January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Just want to point out / take a step back that regarding the potential evolution, even though the precipitation and outcomes look similar, we still have a long way to go in order to understand how this is going to unfold dynamically.

Any idea why all these H5 changes aren’t really translating to the surface?

[anotherman]

It’s getting away from us? The latest NBM is 12-16”… sorry to be blunt, but what the hell are you talking about?


.

Maybe for him. You’ve got more latitude, I think, so a different feeling.

[stormtracker]

Everybody should just probably go eat dinner, take a break.  We've been at this for hours on end and I don't care, old young...shit is taxing.   See yall at 9

[aldie 22]

23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Fall line climo will likely come into play with this one. One things for sure, it’s a QPF bomb. I’m really serious when I say areas that stay all snow will likely see 15-20” and could even get close to 2’. Best spots right now I would put across the M/D with the eastern most area near @mappy and as far north as Harrisburg. Southern edge for that potential is probably the Parrs Ridge zone down Rt27 towards Damascus/Mt Airy and points northwest. 
 

Map below is prelim thoughts and NOT my official forecast. Just an outline of thoughts right now. If you are northwest of the red line, I believe you’ll see 10+”, if you are inside the purple, I believe 12-18” is a good forecast right now. Elevations above 800’ have best chance to see 15-20”. Local maxima of 23” is the initial thought. 
 

Note, this is manly for this subforum and some of PA. I didn’t try too hard for areas outside the sub, but I will for full forecast. 

Thanks for sneaking me inside the circle out by Winchester

[poprock49]

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS Ens really struggle to show mixing/sleet.

Yeah, I'm suspicious of it because of how large a swath of high totals that is. Of course, that's partly because it's an ensemble, but it has central/southern VA and even northern NC doing really well (like yesterday's runs) while having similar amounts in Baltimore. If this is a flawed analysis please feel free to let me know lol, just thought I'd take a stab at it!

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

It’s getting away from us? The latest NBM is 12-16”… sorry to be blunt, but what the hell are you talking about?


.

They’re talking east of the fall line and DC.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

10 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Maybe for him. You’ve got more latitude, I think, so a different feeling.

Yeah just bleeding each run but like I said, moderate to perhaps still heavy snow and then ice without any plain rain is still fun.  I meant those big boy runs were getting away from us on the coastal plain.  

[Dabuckeyes]

Where is Stormyweather with the Mogreps?

[winter_warlock]

Tony pann  And  Ava of WBAL tv talks about possible mixing and about  noaa sending reconnaissance planes  to gather better data for the 00z runs ..

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18QGwW7Ryy/

 

Tonights runs could be  interesting to say the least!!

[winter_warlock]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Everybody should just probably go eat dinner, take a break.  We've been at this for hours on end and I don't care, old young...shit is taxing.   See yall at 9

Amen brother!!!!

[csnavywx]

Eesh.

[jayyy]

Who’s ready for some 00z runs with newly ingested data?

[Solution Man]

Lots of possibilities out there. Tomorrow is the day to at least understand what will happen. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Eesh.

Not sure why it was more north with that h5 look it’s not as phased. Interesting stuff 

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z SREF thru 1am Sunday

[jayyy]

WB 21Z SREF thru 1am Sunday

Waaaaay too far out for the SREFs

[wxmeddler]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any idea why all these H5 changes aren’t really translating to the surface?

So, they are. The thing is that this is by far an overrunning event rather than a typical CCB coastal event. These types of over-running events don't happen too often, and 95% of the time lead to mix or rain. Now, that said, this storm is different in that we have an extremely cold airmass embedding itself over the area on Friday. So things to look forward for are:
1. How / where does the phasing happen over the southern plains. The faster the Sub-Tropical Cut-Off (relative to the pacific stream s/w) ejection the better.
2. The placement and strength of the 850 low over the OHV. The weaker the better, though this is related to #1
3. The strength and more particularly the depth of the cold air wedge that develops on Friday. The stronger the better obviously.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Waaaaay too far out for the SREFs

Ya hour 6 is probably their range 

[WhiteoutMD]

https://x.com/i/status/2014108294885900466

[wtkidz]

Ensembles /AI vrs the Ops. Who wins….

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO....incredibly cold Tuesday am.....air and wind chills.

[wxmeddler]

14 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Eesh.

Yep, not sure we should be celebrating or jumping off hypothetical bridges when we have this much run to run inconsistencies still.

I've been telling stakeholders 12z Friday guidance is "lock-in" time since Monday AM. 

Patience.

[snowfan]

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO....incredibly cold Tuesday am.....air and wind chills.

-22 in Leesburg lmao. Going to be cold AF for sure, but this is crazy output.

[SnowenOutThere]

Will forgo the analysis post for today, frankly these recent runs have got me rather confused and we got the legendary data ingestion for 0z Will probably aim for 12z runs tomorrow as when I make it. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Eesh.

Wow, talk about variability especially the NS.  So just a cursory look at this loop, the ridging, etc., along the East Coast doesn't look to change all that much.  The southwest trough bounces around.  But that NS trough...holy cow, it has a much different look at 18Z with that extension much farther west along the US/CAN border!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm pretty skeptical of the zr output for now. Imo, it would be more sleet than zr. I'll check 18z soundings when they come out but if they aren't much different then 12z I expect much more sleet than the panels posted above

Same.  A couple of 18Z Euro maps earlier showed DC with like 0.3"+ of ice accretion with amounts pushing 0.75" farther south.  I just don't see that level of freezing rain.  Would think that's mostly sleet.

[csnavywx]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Wow, talk about variability especially the NS.  So just a cursory look at this loop, the ridging, etc., along the East Coast doesn't look to change all that much.  The southwest trough bounces around.  But that NS trough...holy cow, it has a much different look at 18Z with that extension much farther west along the US/CAN border!

It does on the GFS, which tells me (regardless of whether this is correct verbatim), that we may not be done with meaningful adjustments there.

[TSSN+]

I hope we don’t have to worry about power outages across a large area. Not even from the storm but the storm plus the brutal cold air for days may tax power grids that already maybe damaged due to the storm. 

[anotherman]

I hope we don’t have to worry about power outages across a large area. Not even from the storm but the storm plus the brutal cold air for days may tax power grids that already maybe damaged due to the storm. 

This is my concern.