that wall phase is less sharp and the central CONUS looks like it has a bit more confluence still. Those may help down the line. But I would rather have the confluence here tbh.

[JenkinsJinkies]

23 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You understand that is map could be wrong

That’s why I said I’ll take my chances.

[goodwidp]

"First call" map from Baltimore-area Met Justin Berk. 

Source: https://x.com/JustinWeather

 

 

 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, goodwidp said:

"First call" map from Baltimore-area Met Justin Berk. 

Source: https://x.com/JustinWeather

 

 

 

Seems like most seem to have this general idea.

[Interstate]

All of the user generated snow maps should be in the banter thread

[baltosquid]

Also Baja still a nudge SW here at 33. Cutoff at 561