January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A little rant on the PDO

In Fall 2024, the PDO hit its lowest monthly reading since the mid 1800s. That easily carried a <-1 state through last Winter. This July, it crushed last Fall's record, hitting -4.18, ensuring another <-1 PDO Winter, regardless of what unfolds in the H5 pattern. 

The PNA so far this Winter since Dec 1st, has been negative every single day. CPC has that continuing through the 1st week of January, and what was previously looking like a bounce positive mid-month is not looking so sure with todays long range models holding a N. Pacific ridge. 

+PNA is our best coastal low pattern. From the gulf of mexico, to maine, Miller A's and Miller B's, +PNA is the way to bomb low pressures on the east coast. 

When the PNA is negative, that's a coastal high pressure pattern. 

This year, going into December, we had 21 of the last 29 months being +PNA! Since the 23-24 El Nino turned to negative-ENSO we still had 17 of 25 months +PNA. It was looking like we could possibly see a +PNA Winter!

2018-2024 had the most -PNA February and March, for a 7 year period, by 140%! On all records, the highest 7-consecutive year anomaly was -NAO in January 1960's at +95dm.. then we hit +140dm for a 7-year period Feb-March -PNA 2018-2024. 

The PDO is in a decadal negative state, and it's really peaking right now. I was hoping after the 23-24 El Nino we would start moving away from that, but it looks like there is still long ways to go.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

[Ji]

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

Here bro. Use this map. It dosent have a global warning agenda

[WxUSAF]

Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern. 

[Ji]

Gefs looks cold too

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here bro. Use this map. It dosent have a global warning agenda

TT is Celsius and Weather Bell is Fahrenheit, hence minor temp differences are accentuated on WB. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe a blip, but 6z GEFS is a big change in a more positive direction for us. Much deeper -NAO/-AO and it keeps a trough in the east until the very end of the run, when it’s still a very workable gradient pattern. 

All 3 models have moved away from a SER at d15/16. That's why I don't get why anyone worries about the pattern depiction that far out, esp given how this has gone for months now. Any suggestion of protracted warmth is muted/ doesnt materialize.