SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Tue night ice box 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Gfs is not backing down. It's most likely wrong but it hasn't really budged much at all. Give it that GFS is a top tier model. Care to elaborate why you think it is wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This is where we say the GFS is a good model and that it nailed such and such event You mean when the GFS was the only model showing any snow for last weekend, the EURO was way offshore, and we all got snow? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Someone please post the old "Mother Of God" picture please... Pretty please? From the old days... Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, eduggs said: I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us. I'm 50 miles north of NYC in orange county NY. It's been a good season so far with 26.3 inches here, but I wouldn't call it great. It this weekend plays out well it will lean in that direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit. Boxing day was not 100% snow. I even mixed briefly in western nassau where i was living at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Wed morning 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 With most of the 18z guidance now in, I have no changes from my thinking following the 12z model cycle. In general, the New York City area remains in line for its biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. Moreover, the storm will likely reach at least Category 3 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). Further, this could become the first storm since the January 22-24, 2016 blizzard to bring 6" or more snow to all of the following cities: Boston, Baltimore, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. it appears that a good initial estimate for storm total snow and sleet in New York City and nearby areas will fall in the 6"-12" range. Areas to the south and east of New York City and its nearby suburbs could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. A reasonable floor for New York City is 5". A reasonable ceiling is 14". There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill will improve markedly overnight and tomorrow. At that time, there should be convergence toward a consensus among the models. Estimates could be revised based on the subsequent guidance, as needed. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The most gorgeous pink skies out rn..nature's heads up!!. It's def coming guys. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: . This would be rare. No one on the forum gets screwed. That's why it won't happen as depicted here. Would love it if it did though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That was a pretty sweet 18z GFS. Better timed phasing and that's why you want to see the coastal take off sooner and not later. It shows what's possible if that can happen. That's all that run really said to me. But at least there's still hints of that happening on any guidance too though. Let's see what the euro's got at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It transfers a lot faster. This is the best case scenario It'd be 14-20" pretty much area wide that would match my snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 My wife in EM says that Mamdani will have NYCPS go remote Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS for the win! Lets bring this home baby! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS develops the coastal further offshore which helps keep everyone snow It transfers it earlier/further south which keeps the mid level warm air away. And puts us in a pivot zone where we don’t dry slot and the coastal snow takes over. That’s another consequence of a primary driving into Buffalo-the 700mb layer dries out and we get the dry slot. GFS has been consistent I’ll give it that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS is the absolute best case scenario for the NYC subforum lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, David-LI said: GFS is a top tier model. Care to elaborate why you think it is wrong? I mean it's like 4th in verification score. An no other model shows anything remotely close to this. When the GFS is on its own it's probably best to just ignore it. I pray it's right but I have my doubts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 well even as we laugh at the GFS it does matchup with what Mt Holly is forecasting in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 48 minutes ago, psv88 said: People always bash the NWS but in my view they often do a stellar job, at least for out here. Many times they absolutely nail a forecast which is hard to do. Yes, some forecasts are blown, or maybe only the low end of a warning verifies, but overall i think Upton does a terrific job. they can have a hard time getting wind speeds and duration right; this is a problem i have dealt with for 50 years.the 15-20 can be closer to 25 or more; the 15-20 can be 10-15. you lose a day thinking it will blow, get out another day and the wind never craps out. as you know, this matters a lot at sea. nvm the direction can be off too; north vs northwest matters; south vs southwest matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Someone please post the old "Mother Of God" picture please... Pretty please? From the old days... LolThere’s been many….which one specifically . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs is a weenies delight maybe weathergeeks map aint too bad after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Tue night ice box I always found it interesting how places liked KY and Virginia are going to be colder than NYC area. Do a this have something to do with nyc area being closer to the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: they can have a hard time getting wind speeds and duration right; this is a problem i have dealt with for 50 years.the 15-20 can be closer to 25 or more; the 15-20 can be 10-15. you lose a day thinking it will blow, get out another day and the wind never craps out. as you know, this matters a lot at sea. nvm the direction can be off too; north vs northwest matters; south vs southwest matters. True, marine forecasts are tricky. I rely on the PredictWind app and largely follow HRRR for same day marine winds. I dont think Upton spends alot of time and energy fine tuning the wind forecast for the western LI Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, eduggs said: I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us. I have a home in VT and spend a good part of the year there and travel through New England. Aside from the northern greens, lake belts and parts of the Adirondacks it hasn’t been a great season. Maybe average, below in some areas. Not great in Mass, NH or ME. Even the central greens, Killington etc not great. Cold yes, storm systems and above average snow, not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit. The concern was whether the storm would miss to the East, not p-types. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 634 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS WITH THE STORM PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH PHASING DETAILS OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AS THEY COMBINE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY...WITH A FULL SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES RANGING FROM LITTLE OR NO PRECIP TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. THE 12Z GFS...WHILE LOOKING MOST OMINOUS...WAS NOT FULLY ACCEPTED MAINLY DUE TO INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHOSE INTERACTION WILL IN TURN GREATLY INFLUENCE THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM. THE 12Z ECMWF INITIALIZED THESE FEATURES A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL NOT PERFECTLY...AND ITS SFC LOW TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE RIDING A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...STILL LOOKS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST GIVEN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING LOCATED TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AND COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS EITHER STRAIGHT CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR A BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LOW TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS TO SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...LESSER AMOUNTS WESTWARD TO SW CT AND NYC METRO...AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WITH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS STILL NONZERO BUT IS LOW...ONLY 30-40 PERCENT FOR EASTERNMOST CT/LONG ISLAND...AND 10-20 PERCENT FARTHER WEST. FORECAST DETAILS MAY STILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN THE INTERACTION OF THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO FORM THIS SYSTEM INCREASES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: The most gorgeous pink skies out rn..nature's heads up!!. It's def coming guys. 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models. I'd rather have GFS by my side than Euro since their upgrade a few years back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, JonClaw said: My wife in EM says that Mamdani will have NYCPS go remote Monday. i've been retired awhile' do many schools do this now? makes some sense.you don't blow a day that has to be made up; its not perfect; sometimes schools close for mass power outages like sandy. but 94 was a nightmare of school closings that all had to made up; imagine if we'd had remote learning back then....we still did not have ac in the schools, and may 94 was brutally hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: This would be rare. No one on the forum gets screwed. That's why it won't happen as depicted here. Would love it if it did though. It used to happen in the 90s but I can't remember many times it's happened since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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