Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[mikem81]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=DOX-N0C-1-48-100-usa-rad

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if that creeped down into Northern Westchester. Between 5-6” already and the big boy rates haven’t even come yet 

These are the big boy rates right now. There might be higher QPF hours coming, but probably not higher snow/hr. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

There is a precip hole over south Jersey so the lighter rates probably allowed it to move in if I had to guess but I’m no pro

Definitely possible but also was supposed to start mixing around this time down there

[mgerb]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Snow/sleet line is further north than this indicates. KDOX shows it well. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

My WSW now says that between 2-8 more inches will fall.  That sounds about right. 

[RU848789]

58 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 10:30 am, snowing legitimately heavily (1/4 mile visibility) with a bit larger dendrites and we now have 5.2" otg (1.2" last hour) at 13F (10F dewpoint). Just went for a Jeb Walk and took a few pics - gorgeous out there.

 

As of 11 am, still snowing heavily and up to 6.0" of snow otg, for a rate of 1.6"/hr the last 30 minutes - wow!  13F and just pouring snow.  Sleet line looks to be in Wilmington - latest HRRR has us in snow until about 3 pm and if that verifies, we'd get another 6" or so before the sleet.  We'll see, but certainly seems like 9-10" is a lock before the change and then maybe 1-2" sleet (but likely mixed with some snow, so maybe higher ratios than 3:1 for pure sleet).

Also, I got my snow to liquid ratio for the snow that fell through about 9:00 am when we had about 3.6" of snow - it was 14:1. I thought it would be at least 15:1, so off on that guess a little bit, probably because the flakes the first few hours were not large dendrites, so even though they were smaller dendrites and very dry, they packed in more than expected. Did this by taking a 6" x 6" x 3.6" cube of snow and melting it and doing the volume ratio. 

[nesussxwx1]

26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s not really moving north on the Jersey side 

It is moving north. Should be at Trenton in the next hour or two.

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most of south jersey is 6+but I guess that's from 7am on?

Not sure on exact time.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Snow/sleet line is further north than this indicates. KDOX shows it well. 

Hearing its still mainly snow in those areas to about Vineyard.  

[snywx]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Looks amazing for Orange, Putnam, and Dutchess. Even has lingering wraparound into tomorrow.

Im starting to think my 14-18" prediction might be a bit low

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That includes snow since 7am.

Didn't CPK already have 2 inches by 7am? If so 11 inches total for CPK is pretty good.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Snow/sleet line is further north than this indicates. KDOX shows it well. 

Yeah its going to be moving quick from SW to NE.

[Dan76]

12 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ocean enhanced precip absolutely exploding south of long island 

[nesussxwx1]

8 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Quickly?? It’s barely into southern jersey. Wildwood is still snowing heavy! 

I am in South Jersey, it is not 100% snow in Wildwood. The entirety of Cape May County has been in a mix for the past ~1.5 hours. ACY might still be snow though.

 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 11 am, still snowing heavily and up to 6.0" of snow otg, for a rate of 1.6"/hr the last 30 minutes - wow!  13F and just pouring snow.  Sleet line looks to be in Wilmington - latest HRRR has us in snow until about 3 pm and if that verifies, we'd get another 6" or so before the sleet.  We'll see, but certainly seems like 9-10" is a lock before the change and then maybe 1-2" sleet (but likely mixed with some snow, so maybe higher ratios than 3:1 for pure sleet).  

thanks for the report. roads were empty this morning. i haven't been back out

[jm1220]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah its going to be moving quick from SW to NE.

It hits a snag here or there but yes. It’ll be on our door by 3pm, then question is will it come through or hit more snags. 

[nianticct]

Still snow in Philadelphia 

[steve392]

Easily 6" here in little ferry and surrounding towns.  Haven't had such a powdery snow in forever.  Sounds weird driving over it. 

 

Roads are so so depending on town/roadway.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It hits a snag here or there but yes. It’ll be on our door by 3pm, then question is will it come through or hit more snags. 

Also do we get 3 hours of 2 inches and hour beforehand.

[nycsnow]

New hrr initialized pretty close to radar and has the mix line basically not cross lint island til after 00z bringing another 8-10 inches from central New Jersey through nyc Long Island 

[nycsnow]

Looks like south shore of Long Island is getting into some of that ocean enhanced snow as well

[Prue11]

Has timing changed on when sleet like creeps into LI? Hoping we can push it off until atleast 4 

[Rmine1]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Looks like south shore of Long Island is getting into some of that ocean enhanced snow as well

I’m in Brightwaters and visibility has to be well under a 1/4 of a mile right now. 
15 degrees, quickly approaching 6” OTG

[Snowlover11]

7”

I dont see how we cant crush to 12-18”

[nycsnow]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

I’m in Brightwaters and visibility has to be well under a 1/4 of a mile right now. 
15 degrees, quickly approaching 6” OTG

Ya I’m in Massapequa it’s puking snow 

[nycsnow]

Staten Island around 8 inches…. Should be double digits easy for nyc metro

[Rjay]

22 minutes ago, snywx said:

Im starting to think my 14-18" prediction might be a bit low

Prob more like 18-22"

[danstorm]

I’m at 7” - thinking my high end will be reached and maybe busted

Nearly placed that Kalshi bet on CPK but had a bad feeling and didn’t want to be rooting against snow

[North and West]

See this is another factor. I admit I am overly focused on the warm tongue, however if the rates overperform it will compensate.

.

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

7”

I dont see how we cant crush to 12-18”

The way things are going now, I see 12+ as a lock for you guys in Rockland