January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Eskimo Joe]

NBM jumped significantly. Near record snowfall south of DC to RIC.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Disc said:

13z NBM Probabilities of 48hr snowfall exceeding 12"

Washington: 66%

Baltimore: 59%

Hagerstown: 50%

Fredericksburg: 70%

Winchester 58%

Charlottesville: 75%

Leesburg: 58%

Richmond: 75%

Roanoke: 70%

Lynchburg: 75%

Norfolk: 52%

You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home

[Shad]

NAM just gave me 3 inches on Friday in Virginia....shew

[Eskimo Joe]

06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true.

[Disc]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home

I'm used to seeing those percentages across SE WV for upslope snow totals of like 6", not areawide exceeding 12" LOL. Hard to believe, but the writing on the wall is becoming more clear that this could be a storm to remember. 

[yoda]

Just me, or is 12z ICON slow today? Sitting at 48 still

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true.

It’s coming north 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home

It's only slightly lower so this isn't me being negative, but is there any reason we should/shouldn't be using the NBM v5 that I believe goes live this spring?

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Just me, or is 12z ICON slow today?

Yeah maybe like 20 minutes slow. 00z icon was through the event at like 10:20pm last night.

[Ji]

i am really sleep guys. I was up for the Euro and then did PBP for 6z gfs

[Bob Chill]

Surprised models still keep my yard safe from mixing but I'm expecting some sleet for a time. Hopefully no zr. Power can go out for weeks (not days) down this way lol. If I mix and the DMV doesn't get widespread double digits ill have to put a check mark in the fail column lol.

Getting calls for snow removal help already. Might be a very profitable storm. Deep powder, diesel fuel, and heavy equipment sounds like a good f'n time hahahah

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, Shad said:

NAM just gave me 3 inches on Friday in Virginia....shew

Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention?

It was mentioned in the LWX discussion this morning... I think also Chuck has mentioned it 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, don't know where this came from. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention?

It came from a tired old model that loves to make shit up way out of range 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

It was mentioned in the LWX discussion this morning... I think also Chuck has mentioned it 

EZF to RIC to SBY is going to get their snow climo in a week. Wow. What a way to break a snow drought.

[yoda]

Hmmmm... 12z ICON h5 at 84

 

[Lucy Pull]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true.

Might have pushed the initial overrunning south a smidge but brings the coastal further north from phasing. Throws heavy precip into New England actually. 
 

 

[yoda]

Just now, yoda said:

Hmmmm... 12z ICON h5 at 84

 

12z NAM at 84 for reference 

[Ephesians2]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It came from a tired old model that loves to make shit up way out of range 

Euro had something similar but further south 

Seems like a weak wave developing along the boundary from Thursdays front. 

[DDweatherman]

I like the look of the ICON at h5 on that h84 frame above... let's see where it goes. Nice to have a less closed off s/w there. 

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's only slightly lower so this isn't me being negative, but is there any reason we should/shouldn't be using the NBM v5 that I believe goes live this spring?

Still in testing. It runs several hrs after the NBM 4.3, so that will bump up with the next run, don’t worry. It also is biased low on these kinds of setups. This is what the testing is for! We have lots of comparison analysis and notes for developers that will be sorted out after the winter season. 

[paulythegun]

Massive differences between ICON (slower ejection and further south) and UKMET (northern stream interaction, faster ejection)

 

[LP08]

Yeah the ICON is looking nice through 102

[yoda]

12z ICON surface and h5 at 108

 

 

[stormtracker]

ICON has that molly wop look. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Someone needs to change the date on the thread title. This is morphing into a delayed but not denied system. 25-26. Could even extend to 27th.

[yoda]

120 12z ICON 

 

 

[stormtracker]

FOLKS

[Nomz]

Icon printing just a ton of freezing rain down south

[AU74]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ICON has that molly wop look. 

Who's Molly and why do want to whop her?