January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, EarlGrey said:

Good gracious that gradient is too much. Just a couple counties is all it from oblivion to nothing.

2018 all over again. Wake county was 8-10 inched on north end and nothing on south end

[wncsnow]

I knew the northern stream would find a way to kick us in the nads again 

[Tony Sisk]

29 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z Euro kuchera

In Greenville, SC....this is a big Booooooo

[Tony Sisk]

7 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

KGSP AFD.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Boys and girls...remember these next several days.  You will be talking about them and posting maps long after I have gone on... 

the key take away (1:11 update)

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence continues to increase for a storm system to affect the
area this weekend. Chances for accumulating snow and ice accordingly
have increased compared to the previous forecast.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2018 all over again. Wake county was 8-10 inched on north end and nothing on south end

Copy paste 9 (just extend to the East)

[olafminesaw]

[SnowDawg]

16 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?

Yeah in general that’s it. Technically in this scenario they are actually both slowing down and phasing later timing wise, but further west nonetheless. I think if we are going to have a phase, a quicker one is the better of the two evils cause at least the TPV and HP won’t be retreating by then.

[suzook]

Anyone have the latest Euro sleet/ice map? GA specifically please

[HKY_WX]

Don't' go chasing shortwaves, please stick with the clown maps and Bastardi quotes you're used to.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, suzook said:

Anyone have the latest Euro sleet/ice map? GA specifically please

 Unfortunately for the ATL area, the atmosphere on the 12Z Euro has warmed notably vs the prior 2 runs, especially at/near 850 mb. Thus, the WxBell Euro’s ptype, which is clearly almost all ZR even without looking at soundings, isn’t debatable.

 The 12Z Euro has ~2.3” qpf of wintry precip, with the vast majority being ZR, falling over a 36 hour period from hour 99 (10 AM Sat 1/24) til hour 135 (10 PM Sun 1/25). The coldest is from Sat evening through the entire night with mid 20s. Fortunately it’s still out 4-5.5 days and obviously a lot can change. This as well as recent runs are in the ballpark of worst case scenarios for there, a colder version of Jan 1973 (which was only barely <32). So, keep hope alive as just about any change would be better than what this run shows. As ominous as this is, it still being out 4-5.5 days leaves notable opportunity for improvement from the worst case.

@dsaur

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Yeah in general that’s it. Technically in this scenario they are actually both slowing down and phasing later timing wise, but further west nonetheless. I think if we are going to have a phase, a quicker one is the better of the two evils cause at least the TPV and HP won’t be retreating by then.

Gotcha that makes sense, that's why the thermals were so much worse with the intial WAA precip, because of the retreating high 

[PackGrad05]

Ethan put out his three possibilities

 

 

[HKY_WX]

This is just complete model porn if you've researched and tracked these things for 25 years. Just absolutely SICK looking 500mb chart.  I have NEVER seen one look this good for our area (GA/SC/NC) from just a general winter storm perspective, regardless of where you find yourself in the precip type category. Definitely soak in this next week.

 

[strongwxnc]

27 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

KGSP AFD.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Boys and girls...remember these next several days.  You will be talking about them and posting maps long after I have gone on... 

 

19 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

the key take away (1:11 update)

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence continues to increase for a storm system to affect the
area this weekend. Chances for accumulating snow and ice accordingly
have increased compared to the previous forecast.

Yup and this statement and its been a while since Warning criteria was met around for most.  

All this to say, confidence on p-types remains low but confidence of
getting warning criteria snow/sleet and/or ice accumulations is
increasing.

[Shack]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Don't' go chasing shortwaves, please stick with the clown maps and Bastardi quotes you're used to.

...I know that you got to have the GFS or nothin' at all,

but that Low is movin' too fast...

On topic, I'd take that 1.0" of Freezing Rain that the Euro shows and rationazlize  it a win that Macon got frozen precip two Sundays in a row !

[olafminesaw]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

This is just complete model porn if you've researched and tracked these things for 25 years. Just absolutely SICK looking 500mb chart.  I have NEVER seen one look this good for our area (GA/SC/NC) from just a general winter storm perspective, regardless of where you find yourself in the precip type category. 

 

Yeah, a near lock for 1.5-2.5" QPF all frozen doesn't come around too often and that bears out in the upper levels

[buckeyefan1]

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This is just complete model porn if you've researched and tracked these things for 25 years. Just absolutely SICK looking 500mb chart.  I have NEVER seen one look this good for our area (GA/SC/NC) from just a general winter storm perspective, regardless of where you find yourself in the precip type category. Definitely soak in this next week.

 

It’s beautiful

[olafminesaw]

[HKY_WX]

Just for posterity.

[wncsnow]

AI models are shifting north with thermals. Folks in western and central NC should think about getting a generator.

[BooneWX]

Ohhhh so nowwww we’ll achieve a phase. Of course we would. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

AI models are shifting north with thermals. Folks in western and central NC should think about getting a generator.

They’ve kinda been flippy floppy tho last several runs going north then south then north again. Guess we’ll see what shakes here. I’m hoping you guys get at least a solid 5-8 or 6-10 before WAA were to ever hit. You def deserve it. Nice to see the board so active. 

[HKY_WX]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I think the 00z Thursday models (Tomorrow night) runs will be a good time to start thinking more about details (ICE vs SNOW). That's when the Baha wave will be close to shore and the HP is getting into southern Canada. 

[Tony Sisk]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

AI models are shifting north with thermals. Folks in western and central NC should think about getting a generator.

Upstate SC ?

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Tony Sisk said:

Upstate SC ?

Ice 

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Ohhhh so nowwww we’ll achieve a phase. Of course we would. 

Its the northern stream effing us last minute

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Upstate SC ?

GFS is snow and Euro is ice. 

[ADB83]

Sitting in Winston-Salem feels like a good spot. Obviously gonna be some ice in there, but should get a decent front end snow. It’s been a while. It’s going to be fun. 

[kvegas-wx]

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

Sitting in Winston-Salem feels like a good spot. Obviously gonna be some ice in there, but should get a decent front end snow. It’s been a while. It’s going to be fun. 

Also sitting near Winston Salem.  Stick around a few model runs and you may not feel like this will be fun.  I think our chances of cold, quiet and dark are greater than white fluffy snow and sledding at this point.  Mis-time this phase and we wave to our snow as it heads off into the abyss, or wherever all the snow goes that we seem to be missing. 

[PackGrad05]

WRAL also showing something in line with Ethan's possibilities...  The cold rain line not far from I-95 corridor.