January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

The NAM would've been one hell of a run

Seems crazy to try and extrapolate the NAM at range, but if we are being honest verbatim, the ull is hugging the Southern Cali coastline crawling along on a trajectory to the baja. It also looks uber wound up. How you can tell that would be a great run, Im not quite sure.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seems crazy to try and extrapolate the NAM at range, but if we are being honest verbatim, the ull is hugging the Southern Cali coastline crawling along on a trajectory to the baja. It also looks uber wound up. How you can tell that would be a great run, Im not quite sure.

If you compare h5 to gfs the sw is moving east and is already east of gfs. But its the Nam at 84 so ain’t like it matters. 

[Terpeast]

Can’t say I hate being on the north side of the heaviest snows as depicted by the nbm. Still a little worried about suppression, but 12z assuaged that concern just a little bit. 

[snowfan]

https://x.com/i/status/2013350503464227182

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Fully expecting not to be in jackpot on this one and end up with the typical pings, but could we expect some potential for thunder snow?

Very generally speaking, thunder snow is reserved for storms that deepen rapidly near your latitude (bomb out) or less commonly a vigorous closed upper level low pass creating instability and pockets of big lift. I don't really see either with this event yet so my guess is no. There's a big thermal gradient but otherwise not a bomb scenario or gnarly closed upper level low. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Can’t say I hate being on the north side of the heaviest snows as depicted by the nbm. Still a little worried about suppression, but 12z assuaged that concern just a little bit. 

@Ralph Wiggum mentioned in the other sub that across all guidance the high weakened slightly from thr 1050s to 1044 at the most

[snowfan]

Just now, snowfan said:

https://x.com/i/status/2013350503464227182

 

[TSSN+]

Icon coming out and SW is NE so far comparing the runs.

 

[yoda]

Just a reminder, both 06z and 18z ICON only go out to 120

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Just a reminder, both 06z and 18z ICON only go out to 120

Won’t matter we’d know the result by then. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Won’t matter we’d know the result by then. 

H5 maps look pretty good so far

[bncho]

18z ICON more suppressed than 12z

[stormtracker]

Yeah, posted before that next panel came out....

[yoda]

 

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

18z ICON more suppressed than 12z

Yup its worse 

[stormtracker]

But, I will say, we're only seeing the beginnings of it on the ICON...could get better 

[yoda]

Borrowing this from the Great Don regarding the NBM

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall:

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 

Looks like an erroneous run because I don’t think we ever see that much cyclonic vorticity like this off the Baja coast (unless it’s a tropical cyclone)

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seems crazy to try and extrapolate the NAM at range, but if we are being honest verbatim, the ull is hugging the Southern Cali coastline crawling along on a trajectory to the baja. It also looks uber wound up. How you can tell that would be a great run, Im not quite sure.

12Km NAM posts should be hidden in a serious storm threat thread at this range, or any range come to think of it. It is about to be retired, and should already be. The Panasonic(which doesnt really exist) is better.

[Rvarookie]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very generally speaking, thunder snow is reserved for storms that deepen rapidly near your latitude (bomb out) or less commonly a vigorous closed upper level low pass creating instability and pockets of big lift. I don't really see either with this event yet so my guess is no. There's a big thermal gradient but otherwise not a bomb scenario or gnarly closed upper level low. 

Thanks! We always strattle the line, but sometimes that can bring a little fun with it 

[Steve25]

Made the mistake of getting on Twitter and seeing nothing but Webb and a bunch of other southern weather personalities going on and on about how the AI models have no grasp on how strong that High is going to be and once they pick up on it, this is all coming south. Someone intelligent in here please tell me they’re being somewhat biased lol

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Made the mistake of getting on Twitter and seeing nothing but Webb and a bunch of other southern weather personalities going on and on about how the AI models have no grasp on how strong that High is going to be and once they pick up on it, this is all coming south. Someone intelligent in here please tell me they’re being somewhat biased lol

Webb IMO is full of it. That HP is NOT going to be 1050.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

Webb IMO is full of it. That HP is NOT going to be 1050.

Wasn't even depicted that high on today's guidance, lol

[mappy]

Don’t know who Webb is but sounds like a great discussion in banter 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Made the mistake of getting on Twitter and seeing nothing but Webb and a bunch of other southern weather personalities going on and on about how the AI models have no grasp on how strong that High is going to be and once they pick up on it, this is all coming south. Someone intelligent in here please tell me they’re being somewhat biased lol

It isn’t even all about the high. It’s about if that energy off the west coast can push east enough to get under the flow in time to spark this thing up. 

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It isn’t even all about the high. It’s about if that energy off the west coast can push east enough to get under the flow in time to spark this thing up. 

True, and all he talks about is the high

[TSSN+]

Gfs rollin. Let’s get some more positivite trends here. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Made the mistake of getting on Twitter and seeing nothing but Webb and a bunch of other southern weather personalities going on and on about how the AI models have no grasp on how strong that High is going to be and once they pick up on it, this is all coming south. Someone intelligent in here please tell me they’re being somewhat biased lol

It’s not just the strength of the high, it’s the confluence area that sets up between the TPV lobe off Nova Scotia and the impending s/w digging out of Central Canada. The stronger the high, the drier the airmass and colder temps at latitude, but if you have an ejecting piece that phases and pumps the heights out in front a bit, you’ll get precip, but could be more mix. 
 

My main concern with this setup is and will always be suppression. It’s a tight rope walk, but a weaker confluent axis tends to verify a little closer in reality, but we’ll see. 

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, StormyClearweather said:

Chilly

 

That would be a new record for C'ville if it happened. Somewhere around -6 or -7 is current one I believe. 

[Scraff]

Ok. Who’s on HH GooFus PBP? @stormtracker ?