January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[scope1]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely lead to widespread significant
snow beginning late Saturday, with the potential for ice Sunday
especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95.
In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very
cold temperatures are expected Friday night through the middle of
next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ053>057-527-222115-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1200Z/
District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne
Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast
Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King
George-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas
Park-
216 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain possible.
  There is a high likelihood of at least 5 inches of snow, with over
  10 inches possible. Ice accumulation is also possible.

* WHERE...DC, and portions of central, northeast, northern, and
  southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday
  evening, becoming heavy at times late Saturday night with rates of
  one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or
  freezing rain is possible Sunday. Significant icing is possible
  especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or
  less is possible at times. A prolonged period wind chills in the
  teens and single digits is likely beginning Friday evening and
  lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills
  possible at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Now is
the time to make preparations for the storm. This includes getting
any necessary groceries or medicines that you may not be able to
access this weekend into early next week due to any potential
closure. Have an emergency kit in the car including extra batteries,
a flashlight, and blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure
to refuel or charge your car before the storm hits. Check on elderly
friends, family, and neighbors and don`t forget about pets or
livestock during this prolonged cold period.

&&

$$

DHOF/EST

[AU74]

[jayyy]

Point click is lovely

Saturday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday
Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[davidjd1114]

.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS is an area wide crush job! 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS is a crush job! 

Little better than 0z

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS is a crush job! 

Gets the sleet line just north of Baltimore. 

[mitchnick]

Gfs still snowing 1pm on Monday!!

[CAPE]

GFS has some decent backend snow too.

[mitchnick]

Gfs gets upper low action on Monday.  Sweeeeeet!

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS has some decent backend snow too.

Ninja'd 

[snowmagnet]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

GFS has some decent backend snow too.

All Hail the GFS! 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Little better than 0z

WRONG! Much better in spots with back end upper low on Monday. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS has some decent backend snow too.

I just updated the maps, truly incredible run.

[CAPE]

I'll take the sleet, but not a half inch+ of freezing rain. eff that. Euro had like 0.7" here. That s way overdone I think. It will either be sleet or ultimately go to plain rain if that track holds.

 

[mitchnick]

[AmericanWxFreak]

Am I blind or did I see no mention of the 6z NAM?


.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Am I blind or did I see no mention of the 6z NAM?


.

Very amped, we would not love that. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Am I blind or did I see no mention of the 6z NAM?


.

Yeah, it went north some, but the 6z Rgem went south and dropped a foot before changeover. 

Nam still far out. 3k Nam, though only at its limits ofc60hrs, looked south of 12k fwiw.

[CAPE]

Just read the Richmond AFD--Obvious concern but they think the Euro is overdoing the ice, which I said in my post earlier(it has almost three quarters of an inch here). The forecasters there are thinking a good chunk of that will be sleet, but expecting significant ice as well- potentially catastrophic in some places.

[Terpeast]

Was so tired last night that I couldn’t even make it to the 0z gfs run. When I woke up, I saw the “hot” flag on this thread so I knew this would be really good… or really bad.

Looks like we’re in good shape!

[Terpeast]

Gfs and euro came into much better agreement on both track and mix line. The only difference is gfs flips us back to snow and keeps it going for another few-several hours, while euro dry slots us after a brief bout of sleet. Dry slot may actually turn out to be freezing drizzle/snizzle. 

[aldie 22]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS is an area wide crush job! 

 

 

 

 

Damn that's a nice precip max for areas that have been dry for awhile 

[Ji]

Damn that's a nice precip max for areas that have been dry for awhile 

It took you moving there to raise Winchester from the dead

[mitchnick]

Eps wasn't posted. Also Geps and Ukie ensemble. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

How did the AI euro look? Off the TT maps looks to have trended slightly warmer but not sure if that made a difference. 

[Weather Will]

Brutally cold Tuesday am.

[snowfan]

Here’s a snippet from the latest winter wx discussion from WPC

One area that is slowly becoming the most favorable location for
heavy snowfall rates and potentially the most impressive snowfall
amounts is the central Appalachians, northern VA, MD, and southern
PA through early Sunday. As the upper level trough deepens over the
central U.S. Saturday night, mid- level flow begins to increase
out ahead of it and meets the mid-level warm front stretching from
the eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic. Several 00z models
highlight increasing 700mb fgen over the eastern Ohio Valley and
into central VA by late D3, which supports the potential for an
extended period of 1"/hr rates across much of eastern WV,
central/northern VA, MD, and southern PA. The 0C warm nose may
begin to approach northern VA by the end of D3, but areas just to
the north could see 6-12" by sunrise on Sunday as precipitation
lingering further into the day on Sunday. Snow ratios will also be
favorable at onset and could potentially exceed 20:1 within
enhanced banding, which is well above the 11:1 climatology in the
region. Current WPC probabilities through D3 are medium to high
(40-70%) for at least 8" of snow, this includes areas just west of
I-95 from D.C. to Baltimore. Heavy snow is expected to continue
stretching into the Northeast and New England on Sunday, see WPC's
Extended Forecast Discussion for more. Also, see the Key Messages
linked at the bottom of this discussion.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

How did the AI euro look? Off the TT maps looks to have trended slightly warmer but not sure if that made a difference.