First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Spanks45]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The AIGFS doesn't seem too drastically different from the 12z OP run yesterday in terms of the H5 evolution, both srn stream and nrn stream. 

check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up....

[radarman]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Maybe I missed something but not sure I've seen an AI coup

I've seen a lot of AI fails however

[8611Blizz]

Just now, radarman said:

Maybe I missed something but still not sure I've seen an AI coup

I haven't either  but I guess there is always a first time for everything...

[CarverWX]

Could the GFS OP be chasing the convection off the coast, while the AI is not?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Increasingly interesting how these perform (at least as a distraction from a middling winter)

12z-18-0-6 GFS AI steadily ticked up each cycle

12z GFS AI stabilized / ticked back but would still be warning southeast SNE

12z EC AI has been fairly steady, advisory most of southeast SNE

I don’t trust the GFS AI. That’s going to cave. I think the euro AI on paper or more accurate. 

[mob1]

CMC

 

Ooooops, that's 0Z

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Maybe I missed something but not sure I've seen an AI coup

It will eventually hit one after 1000 tries and then everyone is going to get sucked into it because it finally got a hit and ignore the other 999 misses

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up....

Very well could be too expansive. 

[cleetussnow]

Ova and there is no next at the moment.  Cold tho

[MJO812]

Cmc is similiar to 0z

[weathafella]

So far gfs op is the only one that misses.  AIs. CMC are hits.  Reel it in folks.  And fear of AI in this arena is illogical.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Increasingly interesting how these perform (at least as a distraction from a middling winter)

12z-18-0-6 GFS AI steadily ticked up each cycle

12z GFS AI stabilized / ticked back but would still be warning southeast SNE

12z EC AI has been fairly steady, advisory most of southeast SNE

I'd kill for that...been several years. Let me know when one shows up.

[weathafella]

And regarding AI coups-have there been any systems where there was such a difference between op and ai?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is similiar to 0z

A little east and weaker but serviceable 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is similiar to 0z

look at the timing difference between the CMC and the GFS....it seems it is a totally different system with the CMC

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs op all alone on an island . Buyers will lose 

[weathafella]

For now I’d toss op gfs.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, radarman said:

Maybe I missed something but not sure I've seen an AI coup

You could argue it never bought into the deep ULL traveling south of us for 1/15 when the other guidance was trying to show it. It turned out more correct. But that wasn’t nearly as high stakes imho than this one. This one is definitely more of a fundamental difference. I’m skeptical AI will score the coup but this is a good test. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You could argue it never bought into the deep ULL traveling south of us for 1/15 when the other guidance was trying to show it. It turned out more correct. But that wasn’t nearly as high stakes imho than this one. This one is definitely more of a fundamental difference. I’m skeptical AI will score the coup but this is a good test. 

The difference is so stark that you almost have to pick one or the other vs compromise.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

check out the moisture profiles between the 2....hopefully the AI isn't missing something. I feel like it has had issues with drier sides of systems? Too expansive with precip fields? Maybe I am making that up....

The AI versions must run on less resolution kind of like what the regular models did back in the day. The precip and qpf fields are broader but to me they may be handling the upper levels better as a result. IDK, just my observation…

[Damage In Tolland]

In past years in almost every instance these setups have snowed for all of SNE. Shouldn’t be different this time .

[Masswx]

Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape

[WxWatcher007]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha no office anymore. Been taking it easy but now poking around the job market. 

Good luck man. Hope you find something awesome.

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs op all alone on an island . Buyers will lose 

Have you seen the Euro? lol the Euro and GFS have reached second base and are sprinting toward third. 

We need Skynet. Desperately at this point. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape

Please check in with dad and limit his access to sharp tools…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What a weenie…checking models at school. Love it!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape

Go back to class 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For now I’d toss op gfs.

Tossed as a blizzard and a whiff.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Idk about this storm looking from school i see a 1-3 event land a 2-4 on cape

Please send medical assistance to your father . Even the school nurse at this point would work 

[CoastalWx]

The EC AI ensembles were bullish too at 6z. It just concerns me the euro and euro ensemble have pretty much nothing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m thinking 3-6” as of now across sne. West gets more of the saturday pre deal and east more on sunday.

I meant more than you think would be frustrated with a couple of inches. lol