“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Prismshine Productions]

18z is on the bottom 

Didn't realize til after it uploaded

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[weathafella]

Skynet (Euro) looks great!

[dryslot]

18z Euro op looks mighty fine i would say.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro op looks mighty fine i would say.

Yeah this looks like a boatload of moisture while holding taint at bay.  Double digits 

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Yeah this looks like a boatload of moisture while holding taint at bay.  Double digits 

Yup

[CarverWX]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro op looks mighty fine i would say.

Pic?

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

18z euro AI looks very close to 12z

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

A bit less here then 12z but looks good down into SNE .75-1.0"

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

18z euro AI looks very close to 12z

Splitting hairs with 0.10" or so between the two, Looks good.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro and euro AI both look great here. 10-15”

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro op looks mighty fine i would say.

First time tracking a big dog from up here. Hanging on your every post.  

[Prismshine Productions]

First time tracking a big dog from up here. Hanging on your every post.  

Yeah same

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[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First time tracking a big dog from up here. Hanging on your every post.  

You'll be happy there verbatim this run.

[ORH_wxman]

Looked a bit juicier than 12z down in SNE....but the overall idea wasn't too different. It's not cranking the secondary in the midlevels because of the issues we talked about earlier (too much ridging getting into S Quebec)...it's just a really juiced cold SWFE. 

But likely widespread double digits in that kind of look (10-16" type event)

[dryslot]

Looks like it wants to morph more into a SWFE on some guidance, There is usually a ceiling with those on totals but nothing to really down play unless some were looking for something more substantial.

[weathafella]

Most SWFEs don’t have this duration of precipitation.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like it wants to morph more into a SWFE on some guidance, There is usually a ceiling with those on totals but nothing to really down play unless some were looking for something more substantial.

You know they are.  
This is a 8”-12” max event for most which is far from pedestrian. 

[ineedsnow]

EPS looks great!!!

[WinterSnow]

It's wild to be looking at similar snow totals in the same storm between my former home in OK and my new home here. Bring it on!

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Most SWFEs don’t have this duration of precipitation.

It's a longer duration SWFE, but basically same mechanics. Since we have all this gulf moisture and the cold dome is extreme, we can wring out a lot of precip versus the usual 0.5-0.75 we normally do. It would be our biggest region-wide storm in years regardless. 

There's still a chance we can trend it higher, but you'd need that secondary stuff. 

[ineedsnow]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Most SWFEs don’t have this duration of precipitation.

Yeah typical SWFE is generally 10 hours with a few hours of heavy rates. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

What does the Euro Narcan say?

[Baroclinic Zone]

What do we know about the ICON-EPS ensemble?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a longer duration SWFE, but basically same mechanics. Since we have all this gulf moisture and the cold dome is extreme, we can wring out a lot of precip versus the usual 0.5-0.75 we normally do. It would be our biggest region-wide storm in years regardless. 

There's still a chance we can trend it higher, but you'd need that secondary stuff. 

This system is going to be a slightly longer duration 12/16/2007.

[SouthCoastMA]

Definitely trending away from secondary on ECM-AI

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This system is going to be a slightly longer duration 12/16/2007.

 No complaints from me if that happens. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Definitely trending away from secondary on ECM-AI

We knew. However, the actually overrunning portion is beefing up. Still could easily produce a foot 

[Prismshine Productions]

We knew. However, the actually overrunning portion is beefing up. Still could easily produce a foot 

Even if it only drops 8-10" still a solid total adder considering how this winter has gone so far

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