Spanks45 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, weatherwiz said: The AIGFS doesn't seem too drastically different from the 12z OP run yesterday in terms of the H5 evolution, both srn stream and nrn stream. check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, radarman said: Maybe I missed something but not sure I've seen an AI coup I've seen a lot of AI fails however 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, radarman said: Maybe I missed something but still not sure I've seen an AI coup I haven't either but I guess there is always a first time for everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Could the GFS OP be chasing the convection off the coast, while the AI is not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, wxsniss said: Increasingly interesting how these perform (at least as a distraction from a middling winter) 12z-18-0-6 GFS AI steadily ticked up each cycle 12z GFS AI stabilized / ticked back but would still be warning southeast SNE 12z EC AI has been fairly steady, advisory most of southeast SNE I don’t trust the GFS AI. That’s going to cave. I think the euro AI on paper or more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 CMC Ooooops, that's 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, radarman said: Maybe I missed something but not sure I've seen an AI coup It will eventually hit one after 1000 tries and then everyone is going to get sucked into it because it finally got a hit and ignore the other 999 misses 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up.... Very well could be too expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ova and there is no next at the moment. Cold tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Cmc is similiar to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So far gfs op is the only one that misses. AIs. CMC are hits. Reel it in folks. And fear of AI in this arena is illogical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Increasingly interesting how these perform (at least as a distraction from a middling winter) 12z-18-0-6 GFS AI steadily ticked up each cycle 12z GFS AI stabilized / ticked back but would still be warning southeast SNE 12z EC AI has been fairly steady, advisory most of southeast SNE I'd kill for that...been several years. Let me know when one shows up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 And regarding AI coups-have there been any systems where there was such a difference between op and ai? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is similiar to 0z A little east and weaker but serviceable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is similiar to 0z look at the timing difference between the CMC and the GFS....it seems it is a totally different system with the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gfs op all alone on an island . Buyers will lose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 For now I’d toss op gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, radarman said: Maybe I missed something but not sure I've seen an AI coup You could argue it never bought into the deep ULL traveling south of us for 1/15 when the other guidance was trying to show it. It turned out more correct. But that wasn’t nearly as high stakes imho than this one. This one is definitely more of a fundamental difference. I’m skeptical AI will score the coup but this is a good test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You could argue it never bought into the deep ULL traveling south of us for 1/15 when the other guidance was trying to show it. It turned out more correct. But that wasn’t nearly as high stakes imho than this one. This one is definitely more of a fundamental difference. I’m skeptical AI will score the coup but this is a good test. The difference is so stark that you almost have to pick one or the other vs compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up.... The AI versions must run on less resolution kind of like what the regular models did back in the day. The precip and qpf fields are broader but to me they may be handling the upper levels better as a result. IDK, just my observation… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 In past years in almost every instance these setups have snowed for all of SNE. Shouldn’t be different this time . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha no office anymore. Been taking it easy but now poking around the job market. Good luck man. Hope you find something awesome. 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gfs op all alone on an island . Buyers will lose Have you seen the Euro? lol the Euro and GFS have reached second base and are sprinting toward third. We need Skynet. Desperately at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Masswx said: Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape Please check in with dad and limit his access to sharp tools… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 What a weenie…checking models at school. Love it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Masswx said: Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape Go back to class 1 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: For now I’d toss op gfs. Tossed as a blizzard and a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, Masswx said: Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape Please send medical assistance to your father . Even the school nurse at this point would work 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The EC AI ensembles were bullish too at 6z. It just concerns me the euro and euro ensemble have pretty much nothing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m thinking 3-6” as of now across sne. West gets more of the saturday pre deal and east more on sunday. I meant more than you think would be frustrated with a couple of inches. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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