Mo Snow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 In NYC it's been 5 years since 12" and 4 years since 7-8" Is that right or am I missing a storm? Been waiting a while for the next 12"+ storm Have to be in NYC this Saturday for a high school reunion, then drive back to Philly early Sunday. Wish me luck! Hope the storm starts Sunday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Is it tradition to discuss March 2001 every time there's a winter storm in our backyard? It's almost 25 years. Models have improved a lot since then. Can we let it die? 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The March 2001 nightmare. Some members probably have no recollection. Others might not have been born yet. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 242 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001 WL GO AHD AND ISSUE WSW FOR ENTIRE FA FOR 3D PD. AVN/ECMWF CONSISTANT AND SHOWG MAJOR LO PRES EFFECTG FA SUN AFTN THRU AT LEAST TUE MRNG. THINKG IN XS OF A FT OF SNW...ALNG WITH 25 TO 30 MPH WNDS...IE NR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...SUN NGT THRU TUE MRNG. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRNGST STM SINCE THE JAN 96 BLIZZARD. THE ETA AND NGM HAVE COME OVR TO THE AVN/ECMWF SOLN AS WELL AS THE NOGAPS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SHOWG A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. BUT IF THE SYSTEM GOES VERTICAL...AS IT SEEMS IT WL NOW...IT WL STALL BTWN DELMARVA AND CAPE COD...AND CUD HAMMER US THRU TUE MRNG. AM CONFIDENT ENUF THAT WE WILL GET SOMETHING THUS WL GO AHD AND PULL THE TRIGGR ON THE WSW. ON THE MARINE...THINKG WE CUD GET CSTL FLOODG PROBLMS AT TIMES OF HI TIDE...BEGNG SUN NGT. THATS STILL 4TH PD...AND WL NOT ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH ATTM. BUT ONE WL PROBLY BE ISSUED THIS AFTNS PCKG. WRKZFP IN AWIPS BY 3.5 AM. ZNS WIBIS BTW 4 AND 4.5 AM. ON THE MARINE...WL CONTINUE MENTION OF GLS SUN NGT ON. PROBLY BE UP TO SCA SUN AFTN. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 230 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001 DISC: SNOW DEVLPNG DURING SUN AFTN AND WL GET HVY FROM SUN NIGHT THRU MON AND BEYOND. WL ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL HOLD OFF AN GO WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW. EVE/MID CREW WILL HAVE TO UP TO A WARNING. ONLY PROBLEM WITH FCST IS...WL OUR ERN L.I. ZONES MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES. FOR NOW DID MENTION THE THE MIX COMING IN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 220 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001 CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE SNW...WET SNW...PERHAPS MIXG WITH A BIT OF SLEET DURG THE DAY MON. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. THINKG IT WL BE A WET SNW...PEHAPS A 5 TO 1 RATIO CSTS AND 1 TO 8 INLND. EVEN SO WITH 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQ EQV...TRANSLATES TO 10 TO 18 IN. PLACES INLND WL SEE 2 PLUS FT OF SNW. THINKG THAT ANY WARMG WL BE OFFSET BY EVAP COOLG. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 940 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001 CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE WET SNW...BCMG SLEET MON NGT IN STG ERLY WND. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD INCLUDING TOTAL SNWFALL SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. BIG QUESTION REMAINS ON JUST HOW MILD COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BECOME AND THUS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE HELD DOWN. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 300 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MDL RUN BTN ETA AND AVN...BOTH ALF AND AT SFC. SFC LO CNTR NR THE VA CST TO MOV SLOLY NE TDY AND TNGT...GETTING ABREAST OF THE FCST AREA AFT MIDN...THEN RETROGRADING AND ESSENTIALLY DOING A LOOP TO THE SW TUE BFR HEADING OUT TO SEA TUE NGT AND WED. PCPN HAS BEEN SLO TO GET GOING AS THE LO BCMS MORE ORGANIZED. SOME WRMR AIR WORKING IN ALF HAS RESULTED IN SLEET AND FRZG RAIN MXG IN WITH THE LGT SNW THUS FAR...SPCLY NR THE CST. HWVR AS THE LO CNTR MOVS FTHR OFF THE CST THIS MRNG THEN TURNS NE THIS AFTN...DRAWING COLDER AIR BCK IN...THE MXD PCPN WL CHG TO SNW THRUOUT THE RGN. AT THIS POINT WL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FCST OF 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNW NR THE CST AND 1 TO 2 FT INLD. HWVR WITH THE LO CNTR DVLPG A BIT TOO FAR N...AND EVENTUALLY RMNG NR OUR AREA FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENT...AM THINKING THAT IF A CHG NEEDS TO BE MADE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES IT WOULD BE TO REDUCE THE TOTALS A BIT...SPCLY NR THE CST...UNLESS WE PICK UP A LOT OF SNW ON THE BCKSIDE. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LENGTH OF TIME IT WL SNW...WL NOT TAMPER WITH THE AMTS NOW. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1005 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001 WILL UPDATE ZONES ASAP. LARGE WARM LAYER AS SEEN ON MORNING SOUNDING. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...SO AM LOOKING AT RAIN FOR A PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SLEET EVEN BEING REPORTED WELL INLAND. WILL LOWER OR DROP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO HAVE A CONCERN ON NEW FORECAST PATH OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MORE ON THAT LATER. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT QPFS REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WRAP AROUND AND IN BANDS AS LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 235 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001 WESTERN SECTIONS (INCLUDING NYC) STARTING TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HEAVIEST PRECIP NOW OVER EASTERN ZONES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH POSITIONING OF LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SOME DIFFERENCES TUESDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ETA BRINGS THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE SFC LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE TO LI...WHICH RESULTS IN TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS FOR ANY HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. I LIKE THE AVN LOOK BETTER AS WRAP AROUND AND PLENTY OF UVM OCCURS FROM NE TO SW FROM ROUGHLY BOS VCNTY INTO SOUTHERN CT. THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN CATEGORICAL SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LIGHTENS UP AS UPPER SUPPORT AND SFC LOW PULLS FINALLY TO THE EAST. IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS TOO MUCH WARM AIR AROUND H8 TO OVERCOME...EVEN WITH HEAVY PRECIP APPROACHING. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL NOT OVERCOME THIS WARM LAYER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. FURTHER WEST...ANY MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW QUICKLY BEFORE 00Z. EAST ZONES WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 735 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001 SHORT TERM DISC: AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND. THE LTST LOOP OF RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECIP FIELD ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/S SOUTHERN FORK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW WITH BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO WRAP-AROUND THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. SNOW CONTS TO FALL AT THE RATE OF ARND 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE LTST OKX SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 200 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001 SHORT RANGE DISC: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONT TO WRAP-ARND A 981 MB LOW NEAR BOUY 44008 AT 05Z. AT 06Z...9.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN MEASURED AT OKX. IN GENERAL... SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU AT LEAST 09Z AS A MID AND UPPER LVL DRY SLOT CONTS TO WRAP WESTWARD ACRS CT. MEDIUM RANGE DISC: AS STATED IN NCEP/S MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC...THE ETA AND NGM MDLS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE AVN SOLN...FOR LOOPING THE LOW BACK TWD THE SOUTHWEST. THE ETA AND NGM TRACK THE LOW BACK TWD 71W LONGITUDE WHILE THE AVN TRACKS THE LOW ALONG 69W LONGITUDE. IN EITHER CASE...STG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONT AS NW WINDS BACK TWD THE NORTH. AS FAR AS PRECIP AND OUR QPF...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS THE STG UPPER LVL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURS FM 12Z TO 21Z...WHEN WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION. I BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WILL OCCUR ACRS CT AND LONG ISLAND...CLOSER TO THE LOW/S PATH...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL. FURTHER WEST...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 330 AM EST WED MAR 7 2001 DISC: AS OF EARLY ON THE SHIFT THERE STILL WERE SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE FA. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP STACKED LOW PRESS WHICH WAS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SW. THE SFC AND H5 LOWS WERE IN THE SAME POSITION AND LOOKING AT THE IR LOOP STREAMS OF PCPN WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THEY SHD END BEFORE FCST IS PUBLISHED AND WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE ZONES. I remember it well. 2 days off school for an inch of slop. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: Is it tradition to discuss March 2001 every time there's a winter storm in our backyard? It's almost 25 years. Models have improved a lot since then. Can we let it die? how many years has it been since rome was sacked? some things cannot be let go..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Mo Snow said: In NYC it's been 5 years since 12" and 4 years since 7-8" Is that right or am I missing a storm? Been waiting a while for the next 12"+ storm Have to be in NYC this Saturday for a high school reunion, then drive back to Philly early Sunday. Wish me luck! Hope the storm starts Sunday afternoon. The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 depends on what you mean by nyc are you only counting central park or the bronx for snow totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2001 probably doesn't happen but if this does totally whiff way way more likely it whiffs miss to the south then too warm/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: how many years has it been since rome was sacked? some things cannot be let go..... Right but how many times since then have we had Weenie suicides? Dozens. We're tracking a storm and then it dies. We never talk about those. But March 2001... it's a right of passage if you're going to be a weather weenie, you have to have a shot of scotch in your hand, be half drunk, and talk about it until the cows come home. We've had worse disappointments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 19Z GFS to 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Snow starts around 4-5 AM Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: GFS rolling.... please hold serve It's always last to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GFS looks like it's holding with the more south solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18z GFS definitely not going to be an ICON redux, much less interaction between the Canadian part of the trough and the southern part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: This model did really well inside 5 days with the last system and its performance is beating the regular op models The past several years, when it's a solution we do not want, the EURO does well 5 days out....when it's a great snowy solution, it almost always fails/under delivers. It's gotten to the point I do not know what to make of it anymore. It's almost like we are in a simulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Secondary low is much stronger here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: Right but how many times since then have we had Weenie suicides? Dozens. We're tracking a storm and then it dies. We never talk about those. But March 2001... it's a right of passage if you're going to be a weather weenie, you have to have a shot of scotch in your hand, be half drunk, and talk about it until the cows come home. We've had worse disappointments. pretty good response, i gotta say. also, if you're gonna have a bust, march is a likely time to see one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 To sum up today’s runs it looks as if the storm continues to tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Yea GFS looks nothing like the icon. Lot less phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Classic GFS progression for big snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: It doesn't look all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 if nothing else GFS and ICON show the very wide envelope of solutions we have. No longer the consensus we had at 00z last night. Fun times tracking ahead! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18Z so far concentrates on the weak secondary but looks like a strung out mess - no mixing concerns here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, BoulderWX said: if nothing else GFS and ICON show the very wide envelope of solutions we have. No longer the consensus we had at 00z last night. Fun times tracking ahead! Gfs will fold once again. It always does this with snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TriPol said: It doesn't look all that impressive. Most of us are <.5" liquid which could still be 6 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The GFS is all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Good ol' goofus. Hey atleast no mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now