January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[burgertime]

Ensemble is a lot warmer at 850's. Would be a lot of ZR across NC. 

[wake4est]

Canadian dumps like 6" of sleet in the triangle followed by like 0.5" zr.  Almost zero snow it would seem. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'd think no at this range.  I think the mid-level warm advection will push a layer somewhere over 0C very early on

Makes sense.  I’m about 20 miles north of downtown Atlanta.  Hoping for more sleet than freezing rain.  

[Brick Tamland]

UK is warmer than the GFS. Mostly a mix in NC and mostly rain to the south. Even has east of Wake turning to rain.

[NYweatherguy]

Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Makes sense.  I’m about 20 miles north of downtown Atlanta.  Hoping for more sleet than freezing rain.  

Same. I'm up in Buford. Don't want any part of an ice storm. 

[burgertime]

GFS ENS does cool off for most of NC but a lot of easern NC has ZR on this run. 

[Brick Tamland]

[clt_25]

Does Meck/Union county NC currently have much risk for freezing rain/icing/power outage with what's known so far, or does it mostly stay south? Hard to keep up with the volume of posts, & maps (many of which are greek to me).  Lots can & will change, just trying to determine current threat level... would like to purchase new generator before the panic buying begins, if necessary... or wait another day or so?

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

That’s mostly ice in NC. 

[KrummWx]

[burgertime]

Just now, clt_25 said:

Does Meck/Union county NC currently have much risk for freezing rain/icing/power outage with what's known so far, or does it mostly stay south? Hard to keep up with the volume of posts & maps, many of which I'm unfamiliar w/.  Lots can & will change, just trying to determine current threat level... would like to purchase new generator before the panic buying begins, if necessary... or wait another day or so?

GFS ENS and CMC says yes. GFS and ICON say no. Euro we will see. I think you can't rule it out because it all depends on that airmass...which does look good. I think a safe bet would be that you get a mix of everything with mostly snow. The downside is that if you get a coating of ice on trees then snow on top that leads to trouble. Hopefully though it starts as snow and mixes when it gets lighter. 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s mostly ice in NC. 

Yes, unfortunately the UK was warmer. GFS and Euro have been rock steady, though. I feel good as long as those two stay the course.

[burgertime]

AI GFS out to 138

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS drops a foot on Larry in Savannah lol

Wow, that 12Z GFS Tue modeled historic snowstorm came out of nowhere! But of course that’s just great entertainment so far out.

Well before that period and thus much more significantly as of now, KCHS has since yesterday afternoon been warning about a significant ZR threat for this weekend even way down into much of the just inland and even possibly coastal SE SC/upper GA that could linger til as late as Mon AM. As I posted last night, the last few GEFS runs of individual members have been strongly advertising a ZR threat in the KCHS forecast region:

KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS  
WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT TO  
IMPACT THE REGION. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT 
IMPACTING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND 
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE 
STRONG, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAVORED TO DEVELOP OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LARGELY BE IN PLACE 
TO START, WITH A STRONGER WAVE DIVING INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE 
WEEKEND. FURTHER ALOFT, WE CAN FIND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET 
POSSIBLY ON THE ORDER OF 160+ KNOTS. THE CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY 
BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SOME OVERLAP WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. 

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO 
THE REGION. WHILE FORECAST DETAILS ON TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND P-TYPES 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS, A PERUSAL OF MODEL 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NOTABLE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WITH  
SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN AS A PRIMARY  
THREAT, WHICH ALSO JIVES WITH THE LATEST NBM PRECIP PROBABILITIES. 
THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX (WSSI-P) SHOWS CHANCES  
OF MINOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH EVEN A 20-  
40% CHANCE OF MODERATE IMPACTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-16.

THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY OUT LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IF 
PRECIPITATION LINGERS, THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER COULD CONTINUE  
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ON 
THE LOOKOUT FOR TEMPS/WIND CHILLS APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY 
CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

@Awesomesauce81

[PackGrad05]

Don't write off the UK just because you don't like it.  That is a possible scenario for sure.  Climatology favors a mix for most of NC.  

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Don't write off the UK just because you don't like it.  That is a possible scenario for sure.  Climatology favors a mix for most of NC.  

100% this

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Don't write off the UK just because you don't like it.  That is a possible scenario for sure.  Climatology favors a mix for most of NC.  

Don't write off the GFS and Euro, either, because you just don't want to get your hopes up.

[PackGrad05]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Don't write off the GFS and Euro, either, because you just don't want to get your hopes up.

I didn't say I was.  They are certainly possible and I'm always hoping for a lot of snow.  But climatology leans toward UK.  

[lilj4425]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s mostly ice in NC. 

ZR or IP? 

[eyewall]

I can't disagree with PackGrad05. Mixed P is still very much a possibility. With that said we also don't want this to slide much farther south to where the cutoff becomes a concern either.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

I can't disagree with PackGrad05. Mixed P is still very much a possibility. With that said we also don't want this to slide much farther south to where the cutoff becomes a concern either.

Fortunately the target is quite wide with this one compared to normal. We have some wiggle room one way or the other (as long as you have reasonable expectations). That being said, we are still more than 4 days out from the main event, which is about when we often see a big adjustment of some kind.

[WXNewton]

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

ZR or IP? 

I can't remember a storm here in HKY where we were in the upper teens with zr my suspicion would be mostly IP over ZR, but again depends on where you are.

[wncsnow]

The trend today has been to slow the timing down. Friday night start time here has turned into Saturday afternoon on most modeling

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The trend today has been to slow the timing down. Friday night start time here has turned into Saturday afternoon on most modeling

HP in NY state vs. Ohio 

[ILM2714]

Im in ILM, obviously, but my in-laws live at the Alamance/Caswell county line. I’m seriously considering heading there for the weekend with the kids. We’re a long way out but seeing that much snow would be a first for us!

[SEwakenosnowforu]

16 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I can't disagree with PackGrad05. Mixed P is still very much a possibility. With that said we also don't want this to slide much farther south to where the cutoff becomes a concern either.

I'll never forget that storm years ago where Fayetteville got almost a foot of snow and nothing but flurries in Wake co. I never trust winter weather around here after that one! Lol...no more trending south please! (Maybe a tad more)!

[Brick Tamland]

Euro is running. Hope it holds course like the GFS.

[buckeyefan1]

Ya’ll, this is beautiful

[wncsnow]

Baja a bit west on Euro

[wncsnow]

Think this will be a little south of last run