MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Jim Cantore in NYC 5 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 when will Mt Holly cave if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbo073 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 22 minutes ago, David-LI said: Wrap around snow on the GFS, still snowing at 1 pm on Monday. Wrap around always overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: i find lee goldberg and the guy on news 12 pretty good. no one is perfect. but news 12 was so good during ida i gained a lot of respect for them. is 1010 WINS AM News still saying the storm will miss to the south like they were earlier ? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NYCPS just got the go-ahead to work remote on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Nibor said: Notice the trend of the weaker primary…that may end up making the difference for a lot of people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea i don't think anyone on long island should be expecting 14" of snow...8-12" total snow and sleet is a good forecast, and its in our WSW. This will be a MECS with major impacts, largely because it will be so cold. But, this is not a record setting storm by any means. Just a major, high impact storm to enjoy on a Sunday. That is what this has always been. Setting your expectations higher is not realistic. Nationwide absolutely it’ll be a crippling storm. Agree-locally it’s something we’ve been getting every 1-2 years until this sucky stretch after Jan 2022 and I’d consider it disruptive but not crippling. Dec 2020-esque in my opinion which IMBY was 8”. At the very high end maybe we approach what we saw on 2/1/21 but that’s if everything works out perfectly. The first juiced clipper in Dec had 8” here but this one will have more impact since there will be more water in the snow/sleet to get to the 8”. I’m hopeful on the north shore we make it to 10” combined snow/sleet. If this major coastal storm happens next weekend that could locally be major or better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC. I wouldn’t worry about random dry holes that show up like these. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC. Lol like 3 straight runs but the ukie does these weird things sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC. LOL - it's treating western Long Island as if it is an active volcanic mountain range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said: LOL - it's treating western Long Island as if it is an active volcanic mountain range. that is weird and it extends it west into SI and eastern Middlesex County/Union NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: when will Mt Holly cave if at all Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches. Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: is 1010 WINS AM News still saying the storm will miss to the south like they were earlier ? Their Accuweather forecast has 4"-8" for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: is 1010 WINS AM News still saying the storm will miss to the south like they were earlier ? what? i've not heard that one.....wnyc reported 12-20 for some spots and maybe less than a foot for the city and nearby, with changes possible. pretty fair forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I don't have and don't want an X account - can't you start a thread here ? Snow contest thread. good luck to everybody 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, CentralNJSnowman said: Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches. Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile their justification in march 2017 was that if they dropped amounts people would not respect the sleet and go out and get hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Their Accuweather forecast has 4"-8" for NYC. probably taking into account the city environment itself and the traditionally low snow measurements in CP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: when will Mt Holly cave if at all They'll probably go 8-12 when warnings come out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches. Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentileDon't trust kuchera, ratios are higher in this setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: what? i've not heard that one.....wnyc reported 12-20 for some spots and maybe less than a foot for the city and nearby, with changes possible. pretty fair forecast. That was an old forecast, I believe from Wednesday. Since yesterday, they've been at 4"-8". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: their justification in march 2017 was that if they dropped amounts people would not respect the sleet and go out and get hurt. Yeah, I assume that this is why they often overdo snow amounts and are slow to reduce amounts And I get that they have a tough job to do with a lot of people tending to ignore taking precautions That said, I think if you consistently overdo things, everyone learns to ignore you. You kind of need to give people credit for being able to understand some nuance...even if a lot of people may or may not be capable of it. Ultimately your job is to tell the truth...not try to trick people into complying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I wouldn’t worry about random dry holes that show up like these. hasnt this shown up on a few other models too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, Nibor said: cmc all snow for the city? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Nationwide absolutely it’ll be a crippling storm. Agree-locally it’s something we’ve been getting every 1-2 years until this sucky stretch after Jan 2022 and I’d consider it disruptive but not crippling. Dec 2020-esque in my opinion which IMBY was 8”. At the very high end maybe we approach what we saw on 2/1/21 but that’s if everything works out perfectly. The first juiced clipper in Dec had 8” here but this one will have more impact since there will be more water in the snow/sleet to get to the 8”. I’m hopeful on the north shore we make it to 10” combined snow/sleet. If this major coastal storm happens next weekend that could locally be major or better. Yep. This storm should get us near average on the year, to somewhere between 25-30", as I am at 18" now. If we cash in later in the week and early next month, we will be on our way to our first above average season in years, 40" might be doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: probably taking into account the city environment itself and the traditionally low snow measurements in CP. not a factor for this one. no uhi when the temps are in the teens lol. limiting factor will be the sleet, which affects everyone south of the city as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: They'll probably go 8-12 when warnings come out i mean 12-18 was a ridiculous starting point...they could have gone 8-16 or 8-14...all their pinpoints are 14 right now..what model even shows that, even the gfs 10-1 isnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: 7 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said: Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches. Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile Don't trust kuchera, ratios are higher in this setup Kuchera is usually inflated. Ratios are determined by snow growth when temps are below freezing. It could be zero, 20 or 30 and ratios could be the same if snow growth is good or putrid. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: cmc all snow for the city? No there's definitely sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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