Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 NBM jumped significantly. Near record snowfall south of DC to RIC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Disc said: 13z NBM Probabilities of 48hr snowfall exceeding 12" Washington: 66% Baltimore: 59% Hagerstown: 50% Fredericksburg: 70% Winchester 58% Charlottesville: 75% Leesburg: 58% Richmond: 75% Roanoke: 70% Lynchburg: 75% Norfolk: 52% You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 NAM just gave me 3 inches on Friday in Virginia....shew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home I'm used to seeing those percentages across SE WV for upslope snow totals of like 6", not areawide exceeding 12" LOL. Hard to believe, but the writing on the wall is becoming more clear that this could be a storm to remember. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just me, or is 12z ICON slow today? Sitting at 48 still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true. It’s coming north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home It's only slightly lower so this isn't me being negative, but is there any reason we should/shouldn't be using the NBM v5 that I believe goes live this spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, yoda said: Just me, or is 12z ICON slow today? Yeah maybe like 20 minutes slow. 00z icon was through the event at like 10:20pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 i am really sleep guys. I was up for the Euro and then did PBP for 6z gfs 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Surprised models still keep my yard safe from mixing but I'm expecting some sleet for a time. Hopefully no zr. Power can go out for weeks (not days) down this way lol. If I mix and the DMV doesn't get widespread double digits ill have to put a check mark in the fail column lol. Getting calls for snow removal help already. Might be a very profitable storm. Deep powder, diesel fuel, and heavy equipment sounds like a good f'n time hahahah 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 minutes ago, Shad said: NAM just gave me 3 inches on Friday in Virginia....shew Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention? It was mentioned in the LWX discussion this morning... I think also Chuck has mentioned it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention? It came from a tired old model that loves to make shit up way out of range 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, yoda said: It was mentioned in the LWX discussion this morning... I think also Chuck has mentioned it EZF to RIC to SBY is going to get their snow climo in a week. Wow. What a way to break a snow drought. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Hmmmm... 12z ICON h5 at 84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true. Might have pushed the initial overrunning south a smidge but brings the coastal further north from phasing. Throws heavy precip into New England actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, yoda said: Hmmmm... 12z ICON h5 at 84 12z NAM at 84 for reference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Bob Chill said: It came from a tired old model that loves to make shit up way out of range Euro had something similar but further south Seems like a weak wave developing along the boundary from Thursdays front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I like the look of the ICON at h5 on that h84 frame above... let's see where it goes. Nice to have a less closed off s/w there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's only slightly lower so this isn't me being negative, but is there any reason we should/shouldn't be using the NBM v5 that I believe goes live this spring? Still in testing. It runs several hrs after the NBM 4.3, so that will bump up with the next run, don’t worry. It also is biased low on these kinds of setups. This is what the testing is for! We have lots of comparison analysis and notes for developers that will be sorted out after the winter season. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Massive differences between ICON (slower ejection and further south) and UKMET (northern stream interaction, faster ejection) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yeah the ICON is looking nice through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12z ICON surface and h5 at 108 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 ICON has that molly wop look. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Someone needs to change the date on the thread title. This is morphing into a delayed but not denied system. 25-26. Could even extend to 27th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 120 12z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 FOLKS 15 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Icon printing just a ton of freezing rain down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ICON has that molly wop look. Who's Molly and why do want to whop her? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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