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Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26


TriPol
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2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Some of the hi res stuff has the sleet line really struggling to get through LI lately. Hopefully we can pull an RRFS out of a hat. I do think the thump with this one will be impressive regardless.

rrfs_a-snowfall_acc-imp-us_ne-2026012509-18.thumb.png.fa335af1770f88d95d2369279b35d870.png

I’ve been watching it since last night. A lot of them basically make Long Island the battle ground and the mix line goes north south it’s a sight hopefully it keeps showing up 

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35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

HRRR also ramping up the pre sleet amounts. 

It's going to be a fun few hours before the sleet gets here. Could be 2+/hr. Let's hope anyway. I just don't buy that south of White Plains it won't be all sleet for a while. Hopefully I'm wrong. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

It's going to be a fun few hours before the sleet gets here. Could be 2+/hr. Let's hope anyway. I just don't buy that south of White Plains it won't be all sleet for a while. Hopefully I'm wrong. 

Positive trends down south. Sleet line keeps getting pushed down/stalling hell of a battle with this cold airmass

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7 hours ago, eduggs said:

This is questionable. See DCA as an example below. At 18z Sun the 18z UKMET shows 7.7" snow accumulation. The ptype is sleet and the sleet line has cleanly crossed the area. By 21z the sleet line has crossed into PA indicating the line was advancing steadily northward. Yet at 27hr the UK snow total on Pivotal increases to 8.9" for DCA and then 10.3", and 10.4" at 30hr and 33hr. Based on this continued snow accumulation when the dominant ptype is clearly not snow, particularly combined with the mismatch between the UKMET snowfall output compared to other models, the claim above seems dubious. Something is not right with the way Pivotal depicts snowfall accumulation for the UKMET.

543590727_2026-01-24at22-42-17ModelsUKMETPivotalWeather.thumb.jpg.9503f5d4969b4f4514809362e7041cb4.jpg

414038717_2026-01-24at22-43-22ModelsUKMETPivotalWeather.thumb.jpg.bfe11d9d8079951bb8ca7e01312f1dd3.jpg

438642255_27hrptype2026-01-24at22-59-54ModelsUKMETPivotalWeather.thumb.jpg.de276d78d78b60548685f992e327cb03.jpg

 

It's what the site claims. You raise a fair point. It's plausible that the while the sounding says sleet at a specific point in time, there are embedded periods of heavier precipitation that flip back to snow during parts of the period. Unfortunately, the exact algorithm used isn't published.

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29 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Ok boyz and grrrrrllls - as of 6:30 am we have 3/4" of the most exquisite pixie dust snow imaginable otg at 11 frikkin' degrees F!  Let's get a foot or more!  Woke up for a minute at about 4:50 am and snow had just started then.  

I'm just down the road from Metuchen...I agree with all that.  I measured about 1" of snow on my car at 6:35.  I went to Shop Rite and by the time I got back my footprints were almost buried.  Probably at 1.5-1.75" right now.

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