January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[mappy]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Still a chance, but probably lower than normal. I’d be very sad, but I’m also willing to chase this one so long as there is a storm. I’m just hoping it holds for the area so I can chase from the couch.  

 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

As in no snow at all I would say pretty low imo. 

Thanks. So at this time everybody just be happy we will get snow, details to be determined. 

[LongRanger]

anyone able to access weather.gov is doing so via a certificate other than weather.gov's invalid one, not everyone has that option

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said:

I have no idea if the MOGREPS (UKMET Ens) is any good, but since I like what it "snows," I'm posting it.
18z vs 12z

Wow ukmet ensembles definitely increased for 18z compared to 12z!!

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

This might be banter, but I am extremely nervous tonight

Worried about the GFS being right? Looking for a suppressed mess? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

This might be banter, but I am extremely nervous tonight

Nervous about what? There is virtually zero chance this misses your subforum. Just because you may not get the 48" you crave, please dont ruin it for the rest of the forum. These guys have waited an eternity for a forum-wide warning type event.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nervous about what? There is virtually zero chance this misses your subforum. Just because you may not get the 48" you crave, please dont ruin it for the rest of the forum. These guys have waited an eternity for a forum-wide warning type event.

Now I am somewhat nervous about suppression too--like if the models were to tick even further south the next two cycles. I'm not sure what the "floor" of the south trend is here. Can't imagine it's to the point of a complete whiff (I hope)--but just hoping to stay in solid warning criteria. But a lot of moving parts still, I know.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow ukmet ensembles definitely increased for 18z compared to 12z!!

I feel like uncle is gonna go ape again at 0z, lol

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nervous about what? There is virtually zero chance this misses your subforum. Just because you may not get the 48" you crave, please dont ruin it for the rest of the forum. These guys have waited an eternity for a forum-wide warning type event.

What is a "miss" in your book?

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I am somewhat nervous about suppression too--like if the models were to tick even further south the next two cycles. I'm not sure what the "floor" of the south trend is here. Can't imagine it's to the point of a complete whiff (I hope)--but just hoping to stay in solid warning criteria. But a lot of moving parts still, I know.

The way this happens is if the s/w doesn’t eject out of the SW. if you see that, we can perhaps get shutout in the dc/balt region. If the wave comes out anything like how the euro did at 18z or the ggem, uk, etc., that just about takes a total whiff off the table and there’s way more upside than downside.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

What is a "miss" in your book?

Smoking cirrus. I always set expectations low. Ground whitening is a win in my book.

[87storms]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nervous about what? There is virtually zero chance this misses your subforum. Just because you may not get the 48" you crave, please dont ruin it for the rest of the forum. These guys have waited an eternity for a forum-wide warning type event.

It’s still 5-6 days out in a La Niña lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s still 5-6 days out in a La Niña lol.

It would seriously take an epic system failure from nearly every single piece of guidance (outside of actually cherry picking individual ens members). That won't happen, this isnt 2001.

[LP08]

Fine I’ll be the one to say it.  Good looking end of the run on the NAM

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It would seriously take an epic system failure from nearly every single piece of guidance (outside of actually cherry picking individual ens members). That won't happen, this isnt 2001.

It's the PTSD talking. I get it.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Fine I’ll be the one to say it.  Good looking end of the run on the NAM

I was thinking the same thing, but I know CAPE would ban me if I did.

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It would seriously take an epic system failure from nearly every single piece of guidance (outside of actually cherry picking individual ens members). That won't happen, this isnt 2001.

The gfs isn’t exactly a flush hit up here. Not saying it won’t happen, but certainly my part of the subforum isn’t a lock yet. I need to see better consensus from the big dog models.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Fine I’ll be the one to say it.  Good looking end of the run on the NAM

Haha. Was just thinking how fun the NAM runs are going to be tomorrow and Wednesday. I remember that thing spitting out 50 inch totals in 2016. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I was thinking the same thing, but I know CAPE would ban me if I did.

I’d weenie myself but if it’s there I’ll look at it!

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Fine I’ll be the one to say it.  Good looking end of the run on the NAM

Would love to see that vortex in Canada drift a bit to the north and west by 50+ miles.

[Nomz]

00z Icon is running right now, will go through the event period

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Would love to see that vortex in Canada drift a bit to the north and west by 50+ miles.

That's what the CMC and UKIE are doing. NAM has it basically where the GFS does. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Would love to see that vortex in Canada drift a bit to the north and west by 50+ miles.

Wasn’t even looking there lol.  Just watching the interaction out west. Might need the PV to stay there if the Baja comes out and phases out west.

[Heisy]

The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. 
Anyway, on to 0z.

EPS had more interaction between the N/S wave and the STJ low, also moved the TPV farther NE. , and had better tilt to the trough. I wouldn’t rule out a PD2 type progression. Especially if we see more phasing happen between that N/S wave (which is important for us northerners).

Everything is really still on the table at this range. Just small timing differences between these 3 main features changes everything.


.

[TSSN+]

Ya it’s the Nam but all we got to mention right now so. Ya it has the sw pushing east and not locking off. Good start.

 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s the Nam but all we got to mention right now so. Ya it has the sw pushing east and not locking off. Good start.

 

And 18z gfs at some time 

 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

And 18z gfs at some time 

 

I’d like the TPV further west. Probably my biggest concern tbh. But also not convinced the bitterly cold temps/suppression will be realized. I still like my goal of 4-6” lol

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s the Nam but all we got to mention right now so. Ya it has the sw pushing east and not locking off. Good start.

 

I'm not afraid to say it...it does look encouraging, but it's still the NAM

[pazzo83]

potential EE rule here....

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

potential EE rule here....

EE?

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. 
Anyway, on to 0z.

Dude we are so SO close to an absolute smackdown phase with the 18z Euro. Though arguably the end run we got was better due to not having any thermal issues aloft and double barreled system. Ideally you probably have a bit more interaction but that's a nitpick so far out.