January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

12z looks snow still

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Looks like mostly a hold? Tiny move north? 

That's what I got out of it

[Buddy1987]

@Bob ChillGFS showing the death band as well at hr 66 running pretty much the entirety of the 460 corridor. Interesting trend to say the least.

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

12z looks snow still

That's cold smoke right there. 

[87storms]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I was somewhat giving you a hard time...but Frederick is in a shadow zone between the Catoctins and Parrs Ridge and doesn't do as much better than places closer to 95 as you would think.  Places closer to DC and Baltimore like Damascus and Mt Airy actually do better.  

This is true. My elevation is wimpy…I’m like 350’ but it does shoot up quick towards the Watershed.

[MN Transplant]

12z sounding is clean at DCA.  Warmest is about -5C

[stormtracker]

GFS is colder...initially...just kinda hard to discount the NAM thermals.  It does tend to do well with thermals and can serve as a warning.   But it is just outside the useful range.  I'd just rather not totally ignore it

[IronTy]

That's a loooooong precip shield at 18Z Sunday.  Still all snow . 

[stormtracker]

0z Monday, GFS has another slug about to roll in.   

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is colder...initially...just kinda hard to discount the NAM thermals.  It does tend to do well with thermals and can serve as a warning.   But it is just outside the useful range.  I'd just rather not totally ignore it

Gfs is colder cause the isn’t driving into Toronto 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is colder...initially...just kinda hard to discount the NAM thermals.  It does tend to do well with thermals and can serve as a warning.   But it is just outside the useful range.  I'd just rather not totally ignore it

I mean, 18z sunday and the mix line is still south of EZF...

[stormtracker]

6z Monday heavy non snow precip still going on 

[MN Transplant]

GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models.  First comes through cold and all snow.  Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent.  

00Z Monday DCA

[stormtracker]

Just now, LP08 said:

I mean, 18z sunday and the mix line is still south of EZF...

Yeah, either it's on to something or on something.   On and island by itself tho, so...

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is a 1’+ for everyone, and I pretty much mea everyone. Hope it’s doing okay thermal wise. Nice to see the hires FV3 also chilly.

[IronTy]

Flips to sleet around 00Z monday. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

So the GFS holds. Good. Only problem is that it's kind of on an island. Let's hope it's right for once. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models.  First comes through cold and all snow.  Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent.  

00Z Monday DCA

That's close, but that'd be snow at that point?

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is a 1’+ for everyone, and I pretty much mea everyone. Hope it’s doing okay thermal wise. Nice to see the hires FV3 also chilly.

Yeah, it's evolution is different...and it's a super long duration mod to heavy event

[psuhoffman]

GFS is noise level changes...as close to a "hold" run as you will ever see at this range 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is colder cause the isn’t driving into Toronto 

Hr78-84 has a LP going due east across TN.  Is that gonna be more right or wrong but if it jumps from TN to the coast its helpful for the mids upstairs

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, either it's on to something or on something.   On and island by itself tho, so...

Keeps the primary way way south...like SC compared to WVA.  Thats a lonely island.

[TSSN+]

NW of 95 gets burried 

 

[NorthArlington101]

[baltosquid]

Kinda looks like an ENE shift or even just east. Which I don’t mind.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That's close, but that'd be snow at that point?

mod to heavier precip would be I would think...light stuff mix but who cares. We know the drill 

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol...

Only concern with the de amp is it could mess up our initial thump if things go really poorly but that’s probably an irrational fear. 

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's close, but that'd be snow at that point?

Yeah, 06z is sleet, but it isn't like we spike way too warm.  Like I was talking about yesterday, the 850 low on the GFS is just more diffuse and reforms near or over us.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like might be little more after that can you post 102 total? 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Looks like might be little more after that can you post 102 total? 

Correct: