Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, EastonSN+ said: GDPS and I am off. Yea definitely lack of model agreement since GFS has Philly and NYC getting almost the same amount and GDPS has NYC getting 7 inches more. It's nowcasting at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My temp is running a degree cooler then progged rn,not much cloud cover so the temps are still dropping. 12/-9f currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 mt holly not as bullish as they were ; dropped amounts 2-4 and believe south of 95 switches to rain; sleet up to i 80, then they admit warm layer isn't that deep and could be overcome by intense snows....something we have tended to discount..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Rap 12-16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Steve D likes 8-16 inches for NYC and LI , 12-18 for north of NYC and 6-12 inches south of NYC He thinks the sleet line on the Nam is wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Canadian looks great! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, MJO812 said: Steve D likes 8-16 inches for NYC and LI and 12-18 for north of NYC and 6-12 inches south of NYC He thinks the sleet line on the Nam is wrong. Ive been rooting for the 557ww model. Last 3 days it has kept most of nyc snow along with the navgem models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Canadian looks great! Incredible trends tonight, I’m really starting to get curious of the sleet line hitting the Bronx and dropping south rrfs hrrr and rap have been doing it continuously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, nycsnow said: Incredible trends tonight, I’m really starting to get curious of the sleet line hitting the Bronx and dropping south rrfs hrrr and rap have been doing it continuously Ill be here waiting on it.. trust me it might be epic around these parts if it never mixes. At the rates/ratios. It might be crazy for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 canadian seems to stay all snow for the city, correct me if Im wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. That's correct. From Pivotal Weather: ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models. https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall This is questionable. See DCA as an example below. At 18z Sun the 18z UKMET shows 7.7" snow accumulation. The ptype is sleet and the sleet line has cleanly crossed the area. By 21z the sleet line has crossed into PA indicating the line was advancing steadily northward. Yet at 27hr the UK snow total on Pivotal increases to 8.9" for DCA and then 10.3", and 10.4" at 30hr and 33hr. Based on this continued snow accumulation when the dominant ptype is clearly not snow, particularly combined with the mismatch between the UKMET snowfall output compared to other models, the claim above seems dubious. Something is not right with the way Pivotal depicts snowfall accumulation for the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Steve D likes 8-16 inches for NYC and LI , 12-18 for north of NYC and 6-12 inches south of NYC He thinks the sleet line on the Nam is wrong. He never adjusts his forecasts though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: mt holly not as bullish as they were ; dropped amounts 2-4 and believe south of 95 switches to rain; sleet up to i 80, then they admit warm layer isn't that deep and could be overcome by intense snows....something we have tended to discount..... Here are the associated graphics: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, eduggs said: This is questionable. See DCA as an example below. At 18z Sun the 18z UKMET shows 7.7" snow accumulation. The ptype is sleet and the sleet line has cleanly crossed the area. By 21z the sleet line has crossed into PA indicating the line was advancing steadily northward. Yet at 27hr the UK snow total on Pivotal increases to 8.9" for DCA and then 10.3", and 10.4" at 30hr and 33hr. Based on this continued snow accumulation when the dominant ptype is clearly not snow, particularly combined with the mismatch between the UKMET snowfall output compared to other models, the claim above seems dubious. Something is not right with the way Pivotal depicts snowfall accumulation for the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: He never adjusts his forecasts though He sticks with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Off to get some sleep. Interesting day of weather coming up for tomorrow. Hourly obs, radar and mPING on the agenda. Good luck to all. Hope everyone gets what they want and what they are expecting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, MANDA said: Off to get some sleep. Interesting day of weather coming up for tomorrow. Hourly obs, radar and mPING on the agenda. Good luck to all. Hope everyone gets what the want and what they expecting. I will be working tomorrow. Should be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 still watching that trend on the hourly models and hrr once again brings the mix line up and then starts to drop it south of li…. Really hope this isn’t fake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 13/-4. Ready to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: He never adjusts his forecasts though I think 6 to 10 is a good forecast for our area. Maybe 7 inches of snow and then 1 to 2 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Its go time, Snowing in DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Its go time, Snowing in DC. our start Time could be earlier than advertised ,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Find someone to love and hold on to it like the UKMET and that weird snow hole over NYC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, hooralph said: Find someone to love and hold on to it like the UKMET and that weird snow hole over NYC. It’s gotten snowier each run. Looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 14 minutes ago, nycsnow said: still watching that trend on the hourly models and hrr once again brings the mix line up and then starts to drop it south of li…. Really hope this isn’t fake It's advancing a little further every run. At 21z now it's sleeting in Staten Island and barrier islands, from the 0z run at the same time the sleet was around Perth Amboy. It still dumps a lot beforehand but it's noticeable by 10 miles or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My Final snowmap call 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Totals might be great, but can't make out the geography. You need a better map of the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Like I pointed out the other day. Whenever the models show a long duration event, it rarely happens. I'm still excited for this event. Hopefully it over performs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Upton is back online 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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