“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

inch of qpf for most of SNE

Actually develops the storm in time for a CCB assist in eastern ma.

1.5 qpf south of boston

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit.

Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take.

It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm.

I just have to check if you’re being real here or are you being a parody of yourself? Clarity would be helpful in these stressful times.

[ineedsnow]

for weather going 12 to 18 for SNE now 

[weatherwiz]

1-1.5" of QPF in that airmass, especially if you're maximizing lift is going to produce some significant snowfall accumulations. That would certainly be high end...unless we're using something like 2-3 feet to define high end lol

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d say most solutions have been closer to 10 if you toss the out of control Kuchera maps 

Are you expecting shitty ratios?

[dryslot]

12z Euro really slow loading.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d say most solutions have been closer to 10 if you toss the out of control Kuchera maps 

I appreciate this perspective… the vibes here seem to expect a linear continuation of increasing sensible impacts… imo 18” anywhere is like top 10% case requiring robust coastal redevelopment

[ineedsnow]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Actually develops the storm in time for a CCB assist in eastern ma.

1.5 qpf south of boston

1.5 qpf in the CCB.. probably atleast 15 to 1 ratios or higher and you meh it.. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I just have to check if you’re being real here or are you being a parody of yourself? Clarity would be helpful in these stressful times.

I didn’t know not jumping immediately to a double digit floor was a bad thing lol.

Just trying to be realistic 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Euro really slow loading.

Stop scaring me 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit.

Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take.

It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm.

Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm. 

[Henry's Weather]

Not to say that a foot isn’t grounds for excitement 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Euro really slow loading.

its coming 

[MegaMike]

13z NBM will appease most of the forum... For a mean at D4.5, I think this is impressive. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I mean we have a 12-18”+ storm for dc to Portland Maine and that’s a mid size snow storm . Wow these don’t grow on trees .. obviously more than 10:1 maps as meteorology tells you there’s a very good chance ratios will be higher than 10:1

Agree 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Stop scaring me 

lol, Its missing a bunch of panels.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm. 

Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off.

I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm. 

I'll take QPF underdone for $1000, please

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off.

I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon

10-20" seems possible, closer to the latter if the secondary gets going

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off.

I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon

Weren’t we just discussing the euroAI solution? Ineedsnow said over an inch for all of SNE and you said it’s a mid sized snowstorm. 
 

I agree some solution like the Icon is fairly mid…maybe 8-12ish…but any of these that are producing inflow and 1-1.5” of QPF is major at minimum. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro is a good bit north of 6z

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree 

It's way too early for exact calls and snowfall maps. But we put out a first assessment for the public for a general threat of 8"+ region wide - similar to the first one you did with that last storm that had 6"+/<6". I think thats reasonable atm. 

[ineedsnow]

missing panels but the Euro looks like a big hit

[nbweather]

6 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

13z NBM will appease most of the forum... For a mean at D4.5, I think this is impressive. 

DESI also offers the hourly dynamic snow to liquid ratio that is used in the NBM as a field.

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

missing panels but the Euro looks like a big hit

Missing the critical ones but reading the tea leaves its looks good.

[Damage In Tolland]

Mixing issues coast ?

[dryslot]

0.75-1.0"+ on the Euro

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Mixing issues coast ?

Sleet to tolland

[Pennfisherman]

10 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

13z NBM will appease most of the forum... For a mean at D4.5, I think this is impressive. 

Impressive. Does this use 10:1 or is this taking all models with all ratios into account.

[OrangeCTWX]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mixing issues coast ?

Hope not.