“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[EastonSN+]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That trend is more worrisome if we had a garbage airmass.

The MA forum posted comparisons.

EC AI 6z actually a touch south of 0z and increased snow on the southern edge.

6z EURO held.

At least for now the rapid northern trend has stopped.

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ... nothing's going to happen here  

Just wait until we get the ice storm warnings cranking 

[Prismshine Productions]

At least we have something to root for this weekend.  The Bills are in a lot of trouble, thats for sure.

I am pissed off our owner decided to fire Sean IN DENVER right after the game

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[mattm4242]

Channel 5 WCVB is the first to sound the alarm 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That looks nicer.  Keep ticking north.

 

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Looks like 12"+ for most of the region when you combine all modeling.

Only “concern” at this point is Arctic sand cutting ratios. We may be snowing around 0F here. That said, the qpf numbers are compelling. Region wide crushah, just like the ones I used to know.

[millpondwx]

 

For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM

 

This is as warm s it gets at 850mb

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, millpondwx said:

 

For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM

 

This is as warm s it gets at 850mb

Do the Euro

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

Channel 5 WCVB is the first to sound the alarm 

That seems aggressive. 

[weatherwiz]

It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013?

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, millpondwx said:

 

For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM

 

This is as warm s it gets at 850mb

Need to look at 700mb for the warm push and surface temps are not relevant

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Do the Euro

At least the AI version nudged colder than 0z.

[Snowcrazed71]

37 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s not done.

So where are you seeing this finally ending up as far the northerly ticks?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, millpondwx said:

 

For folks worried about mixing, this is the starting point Sunday AM

 

This is as warm s it gets at 850mb

Easterly inflow @ 850 over that airmass? Take 'em up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That seems aggressive. 

It's a broadbrush cover you ass preliminary assessment.

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That seems aggressive. 

With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ.  Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a broadbrush cover you ass preliminary assessment.

I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least  1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ.  Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right?

This type of system is not gonna produce 2’ in a broad area. You want to see the coastal take over and slow to even entertain it.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013?

The mix never made it to the CT shore in 2013. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least  1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its 

1.6"@15:1 would do it on the coast...

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[CoastalWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

1.6"@15:1 would do it on the coast...

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It’s hard to average 15:1 in a coastal. Not happening. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Guys driving, how does the EPS 0z run look? colder or warmer? same?

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is feasible the immediate shore does experience some mixing. This is where its much better to look at forecast soundings then fixed levels (such as 850 or 700). You can get very sneaky, subtle warm layers. There are also other processes to consider as well, for example, if there is a tremendous amount of latent heat release ongoing that can negatively impact snow growth production and result in poor enough snowgrowth that precip is almost sleet like. I believe something like that happened in 2013?

That was a different beast. You’re not gonna get a massive convective band with latent heat release in this storm.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Guys driving, how does the EPS 0z run look? colder or warmer? same?

Mixes to SNH. Toaster bath.

[J Paul Gordon]

Remarkably negative comments here even for this group of Eeyores. 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mixes to SNH. Toaster bath.

thank you

[ORH_wxman]

What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.

Yeah, I wanna be able to smell the sleet....just make sure it is after I have done most of the snow removal and of course it has already dumped 10-15 inches

[weatherwiz]

Only mixing between Sunday and Monday will be Bacardi with coke 

[SouthCoastMA]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean nothing supports 2’ really. I’d want to see like at least  1.7” QPF modeled in a broad area to entertain its 

~10" Cape/SC and 10-20" elsewhere would've worked as a broadbrush.

[J Paul Gordon]

Let's pretend it's going to fo up the Hudson Valley and Temps will bounce from 0 to 50 on Sunday and back to 0 come Monday!