January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

GFS going to betray us again?

lol...let's be patient and see first before we go there.  But the Baja low is slower so far

[stormtracker]

Looks like its moving still on the next panel

[andyhb]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not that anyone cares per se but we now have a DCA/BWI/PHL/NYC hit. Just need Boston to complete the megalopolis quinella

The PDII comparisons starting to flash into the picture.

[TSSN+]

I do see some more backside energy coming this run than last so maybe that will kick it out here soon. 

[Nomz]

Man what I say wrong lol. If Boston ends up with sig snow from this system we almost certainly got hammered. If we get hammered its more likely Boston does as well. Just the way this system is oriented.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS HR 57.  Looks about the same as 18Z.

[Ji]

i got the TWC music going and its totally relaxing me

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Nomz said:

Man what I say wrong lol. If Boston ends up with sig snow from this system we almost certainly got hammered. If we get hammered its more likely Boston does as well. Just the way this system is oriented.

I know what you meant--but your wording coulda been better. You said "or vice-versa" which isn't always true (i.e. the storms they get that we miss)

[TSSN+]

Ya there’s a lot more backside energy coming from the NW this run. That may assist it to push and phase.

[stormtracker]

Relax yall...seems a tad slower but it's moving

[LP08]

Aigfs a tick north again.

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya there’s a lot more backside energy coming from the NW this run. Thag may assist it to push and phase 

It's fine

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Man what I say wrong lol. If Boston ends up with sig snow from this system we almost certainly got hammered. If we get hammered it’s more likely Boston does as well. Just the way this system is oriented.

I think we’re good on this subject 

[baltosquid]

Bellyaching was def premature (so far), Baja has mostly caught up lol

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's fine

is GFS faster panels on snowvista too or just the euro?

[Nomz]

AIGFS 1.0 QPF in DC through Monday 06z with a couple drops to go

[NorthArlington101]

AIGFS is pretty hot. 1” QPF just north of DC. Don’t think any mixing issues.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z AI GFS did tick North compared to 18Z.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's fine

A bit stronger and west SW is fine as long as we have the increased NS energy to compensate. Which oddly has been happening for every run. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

is GFS faster panels on snowvista too or just the euro?

I think just the euro.  After bncho kept clipping me, I realized it wasn't much faster so I mostly abandoned the pbp since we all could get it at the same time for the most part.   Euro is lightning fast on SV tho

[stormtracker]

Actually think out front looks slightly better vs 18z attm..could change tho

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Actually think out front looks slightly better vs 18z attm..could change tho

Yeah, GFS phases the Baja low better

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Actually think out front looks slightly better vs 18z attm..could change tho

Yes that extra energy to the nw help speed things up after the intial slower start 

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z AI GFS did tick North compared to 18Z.

That's more than a tick in my book.  Also, looking at the precipitation pattern to our northeast, it looks like it's trying to turn the corner and go up the coast.

[Amped]

Gfs is an ass hair further west with the northern stream and higher with heights ahead, so probably coming north.

[stormtracker]

Alright..the march north beginning at 102...make or break time.   Seems later start than other models?

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z AI GFS did tick North compared to 18Z.

Substantially north. That is .3 total precip more for the northern crew

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Alright..the march north beginning at 102...make or break time.   Seems later start than other models?

Honestly Gfs still in catch up mode. 

[stormtracker]

guys

[jaydreb]

Snowing from New Mexico to Virginia at 102.