TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: inch of qpf for most of SNE Actually develops the storm in time for a CCB assist in eastern ma. 1.5 qpf south of boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit. Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take. It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm. I just have to check if you’re being real here or are you being a parody of yourself? Clarity would be helpful in these stressful times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 for weather going 12 to 18 for SNE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1-1.5" of QPF in that airmass, especially if you're maximizing lift is going to produce some significant snowfall accumulations. That would certainly be high end...unless we're using something like 2-3 feet to define high end lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d say most solutions have been closer to 10 if you toss the out of control Kuchera maps Are you expecting shitty ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12z Euro really slow loading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d say most solutions have been closer to 10 if you toss the out of control Kuchera maps I appreciate this perspective… the vibes here seem to expect a linear continuation of increasing sensible impacts… imo 18” anywhere is like top 10% case requiring robust coastal redevelopment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Actually develops the storm in time for a CCB assist in eastern ma. 1.5 qpf south of boston 1.5 qpf in the CCB.. probably atleast 15 to 1 ratios or higher and you meh it.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I just have to check if you’re being real here or are you being a parody of yourself? Clarity would be helpful in these stressful times. I didn’t know not jumping immediately to a double digit floor was a bad thing lol. Just trying to be realistic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, dryslot said: 12z Euro really slow loading. Stop scaring me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think some folks are overselling this thing a bit. Obviously, these are great solutions and everyone would take. It’s certainly not high end though? As modeled. A nice, mid sized snowstorm. Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm. 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not to say that a foot isn’t grounds for excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, dryslot said: 12z Euro really slow loading. its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13z NBM will appease most of the forum... For a mean at D4.5, I think this is impressive. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I mean we have a 12-18”+ storm for dc to Portland Maine and that’s a mid size snow storm . Wow these don’t grow on trees .. obviously more than 10:1 maps as meteorology tells you there’s a very good chance ratios will be higher than 10:1 Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Stop scaring me lol, Its missing a bunch of panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm. Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off. I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm. I'll take QPF underdone for $1000, please 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off. I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon 10-20" seems possible, closer to the latter if the secondary gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Obviously if we get a CCB assist in the second half, all bets are off. I think mid sized was a bad choice of words, probably should have just said, not upper echelon Weren’t we just discussing the euroAI solution? Ineedsnow said over an inch for all of SNE and you said it’s a mid sized snowstorm. I agree some solution like the Icon is fairly mid…maybe 8-12ish…but any of these that are producing inflow and 1-1.5” of QPF is major at minimum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Euro is a good bit north of 6z 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree It's way too early for exact calls and snowfall maps. But we put out a first assessment for the public for a general threat of 8"+ region wide - similar to the first one you did with that last storm that had 6"+/<6". I think thats reasonable atm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 missing panels but the Euro looks like a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbweather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, MegaMike said: 13z NBM will appease most of the forum... For a mean at D4.5, I think this is impressive. DESI also offers the hourly dynamic snow to liquid ratio that is used in the NBM as a field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, ineedsnow said: missing panels but the Euro looks like a big hit Missing the critical ones but reading the tea leaves its looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Mixing issues coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 0.75-1.0"+ on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Mixing issues coast ? Sleet to tolland 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennfisherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, MegaMike said: 13z NBM will appease most of the forum... For a mean at D4.5, I think this is impressive. Impressive. Does this use 10:1 or is this taking all models with all ratios into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mixing issues coast ? Hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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