January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[BooneWX]

Just now, Blacksburg Coach said:

And the FRAM est.

 

Yall won’t have to hear the whining from us foothills guys anymore! We’ll be in the Stone Age for a while

[HKY_WX]

Pretty wild to see FRAM numbers that high. You can assume if we're getting 1.5ish QPF, that 1 inch is in the form of ZR and the rest sleet. Which means maybe an inch to 2 of sleet and an inch of ice on top. Pretty wild and devastating. If that were to happen, would likely be up there on the top 5 Icestorms of all time around northern Ga/N SC/NC.

[Blacksburg Coach]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Yall won’t have to hear the whining from us foothills guys anymore! We’ll be in the Stone Age for a while

Just to make you feel a little more depressed!

 

 

[Upstate Tiger]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Yall won’t have to hear the whining from us foothills guys anymore! We’ll be in the Stone Age for a while

Go to Best Buy and buy a StarLink!  I went and got one yesterday.  That way we can still whine.  

[SnowDawg]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Yall won’t have to hear the whining from us foothills guys anymore! We’ll be in the Stone Age for a while

Absolute last thing anyone in this region needs to go through after going through Helene....Just an absolute screw you from the atmosphere to us if we can't get this to turn into a sleet fest.

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Go to Best Buy and buy a StarLink!  I went and got one yesterday.  That way we can still whine.  

I’ll need it because inevitably the next system will happen in a week or two, phasing will be impossible and I’ll watch it snow in Tampa.

[Thrasher Fan]

Below is hour 90 of the 0z GFS and EURO. Both still not connected on the strength of the HPs to the north thus the difference in strengths of the CADs. 

[85snowline]

Why is everyone sold on no snow for NC? and I don’t care about trends or what the models say. With so many pieces to this puzzle there’s no reason to throw in the towel. 
 Maybe that’s my inner child speaking, but have a little hope.

 

Come tomorrow night, if things are as sh”::! as they are right now model wise then I’ll concede with the rest of you.! :-)

[Upstate Tiger]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I’ll need it because inevitably the next system will happen in a week or two, phasing will be impossible and I’ll watch it snow in Tampa.

Yeah I don’t know what we were thinking.  We’re not in Pensacola where they get 8”-10” of all snow.  

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, 85snowline said:

Why is everyone sold on no snow for NC? and I don’t care about trends or what the models say. With so many pieces to this puzzle there’s no reason to throw in the towel. 
 Maybe that’s my inner child speaking, but have a little hope.

 

Come tomorrow night, if things are as sh”::! as they are right now model wise then I’ll concede with the rest of you.! :-)

Because its phasing quicker each run and cutting into the Ohio valley!

[Brandonjva]

Because its phasing quicker each run and cutting into the Ohio valley!

Correct me if I’m wrong but does phasing typically happen later than models project?


.

[Buddy1987]

Hope to God those ZR totals do not verify. I mean even half of that is absolutely devastating with surface temps that low. 

[KChuck]

31 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Go to Best Buy and buy a StarLink!  I went and got one yesterday.  That way we can still whine.  

You'll need a generator also! 

[WXNewton]

22 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Below is hour 90 of the 0z GFS and EURO. Both still not connected on the strength of the HPs to the north thus the difference in strengths of the CADs. 

I feel like this GIF should have some techno music to it.

[PeeDeeWx]

Newbie. Am I correct in that if this latest Euro verifies this will be a very light and undisruptive ice event for most of SC? Upstate notwithstanding? 

[franklin NCwx]

14 minutes ago, Brandonjva said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but does phasing typically happen later than models project?


.

No. Sometimes it happens earlier. It varies, honestly 

[Louise]

48 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Ever since Fishel left, WRAL loves posting the probability of snow directly from the EPS. They call the European ensemble an exclusive product they have.


.

They are terrible at forecasting!

[eyewall]

Just now, Louise said:

They are terrible at forecasting!

They have ever truly recovered since Fishel left.

[buckeyefan1]

3 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Newbie. Am I correct in that if this latest Euro verifies this will be a very light and undisruptive ice event for most of SC? Upstate withstanding? 

Not correct. It would be very destructive if it verified. Stay tuned because this isn’t settled yet 

[Tony Sisk]

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Not correct. It would be very destructive if it verified. Stay tuned because this isn’t settled yet 

Wonder what GSP is seeing that the models are not showing.  They seem to think the Upstate is going to get smashed.

[Blacksburg Coach]

EPS

[UpStateCAD]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Wonder what GSP is seeing that the models are not showing.  They seem to think the Upstate is going to get smashed.

From what I have seen this morning both the Euro and the GFS do smash the upstate.  An inch or 2 of snow, 2 or 3 inches of sleet (the combo of these 2 equates to approx just over an inch of liquid equivalent) with the balance being freezing rain (anywhere from 3/4 of an inch up to well over an inch).

[PeeDeeWx]

9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Not correct. It would be very destructive if it verified. Stay tuned because this isn’t settled yet 

What am I missing on the map below? Thanks!

 

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, PeeDeeWx said:

What am I missing on the map below? Thanks!

 

Some of that is sleet in reality?

[buckeyefan1]

9 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Wonder what GSP is seeing that the models are not showing.  They seem to think the Upstate is going to get smashed.

Models never get a wedge right 

[buckeyefan1]

5 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

What am I missing on the map below? Thanks!

 

That’s a freezing rain map and it’s showing over an inch of freezing rain for the upstate

[eyewall]

[SEwakenosnowforu]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That’s a freezing rain map and it’s showing over an inch of freezing rain for the upstate

His name is PEE DEE though. So I assume he is looking at the ZR totals for that region. on that particular map it's not all that bad. However, there is plenty of time for that to change.

[PeeDeeWx]

4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That’s a freezing rain map and it’s showing over an inch of freezing rain for the upstate

Understood. My question is this was showing an 1"+ of freezing rain for the top half of the state up until 12-18 hours ago and now it appears it's just the upstate forecast to get significant ice. I said "most" of SC in my initial question regarding drastic change in accumulation for the better (less). Just wanted to make sure I'm looking at the map correctly and it's nothing egregious outside of upstate.

[SnowDawg]

Feels like a good time to share this with the type of ice accumulation being talked about. Unfortunately winds look to get quite gusty during the height of the freezing rain as well. I'm praying for as much sleet as possible now, or for this thing to just cut all the way to Memphis.