EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That trend is more worrisome if we had a garbage airmass. The MA forum posted comparisons. EC AI 6z actually a touch south of 0z and increased snow on the southern edge. 6z EURO held. At least for now the rapid northern trend has stopped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yup ... nothing's going to happen here Just wait until we get the ice storm warnings cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 At least we have something to root for this weekend. The Bills are in a lot of trouble, thats for sure.I am pissed off our owner decided to fire Sean IN DENVER right after the gameSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Channel 5 WCVB is the first to sound the alarm 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: That looks nicer. Keep ticking north. 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Looks like 12"+ for most of the region when you combine all modeling. Only “concern” at this point is Arctic sand cutting ratios. We may be snowing around 0F here. That said, the qpf numbers are compelling. Region wide crushah, just like the ones I used to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM This is as warm s it gets at 850mb 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, millpondwx said: For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM This is as warm s it gets at 850mb Do the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, mattm4242 said: Channel 5 WCVB is the first to sound the alarm That seems aggressive. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, millpondwx said: For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM This is as warm s it gets at 850mb Need to look at 700mb for the warm push and surface temps are not relevant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Do the Euro At least the AI version nudged colder than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 37 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It’s not done. So where are you seeing this finally ending up as far the northerly ticks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, millpondwx said: For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM This is as warm s it gets at 850mb Easterly inflow @ 850 over that airmass? Take 'em up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That seems aggressive. It's a broadbrush cover you ass preliminary assessment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That seems aggressive. With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ. Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's a broadbrush cover you ass preliminary assessment. I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least 1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ. Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right? This type of system is not gonna produce 2’ in a broad area. You want to see the coastal take over and slow to even entertain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013? The mix never made it to the CT shore in 2013. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least 1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its 1.6"@15:1 would do it on the coast...Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Prismshine Productions said: 1.6"@15:1 would do it on the coast... Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk It’s hard to average 15:1 in a coastal. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Guys driving, how does the EPS 0z run look? colder or warmer? same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013? That was a different beast. You’re not gonna get a massive convective band with latent heat release in this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: Guys driving, how does the EPS 0z run look? colder or warmer? same? Mixes to SNH. Toaster bath. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Remarkably negative comments here even for this group of Eeyores. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mixes to SNH. Toaster bath. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing. Yeah, I wanna be able to smell the sleet....just make sure it is after I have done most of the snow removal and of course it has already dumped 10-15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Only mixing between Sunday and Monday will be Bacardi with coke 5 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least 1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its ~10" Cape/SC and 10-20" elsewhere would've worked as a broadbrush. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Let's pretend it's going to fo up the Hudson Valley and Temps will bounce from 0 to 50 on Sunday and back to 0 come Monday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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