January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

How does this compare to 12z?

Could argue it’s just wetter/norther. All related ig

 

this trend also can’t hurt: 

[Heisy]

18z GFS vs 18z euro AI. Really close honestly

Gfs probably begins negatively tilting slightly earlier

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Is it better? It looks a lot better!

[DDweatherman]

It’s definitely a move towards the gfs this run, not going to be “all that close” to what the gfs showed….BUT remember it’s minutia differences that make big implications downstream. 

[overcautionisbad]

Get the crown ready for the GFS

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it is better.  I think we're still in the game?  Or at least a morale booster.  We live to fight another day.

[jlewis1111]

all noise til tonights 0z runs following same pattern as last week this time for this past weekend storm

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z GFS vs 18z euro AI. Really close honestly

Gfs probably begins negatively tilting slightly earlier

Yep. Was just gonna post this. AI went negative a few hours later than we want. It is getting closer though. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, an ass hair wester with what should be our formative close low at 48.   Money shots start at 72

How many ass hairs does it take to make a HECS?? 

[coastal front]

As long as the bleeding has stopped that gives us 100* hours to keep ticking better. At some point you reach an inflection point and it gets a lot better with smaller changes. 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said:

Get the crown ready for the GFS

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Get the crown ready for the GFS

[Terpeast]

We’re not out of this yet. 

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

How many ass hairs does it take to make a HECS?? 

Sasquatch

[stormtracker]

Just compared the H5 and it is markedly so much better.

[Bob Chill]

I'll have to see the euros h5 vort panels to compare but right now the differences between the euro and gfs are pretty small. Gfs is just a little quicker to close off and go negative. Like what I said recently with the euro trough pointing at 1 o'clock and the gfs at high noon. If the euro moves that direction at 0z it gets real interesting 

[overcautionisbad]

What was the Canadian model run like? I feel like that did best at this point last week

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

How many ass hairs does it take to make a HECS?? 

Yeah. I’m pretty sure I haven’t seen that info in the weenie handbook. Maybe it’s in a later chapter? I don’t know. I hate reading books. Anything after the cover of the book— I just put it down and go eat a plate of bitchin nachos instead. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll have to see the euros h5 vort panels to compare but right now the differences between the euro and gfs are pretty small. Gfs is just a little quicker to close off and go negative. Like what I said recently with the euro trough pointing at 1 o'clock and the gfs at high noon. If the euro moves that direction at 0z it gets real interesting 

The surface depiction is very sensitive to the timing of the negative tilt and closing off, correct?

[overcautionisbad]

Ah Canadian only runs every 12 hours? Am I seeing that right?

[bncho]

The ONE time we need the GFS to lead, and it might just do that. If we're looking at this same look at Wednesday 12z (or better yet, trend even better), we might have something on our hands.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, bncho said:

The surface depiction is very sensitive to the timing of the negative tilt and closing off, correct?

Extremely. Unlike the last storm, this one basically blows up right at our latitude. Last one was mature and loaded with moisture well before the approach. This storm is going to be explosive wherever it rapidly deepens. That's a lock. Where that happens depends entirely on how the upper levels transpire 

[Climate175]

So close...

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z.

[Cobalt]

So incredibly easy to extrapolate what a similar shift at 0z would do.. Let's hope the Euro can fill in the blank for us

 

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z.

Again, watching that patch over now sc Va that was over NC at 12z…

[LeesburgWx]

We can’t have that meet in the middle BS. We need a full cave to the GFS and then a little more. 

[Paleocene]

euro 18z left, 12z right. 500/vort valid sat 18z.  looks much better on the left, which is why we saw the surface improvemnt

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z.

   Definitely came nw!!