“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Go Kart Mozart]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s weird wording to me. H5 was always going to slot with the trough to the west. I assume they mean H7, but it was always an isentropic push anyway…the saturated column is cold so it’s all snow below the relatively warmer nose.

Unless they’re worried about Monday not panning out with northerly bumps. 

That's an interesting point.  When I look at the soundings in the regions depicted as sleet on the maps, I see the only violation of 0c is the narrow nose right at 700mb.  In reality, I wonder if it is sleet mixed with snow that forms below 700mb?

[CT Rain]

Can we stop with the stupid Kuchera maps?

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

LFG 6z GFS Kuchera 6Z Euro depth

I don't get the reduced snow depths along the immediate shores.  The warm air is not coming in from the ocean, it is coming from the SW at 850mb and above.

[Prismshine Productions]

Can we stop with the stupid Kuchera maps?

Kuchie will be more accurate than 10:1 with this airmass

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[dryslot]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Kuchie will be more accurate than 10:1 with this airmass

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That will depend on the location, Some areas even though they have higher qpf numbers, The ratios will be lower.

[Prismshine Productions]

HRRR more juiced through 21

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[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kuchie will be more accurate than 10:1 with this airmass

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It depends where. They are inflated because of the lower level cold. They will be wayyyyy too high on the northern side where temps are hanging near 0F and 5F. 
 

QPF maps are the way to go in all snow events. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I feel like we will need 1.2” liquid for those totals so I’m on the under. Even 15:1 event total for these amounts is high end. I’m on the 10-15” train.

KBED

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kuchie will be more accurate than 10:1 with this airmass

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Just use the 10:1 and we can all just add 50% to it.

[Spaizzo]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kuchie will be more accurate than 10:1 with this airmass

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He’s a meteorologist for heavens sake.

[Prismshine Productions]

It depends where. They are inflated because of the lower level cold. They will be wayyyyy too high on the northern side where temps are hanging near 0F and 5F. 
 
QPF maps are the way to go in all snow events. 

Arctic sand cutting ratios right?

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[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just use the 10:1 and we can all just add 50% to it.

That's how i figure totals by projected qpf to ratios for past events that are similar.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Can we stop with the stupid Kuchera maps?

Dude I said that yesterday. It’s so dumb.

[SouthCoastMA]

UKMET and RGDPS the coldest solutions. Likely on crack.  Let's get a couple messenger tics on the big boys starting at 12z

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Can we stop with the stupid Kuchera maps?

Can we have a degreed Met add a substitute? What's your map for CT. Did you drink too much last night? 

[dryslot]

I think kuchie is just a straight 22:1.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, bairn said:

Luv it, Steve

Anyone out on the ice today? 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just post the 10:1. And do the ratio math for your own location

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I think kuchie is just a straight 22:1.

Fuk um. I will show everything. Don't care 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Just post the 10:1. And do the ratio math for your own location

Ridiculous 

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can we have a degreed Met add a substitute? What's your map for CT. Did you drink too much last night? 

I have 10-18" for the state. Just post the straight QPF and adjust as necessary in your head based on expected ratio. They're just not good.

[Damage In Tolland]

Some spots are absolutely getting 20-24” by Tuesday morning when it finally ends 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I have 10-18" for the state. Just post the straight QPF and adjust as necessary in your head based on expected ratio. They're just not good.

Let's fucking go

[Prismshine Productions]

I have 10-18" for the state. Just post the straight QPF and adjust as necessary in your head based on expected ratio. They're just not good.

Why do you think Kuchie struggles like it does? Honest question

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[subdude]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

14-18” here unless Ray is right about ORH hills enhancement 

Sounds good. My wife's an RN and I have to get her to the hospital Monday morning for 7:30. That should be fun. 

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

LFG 6z GFS Kuchera 6Z Euro depth

It's really showing a good amount here in Connecticut. Both of those maps could easily get us to almost 20 in. At least the northern half of Connecticut. There's been a lot of confusion when we're talking about kuchera it's no ratios. It is going to be very cold so I'm assuming there will be a higher ratio, 15 to 1... 20 to 1?

[dryslot]

Good way to learn about different snow situations for your location is to take good measurements and do core samples melt to get the LE then do the math for the ratios.

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr gonna savage 

[ScituateMA]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Why do you think Kuchie struggles like it does? Honest question

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Because the algorithm used to calculate the kuchera ratio is often too bullish. Its an extremely fluid calculation. While the ratio only takes temperature into account there are numerous other factors which have significant effect on the final ratio. 

Doesnt account for Humidity aloft, Dendritic growth, compaction and multiple other factors

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr gonna savage 

I love when you talk dirty