January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s over 

Ooh ok ty bro!

[mitchnick]

Trough on Eps is much better than 12z and better ridging ahead on the coast. Will be better than 22z. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, grhqofb5 said:

Is there any data available about potential wind speeds? 

You’re looking for the Blizzard warning.  I see what you did there.  Wish we still had the heavy snow warning.  

[bncho]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Trough on Eps is much better than 12z and better ridging ahead on the coast. Will be better than 22z. 

22z? Extended HH!

[mitchnick]

Eps. 12z bottom.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead. 

WSW goes 5 inches to infinity.  We need another tier to get excited about. 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead. 

Better for ratios 

[Eskimo Joe]

For those wondering, there isn't the wind component to verify blizzard warnings. Strong winds aloft come with their own risk, namely crystal destruction that could knock totals down. Just give me cold powder that stacks up.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

WSW goes 5 inches to infinity.  We need another tier to get excited about. 

Winter Storm Emergency sounds cool. would have to be totals of 12" plus tho

[Nomz]

All I will say for the 18z suite is that the GFS is a hilarious model that should probably not be trusted outside of 72 hours

[brooklynwx99]

this is all you need to see. trend has been ongoing for two days now

[stormtracker]

Can somebody post that link for the lwx page with the winter storm confidence, impact matrix?  Don't feel like going back looking for it.  Thanks

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Winter Storm Emergency sounds cool. would have to be totals of 12" plus tho

That’s not bad at all.  We need the drunk hotel sex level of warning.  Rarely seen but always a treat. 

[Scraff]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro is a FOLKS! Thank you to all who joined us for Happy Hour. See you at 0z!

Holy bitchin nachos!! Boom went the queso!! 

 

[andyhb]

That northern stream wave/lobe of the PV continues to get stronger with each passing Euro run. Not sure if that continues, but it absolutely raises the ceiling on this if it phases. I should probably add that it also may induce more mixing concerns for areas further south, as it would lead to SE ridge amplification and WAA aloft.

[NorthArlington101]

Can somebody post that link for the lwx page with the winter storm confidence, impact matrix?  Don't feel like going back looking for it.  Thanks

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps

[winter_warlock]

 With it being a cold very dry snow. Even though we won't reach blizzard criteria. It could be quite breezy ..I'm sure we will see some blowing and drifting 

[rollenwiese]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Can somebody post that link for the lwx page with the winter storm confidence, impact matrix?  Don't feel like going back looking for it.  Thanks

think it's this one: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/experimentalwinterstormthreat

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Can somebody post that link for the lwx page with the winter storm confidence, impact matrix?  Don't feel like going back looking for it.  Thanks

The whole page: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

[LeesburgWx]

Chasing my crazy kids around to get ready for bed and I come back to see we got nuked. My God. If this keeps trending, where are we going to be come Saturday??

[winter_warlock]

Hmmm I wonder if it will go to purple (high impact)

[bncho]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Chasing my crazy kids around to get ready for bed and I come back to see we got nuked. My God. If this keeps trending, where are we going to be come Saturday??

We're going to be Jebwalking in the snow that night.

[andyhb]

If the dynamics get super charged by that northern stream wave, it increases the chances of a 2'+ jackpot for someone, if you want it in real weenie speak.

[Disc]

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That northern stream wave/lobe of the PV continues to get stronger with each passing Euro run. Not sure if that continues, but it absolutely raises the ceiling on this if it phases. I should probably add that it also may induce more mixing concerns for areas further south, as it would lead to SE ridge amplification and WAA aloft.

Could be too much of a good thing and then most/all of us mix. I kind of hope it's about at its ceiling now or we're gonna have people cliff diving.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Hmmm I wonder if it will go to purple (extreme)

If models hold, it will

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps. 12z bottom.

 

First time for the storm seeing a foot show up on the mean. Northern extent went north too which is nice to see a large swath of 6”+ - not sweating a 50 mile swath of a narrow band. 

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, Disc said:

Could be too much of a good thing and then most/all of us mix. I kind of hope it's about at its ceiling now or we're gonna have people cliff diving.

I do think there's a logical limit to how far north the mixing is based on how strong the Arctic high is initially. Someone is going to get absolutely hammered with ice though if the SE ridge amplifies significantly.

[Yeoman]

44 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Second Synoptic Breakdown 1/24-1/26
 

Nice effort - still too much weenie bias and you’ve turned “the ingredients are on the counter” into “dinner is served” about three days before the oven even preheats. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Anybody on the inside have access to Cantore's flight plans?

May he stay far away.. well wait.. all those thunder snow live shots tho. Conflicted.