January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[ravensrule]

Just now, Hyphnx said:

Hi

Hi friend. 

[midatlanticweather]

I think the GFS was a fluke! Just playing with our emotions... sucks.. Euro will have to prove me wrong.. all other models are saying it was. My thinking is that each run has to have some improvements, even minor. We have some of it from some. Euro has to show it too.. and we have nothing!

1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said:

euro did shit with the last storm til 0z tonight. 0z runs tonight was when things drastically changed last week for this past weekend's storm. Tonight 0z will be key anything now Is just noise imo

This one is happening sooner. So I believe your timeline is off. 

 

 

[Hyphnx]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Hi friend. 

I'm hoping we all reel this one in. Kids are out of school tomorrow and my wife is a night nurse and has to drive to work. She said the drive home this morning was really brutal. Worse it has been.

[stormtracker]

A lil separation of that s/w energy where the block is, but that's about it and pretty minute

[jlewis1111]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

I think the GFS was a fluke! Just playing with our emotions... sucks.. Euro will have to prove me wrong.. all other models are saying it was. My thinking is that each run has to have some improvements, even minor. We have some of it from some. Euro has to show it too.. and we have nothing!

This one is happening sooner. So I believe your timeline is off. 

 

 

How is it sooner? last weeks storm on tue was showing fri into sat start time... It didnt get pushed out til thur models.

[stormtracker]

ok...our surface low is about to get going in the gulf.  I see a slight difference..flow is backed just a smidge bit vs 6z, but nothing to get excited about sadly.  Altho the closed low on the surface maps is a bit wester

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ok...our surface low is about to get going in the gulf.  I see a slight difference..flow is backed just a smidge bit vs 6z, but nothing to get excited about sadly.  Altho the closed low on the surface maps is a bit wester

Congrats Charleston SC

[stormtracker]

Not looking good yall.  Sorry

[paxpatriot]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Closer

That northern cutoff would be enough to cause a lot of strokes. Yikes.

[Terpeast]

Its a jump west, not enough to hit us but it could be a reversal of its ongoing east trend. Maybe just meeting in the middle?

[stormtracker]

Yup..she's out.  Toss the fucking GFS

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Its a jump west, not enough to hit us but it could be a reversal of its ongoing east trend. Maybe just meeting in the middle?

The Euro doesn’t typically make big jumps in one run. A pausing of the east trend is at least enough to keep us in the tracking game.

[stormtracker]

Well out to sea.  Hits no one substantially

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We should honestly stop looking at the gfs. I don’t think it’s got anything right this winter literally. 

Yet when it slams us at 18z happy hour, we’ll all still dance in the streets and celebrate. Though, on my street, I’ll be ice dancing. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup..she's out.  Toss the fucking GFS

 

It's actually better than 6z by a not insignificant amount.

[jlewis1111]

right where we want it 4 days out lol

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

It's actually better than 6z by a not insignificant amount.

I guess you can put it that way.   For the fish.

[FatherNature]

I am at Food Lion just in case the Euro was a hit. Guess it’s time to go home.

[BristowWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well out to sea.  Hits no one substantially

It’s the Euro.  We toss and wait for the better models to run.  

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I guess you can put it that way.   For the fish.

We only need 15 more of those trends and then we'll be looking good. 

[stormtracker]

It's deflating, but imma hang in there till 0z, including 18z later when the GFS hilariously does a full cave in 6 hours.   Our model really does suck ass. 

[EHoffman]

I don't know about you guys but I'm tossing everything but the GFS

[jlewis1111]

you nova people are dramatic as F lol

[Cobalt]

In recent memory, it feels like the Euro is most fallible past hour 120+, and the GFS is most fallible within that range. Makes perfect sense then that the Euro showed a favorable solution at that range only to trade places with the GFS as we got closer.

 

Anyways.. Euro AI shows a small event on the 5th 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

We only need 15 more of those trends and then we'll be looking good. 

The good news is we have more than 15 Euro runs until the storm starts. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well out to sea.  Hits no one substantially

maybe its the start of its west trend. Its never one snapshot...its always the trend. And did you know the GFS handles the northern stream better in La Nina winter storms than the ECMWF?

[NorthArlington101]

It was a modest hop better. Problem is it was the first square on a long hopscotch track. And we only have one leg and are clinically diagnosed with vertigo.

[wxdude64]

14 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Thankfully Apple Weather backed off the 7-8 “forecast” they had earlier

Only 7-8? I figured a '1' would be in front of those two numbers minimum. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's deflating, but imma hang in there till 0z, including 18z later when the GFS hilariously does a full cave in 6 hours.   Our model really does suck ass. 

maybe your boy trump can invest some money into it

[benjammin]

1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said:

you nova people are dramatic as F lol

To be fair, you really need to say DMV. Believe me, I'm from there and it's not just NOVA.