WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Uniblab said: Nooo not Staten island lol toms river i meant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 31 minutes ago, mob1 said: It's just a blend of all models I think there’s an in house model group the NWS uses for this but someone with more information can add further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Good signal from the 6z Euro for at least a 6-8” floor around NYC and LI before any sleet potential later Sunday using conservative 10-1 ratios which could be on the low side. Those amounts look pretty reasonable and I would agree with a 6-8" floor for the NYC Metro. In my mind that would include the Rt. 78 and 80 corridor through NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18 minutes ago, MANDA said: One of the top 10 posts in this thread. 100%. Where the secondary develops, how it tracks and how fast it can potentially halt the mid level warming will be important to duration of event and how much snow might fall after the mix perhaps goes back to snow. Ideally this low will develop off the VA/DE coast and move towards Nantucket and Block Island gradually deepening as it goes. This might be asking a lot though. We'll see. Either way there will be a good dump of snow and sleet to ice it up. The snow pack will not be going anywhere anytime soon. At this point, pending future model runs I'm expecting sleet to get mixed in as far north as my area. Just don't like it when the 700/850 are so far NW, at least initially. Yep, seen it before too where if 750-800mb are wrecked by the initial primary lows hanging on too long it can take a while to flip back to snow. But the coastal storm evolution is the complex part of this that we have to wait and see on. It’s looking good for at least 4-6 hours or so of heavy snow before any warm mid level air arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Those amounts look pretty reasonable and I would agree with a 6-8" floor for the NYC Metro. In my mind that would include the Rt. 78 and 80 corridor through NJ. yup, Im at MMU and I'm thinking 6-10 is a good call right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: why and where ? and what evidence do you have to back up that statement other than warm model runs 3 days in advance of the storm ? Climo. How many storms do we get that are 100% snow. This is a SWFE which often flips to non snow at the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 are we about to get NAM'd? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 38 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Stole this from NE @WeatherWillynot sure how accurate this model is NBM Dont understand why the nbm is used. Seems very out of wack 3-4 days in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are: 2/18/21 12/25/02 12/15/13 2/11/86 12/17/20 3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are: 2/18/21 12/25/02 12/15/13 2/11/86 12/17/20 3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: are we about to get NAM'd? It wouldn’t be a legit winter storm if we didn’t have a NAMing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are: 2/18/21 12/25/02 12/15/13 2/11/86 12/17/20 3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL All lousy events out here so I hopeNot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are: 2/18/21 12/25/02 12/15/13 2/11/86 12/17/20 3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL 12/17/20 might be a pretty good one at the end. Hopefully the snow comes in better than that one did-I ended up with 8” but was hoping for 12+ but the snow shield broke up so the warm mid level air advanced faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM Looks liek 6-10 @ HR 84 but next frame would introduce mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It looks like that model is counting mixed precip as snow as the 540 line is north of us during Sunday afternoon like the regular Euro. 540 line is too rough to use as a definitive ptype demarc especially when it is still close. 546, which is depicted to our south could still be snow. The devil is in the details. The 850s do look very warm at 96 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The NAM has a big time warm nose at 750 mb at 84 hours at 12z just to the south and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump! 6-10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Man Nam is torchy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NAM looks like every SWFE storm from the past 5 years, thump to sleet. Crazy how this evolution changed from a few days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, qg_omega said: NAM looks like every SWFE storm from the past 5 years, thump to sleet. Crazy how this evolution changed from a few days ago From suppression to mixing in 24 hrs...lol At least we are getting the storm-suppression with 10 degree cold would have sucked royally 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Man Nam is torchy. Yep and I would not ignore it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Snow/ sleet through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 No model run should be ignored. Each one is correct to even a tiny extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6-10 That 10 for immediate NYC region could be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The wildcard is the coastal-if that forms and starts to move NE the colder mid levels may stay for areas especially north of the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 How long until we get storm cancel from people? 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 RGEM next up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now