First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[MegaMike]

10 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

From what I've gathered, verification stats have had Euro AI ensemble and EPS as pretty much neck and neck...sometimes the AI has had a slight edge but definitely not the magic bullet that some people imply. The AI has done better with individual storms, especially this hurricane season, but it also got its clock cleaned in others. Just like with every other model. My two cents is there is promise, but the jury is still out on when they are most useful and to what extent. There will always be limitations when the models are mostly data-driven instead of physics based. 

I never imagined this forum diverge into a discussion about AI 

Admittedly, your last sentence is difficult to accept. I'm sure most of us feel the same too.

To add to the discussion, here's the 12z ensemble spread and diagnostic prate/type at 90hr... Still uncertainty amongst the ensembles/models so we're not entirely dead yet.

If I had to stratify it as is (for measurable precipitation), I'd call it the AIs+ICON+CMC vs. GFS+ECMWF+UKMET.

[DJln491]

[CoastalWx]

Icon with a move east. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon with a move east. 

Reggie with a move west. Prob wrong but still plenty of model disagreement. 

[Spanks45]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie with a move west. Prob wrong but still plenty of model disagreement. 

Quite surprised how that looked....it was west with Saturday too, but would sacrifice Saturday for the look Sunday. The timing is odd too, snowing here on Sunday, early morning

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie with a move west. Prob wrong but still plenty of model disagreement. 

I just looked. Nice little event 

[weathafella]

Reggie is like Brady Anderson.  One big season.   11 years ago 

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS west but not west enough

[Sey-Mour Snow]

AIGFS another “solid it”

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS west but not west enough

Yep tick tick 

[CoastalWx]

Good shift west in gfs and AI is solid 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Good shift west in gfs and AI is solid 

Ya that’s a big shift from 12z, rgem and rrfs with gfs moving west at least give the AIs some backup 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that’s a big shift from 12z, rgem and rrfs with gfs moving west at least give the AIs some backup 

I can’t do it 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that’s a big shift from 12z, rgem and rrfs with gfs moving west at least give the AIs some backup 

the RGEM is actually really similar to the AI models... has the main precip with the PVA ahead of the main vort

[weathafella]

GFS AI has been relatively steadfast.  

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

I don't agree with this at all. I think it leads many people off a cliff. People think their intuition regarding loosely defined concepts like "pattern" is superior to supercomputers developed specifically to model exactly what's possible in the atmosphere. It's pure ego. 

I, well I really don't get that at all. SO many times we've heard good Mets say why XYZ solution doesn't make sense... as in today's "storm". The good ones raised flags everywhere when certainmodelsstartedshowingbig hits, seen it a million times over the years... and then you have the social media twats. 

[ineedsnow]

GEFS will be better

[George001]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Even the euro AI ensembles got more bullish. This is ridiculous lol. Gotta think they crumble soon.

I continue to stand with the Pope on this one.

[The 4 Seasons]

Lol I get severe whiplash reading through these pages. 

Still worth watching for a moderate event but obviously a big hit looks off the table. 

Still concerning EC wants nothing to do with it hopefully some kind of agreement at 00Z.

[Kitz Craver]

Fodder, but that’s one tasty Reggie 

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Lol I get severe whiplash reading through these pages. 

Still worth watching for a moderate event but obviously a big hit looks off the table. 

Still concerning EC wants nothing to do with it hopefully some kind of agreement at 00Z.

Yeah. I’m definitely it buying anything for my area, unless something drastic changes. further east could still get something.  

[WeatherGeek2025]

i said this earlier..  

anyone remember nemo tracking..  how did the models react 3 days prior to getting hit?

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back 

[MegaMike]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS will be better

Definitely!

I'll never live this one down if AI outperforms NWP.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Let’s get the euro something better than a Cape scraper. At least get some advisory stuff to E MA coast and we’ll have something to work with at 3 days out. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s get the euro something better than a Cape scraper. At least get some advisory stuff to E MA coast and we’ll have something to work with at 3 days out. 

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and

[brooklynwx99]

bro what

[George001]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and

Completely different setup. The pattern is more progressive. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

As stated the idea of they're supposed to "learn" is totally overblown. Traditional models already have some AI built into them and already do this to an extent. From what I understand (and this may not apply equally to AI models) is

AI assists with the initializing scheme whereas it combs through ingested data and will "remove" what it believes to be bad data or an outlier based on a slew of historical information. The goal here is, or the idea is, this will lead to a more accurate initialization which is important because once you move forward in time you start to introduce error and that error becomes compounded over time...that is why forecast models (OP) are generally useless beyond D7-10 and can even be relatively useless past D5 if there is alot going on. Error also occurs because of rounding and approximations, especially approximations. 

AI models are built on a wealth of historical data where it runs and looks for similarities, both to the initialized field and then forecasts based on how these similarities evolved in the past. 

The challenges in all of this is, there is still a lot we don't understand about weather, particularly when it comes down to processes which occur during storm evolution and it becomes even more of a challenge because for forecast models to ingest this data we have to be able to parameterize it. 

There is much more to this then just verifying a specific level or variable and even that leads to a lot of questions. Probably in a tame weather pattern that is not hostile, AI will outperform but what good is that or what value is that really adding? 

Good points.  I do think AI currently has solid value beyond just "tame patterns".   In any case, just wait until we have a blend of AI,  physical inputs, and quantum computing.  In a way, I hope modelling doesn't get too good, it will take the fun out this.  Like watching the UConn women play Xavier or some team like that.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and

Cocked?

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

bro what

i'm convinced we live in a simulation