Solution Man Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, FatherNature said: GFS has the coastal low over Cheyenne, Wyoming at HR102. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS..complete comical cave or gradual stepbacks? Step back. And “GFS says what storm” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Believe man, GFS is going to nuke us. 47" for DC with 50 MPH winds. Yeah, that's probably not going to happen. But... if you're not going to believe why are you here watching every model run? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, IUsedToHateCold said: Believe man, GFS is going to nuke us. 47" for DC with 50 MPH winds. Yeah, that's probably not going to happen. But... if you're not going to believe why are you here watching every model run? I am here for every laugh that will generate. Even though we know its not happening, I'd pay to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Sadly, I have no faith that the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Shad said: Based on the ICON ensemble it seems like the Icon doesnt have a handle on this, lows all over the place with a cluster along the southern new england coast Neither does any model. This is one of the least predictable setups you could possibly have in an east coast winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Early returns (h30) say a hold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Nomz said: Early returns (h30) say a hold Important panel will be hour 84, 6z sat... We want the pivot point for the energy at 500 to be in southern Michigan/Northern Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Hour 36, ridging looks slightly higher, but I never do pbp, so I'm going to sit back and watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Yeah still looks just about the same as 12z and better than the other 12z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Interesting where the WPC has the storm. Kinda close to coast. They must be riding the GFS.. unless they see something we dont 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 34 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: Glad to see Sterling and I are on the same wavelength: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd just an "ahem" to everyone - as long as this particular poster is noting this, I remain interested... Thanks for the drop-in, Pete. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I guess you could make the argument that the 18z GFS is a very, very, very slight bit better than 12z at h5, but otherwise, it's a carbon copy so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: just an "ahem" to everyone - as long as this particular poster is noting this, I remain interested... Thanks for the drop-in, Pete. What caught my eye: "It is worth noting that, while the EC-AIFS has largely performed well inside of 5 days much of the winter season, the EC- AIFS and ECMWF did suppress the track of the most recent winter storm too much ~4-5 days out before correcting northward inside of 72 hours out." 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, Nomz said: Early returns (h30) say a hold Think we should wait till 72-81 hours to call it. But you're probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just got to 72...looking like a hold SO FAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 lol, it might even be better 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 AI GFS looks like a slight step back on the coastal. Still further west than AI Euro, and it also has that initial slug of moisture further North to start. As others have noted, that might be a way to salvage a small snowfall if the main event fails to develop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, hosj III said: Is not euro-like, that's for sure. Can't tell if west or east of 12z gfs. Wester 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 h5 looks actually a good bit better than 12z @ hour 75! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 GFS prob on that crack rock 2 11 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Height lines are not as far north at 72hrs and trough up north and little east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS prob on that crack rock The GFS is our lord and savior. Accept that truth! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I’m feeling some digital blue crush incoming. Could be the TIPA too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Wester Go west, young man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, bncho said: Go west, young man! Bring it home bunches of nachos 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 RGEM honestly not too far off of GFS at hr 84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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