stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z looks snow still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, TSSN+ said: Looks like mostly a hold? Tiny move north? That's what I got out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 @Bob ChillGFS showing the death band as well at hr 66 running pretty much the entirety of the 460 corridor. Interesting trend to say the least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z looks snow still That's cold smoke right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, psuhoffman said: I was somewhat giving you a hard time...but Frederick is in a shadow zone between the Catoctins and Parrs Ridge and doesn't do as much better than places closer to 95 as you would think. Places closer to DC and Baltimore like Damascus and Mt Airy actually do better. This is true. My elevation is wimpy…I’m like 350’ but it does shoot up quick towards the Watershed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z sounding is clean at DCA. Warmest is about -5C 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS is colder...initially...just kinda hard to discount the NAM thermals. It does tend to do well with thermals and can serve as a warning. But it is just outside the useful range. I'd just rather not totally ignore it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That's a loooooong precip shield at 18Z Sunday. Still all snow . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0z Monday, GFS has another slug about to roll in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS is colder...initially...just kinda hard to discount the NAM thermals. It does tend to do well with thermals and can serve as a warning. But it is just outside the useful range. I'd just rather not totally ignore it Gfs is colder cause the isn’t driving into Toronto 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS is colder...initially...just kinda hard to discount the NAM thermals. It does tend to do well with thermals and can serve as a warning. But it is just outside the useful range. I'd just rather not totally ignore it I mean, 18z sunday and the mix line is still south of EZF... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6z Monday heavy non snow precip still going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models. First comes through cold and all snow. Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent. 00Z Monday DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, LP08 said: I mean, 18z sunday and the mix line is still south of EZF... Yeah, either it's on to something or on something. On and island by itself tho, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS is a 1’+ for everyone, and I pretty much mea everyone. Hope it’s doing okay thermal wise. Nice to see the hires FV3 also chilly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Flips to sleet around 00Z monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 So the GFS holds. Good. Only problem is that it's kind of on an island. Let's hope it's right for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, MN Transplant said: GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models. First comes through cold and all snow. Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent. 00Z Monday DCA That's close, but that'd be snow at that point? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is a 1’+ for everyone, and I pretty much mea everyone. Hope it’s doing okay thermal wise. Nice to see the hires FV3 also chilly. Yeah, it's evolution is different...and it's a super long duration mod to heavy event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS is noise level changes...as close to a "hold" run as you will ever see at this range 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs is colder cause the isn’t driving into Toronto Hr78-84 has a LP going due east across TN. Is that gonna be more right or wrong but if it jumps from TN to the coast its helpful for the mids upstairs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, either it's on to something or on something. On and island by itself tho, so... Keeps the primary way way south...like SC compared to WVA. Thats a lonely island. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NW of 95 gets burried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 14 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Kinda looks like an ENE shift or even just east. Which I don’t mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: That's close, but that'd be snow at that point? mod to heavier precip would be I would think...light stuff mix but who cares. We know the drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol... Only concern with the de amp is it could mess up our initial thump if things go really poorly but that’s probably an irrational fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's close, but that'd be snow at that point? Yeah, 06z is sleet, but it isn't like we spike way too warm. Like I was talking about yesterday, the 850 low on the GFS is just more diffuse and reforms near or over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like might be little more after that can you post 102 total? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, TSSN+ said: Looks like might be little more after that can you post 102 total? Correct: 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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