January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Precip creeping northward each run. Problem is the temps are very marginal. The crappy pacific is winning over the NA, AS MODELED on the GFS/GEFS. We shall see.

[rjvanals]

Euro gets snow into DC on Saturday 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Euro gets snow into DC on Saturday 

Best run yet easily 

[Cobalt]

[Ji]

Best run yet easily 

Let’s keep it ticking. I don’t remember the last time we had a north friend to help us.

[CAPE]

Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs-

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Best run yet easily 

Low new Hudson Bay moves west enough for the precip to reach us 

[Ephesians2]

Sorry if this has already been posted here. 

[T. August]

Just now, CAPE said:

Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs-

More negative tilt? Trying to get better lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, CAPE said:

Easy to see why the Euro has a more favorable outcome than the GFS looking upstairs-

Keep it going. Little more phase will blossom the qpf shield

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

More negative tilt? Trying to get better lol

Yes, and sharper, plus partial phasing. GFS is flatter and weaker with the surface low and doesnt draw in enough cold air because of the lack of interaction/sharpness with the shortwave.

[CAPE]

Who do we trust more here? Love those Brits.

[bncho]

Euro is actually pretty good lol

[Eskimo Joe]

18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 

 

 

[bncho]

IMO DC is a good spot to be in for this. Just far north such that mixing isn’t likely to be an issue, just far south such that they can get into that precip band.

[Terpeast]

When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far.

[bncho]

sign me up

[Ruin]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

When the models were showing a great pattern over the next 10 days and beyond a few days back, it was showing this system but it was way suppressed to the south because of the cold press. Now that the block is falling apart, the cold press isn't as much, allowing this system to come up north. Hopefully we still have enough cold air to snow if the precip comes up that far.

models that do temp guidance have been so wrong over the last 7 winters always show this historic cold for weeks turns out to be a bit below for a day or 2 

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 

 

 

Short on time? we still have plenty of time with the way these models are lol. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Short on time? we still have plenty of time with the way these models are lol. 

Actually I agree with you. The NYC event trended north in the last day or so, putting the max just NE of the city instead of directly over and south of it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said:

Sorry if this has already been posted here. 

And with the 1st of January projected to be very warm, they are going with a big pattern change for the 2nd half of the month:

 

PNA has been negative every day this Winter since Dec 1st. LR models have it going positive for the 2nd half of January:

If the CPC is right, it could actually get very cold Jan 20-30. 

[Eskimo Joe]

We're so close.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z Euro gets some kind of snow back to I-81 

 

 

And thus the reason why writing off something 10+ days from now is ludicrous. Nina = short/medium range surprises quite frequently. Not saying this is a hit but those were some big ticket changes in under 36hrs.