January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

Just now, FatherNature said:

GFS has the coastal low over Cheyenne, Wyoming at HR102. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS..complete comical cave or gradual stepbacks?

Step back.  And “GFS says what storm”

[IUsedToHateCold]

Believe man, GFS is going to nuke us. 47" for DC with 50 MPH winds. 

Yeah, that's probably not going to happen. But... if you're not going to believe why are you here watching every model run? 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

Believe man, GFS is going to nuke us. 47" for DC with 50 MPH winds. 

Yeah, that's probably not going to happen. But... if you're not going to believe why are you here watching every model run? 

I am here for every laugh that will generate. Even though we know its not happening, I'd pay to see it. 

[anotherman]

Sadly, I have no faith that the GFS is correct.

[Amped]

6 minutes ago, Shad said:

Based on the ICON ensemble it seems like the Icon doesnt have a handle on this,  lows all over the place with a cluster along the southern new england coast

Neither does any model. This is one of the least predictable setups you could possibly have in an east coast winter storm.

[Nomz]

Early returns (h30) say a hold 

[peribonca]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Early returns (h30) say a hold 

Important panel will be hour 84, 6z sat... We want the pivot point for the energy at 500 to be in southern Michigan/Northern Indiana

[LeesburgWx]

Hour 36, ridging looks slightly higher, but I never do pbp, so I'm going to sit back and watch

[Nomz]

Yeah still looks just about the same as 12z and better than the other 12z models

[winter_warlock]

Interesting where the WPC has the storm.  Kinda close to coast. They must be riding the GFS.. unless they see something we dont

[North Balti Zen]

34 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

Glad to see Sterling and I are on the same wavelength: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

just an "ahem" to everyone - as long as this particular poster is noting this, I remain interested...

Thanks for the drop-in, Pete.

[bncho]

I guess you could make the argument that the 18z GFS is a very, very, very slight bit better than 12z at h5, but otherwise, it's a carbon copy so far.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

just an "ahem" to everyone - as long as this particular poster is noting this, I remain interested...

Thanks for the drop-in, Pete.

What caught my eye:

"It is worth noting that, while the EC-AIFS has largely performed well inside of 5 days much of the winter season, the EC- AIFS and ECMWF did suppress the track of the most recent winter storm too much ~4-5 days out before correcting northward inside of 72 hours out."

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Early returns (h30) say a hold 

Think we should wait till 72-81 hours to call it.  But you're probably right

[stormtracker]

Just got to 72...looking like a hold SO FAR

[stormtracker]

lol, it might even be better

[Cobalt]

AI GFS looks like a slight step back on the coastal. Still further west than AI Euro, and it also has that initial slug of moisture further North to start. As others have noted, that might be a way to salvage a small snowfall if the main event fails to develop. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, hosj III said:

Is not euro-like, that's for sure. Can't tell if west or east of 12z gfs. 

Wester

[bncho]

h5 looks actually a good bit better than 12z @ hour 75!

[stormtracker]

GFS prob on that crack rock 

[mitchnick]

Height lines are not as far north at 72hrs and trough up north and little east of 12z

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS prob on that crack rock 

The GFS is our lord and savior. Accept that truth!

[Scraff]

I’m feeling some digital blue crush incoming. Could be the TIPA too. 

[mitchnick]

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Wester

Go west, young man!

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

[BristowWx]

Just now, bncho said:

Go west, young man!

Bring it home bunches of nachos

[Cobalt]

RGEM honestly not too far off of GFS at hr 84