January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Paleocene]

Just now, bncho said:

It's very Euro-like

ICON More diggy, but less deep, positively tilted trough over ohio river valley at 114 hours. tilts toward neutral by 120 (12z sat) just like 06z euro

[Solution Man]

Gonna be really nice

[yoda]

12z ICON h5 at 120

[Paleocene]

Just now, yoda said:

12z ICON h5 at 120

Very similar to Euro

[mitchnick]

Just now, yoda said:

12z ICON h5 at 120

That should do it. Hopefully, not too much!

[Solution Man]

998 of OBX, 

[Eskimo Joe]

ICON is a hit

[Eskimo Joe]

Looking out west, there's a good ridge building in which should help to keep this thing from cutting too far west. 

[Solution Man]

It rolls in around noon on Saturday

[Nomz]

Lotta margin for error on the ICON. Like that.

[yoda]

12z ICON 132 h5

 

138 h5

 

[bncho]

ICON has a 979 low due east off the Outer Banks

[TSSN+]

Big change from 0z. But not there yet. 

[Heisy]

ICON has a 979 low due east off the Outer Banks

We take at this range absolutely


.

[Solution Man]

Not quite a flush hit but that’s just fine

[Paleocene]

ICON is a Delmarva special. Good start to 12z.

[DDweatherman]

Any chance this actually closes off and stacks too far south for us? I could see it occluding too early if its truly this much of a bomb.

[bncho]

I find it crazy that we're talking about a possible sub-980 coastal low bringing us a blizzard within D5. 

[Climate175]

970mb off the coast. Wow.

[bncho]

Just now, Paleocene said:

ICON is a Delmarva special. Good start to 12z.

@AlexD1990

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Big change from 0z. But not there yet. 

Exactly where we want it to be at this stage.

[Eskimo Joe]

Every storm has trended northwest this winter. We're about to go inside D5 with this thing. Almost game on.

[Paleocene]

On to the next JV model, the GFS

[Terpeast]

Recent storm, we were in the bulls eye or just north of it before the D4 "model reshuffle" (yes I'm coining that phrase). This time let's reshuffle this into us being the bulls eye!

[Bob Chill]

Icon was only off by an hour @ 120 meaning trough was pointing at 1pm while 12pm (neutral) would have done the job west of 95. 

[jayyy]

Icon was only off by an hour @ 120 meaning trough was pointing at 1pm while 12pm (neutral) would have done the job west of 95. 

Great place to be at D5

[bncho]

Back to back major winter storms with major southern stream influence in a Nina?

Sounds like a Modoki Nino to me!

[AlexD1990]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

@AlexD1990

 

[Eskimo Joe]

We absolutely can fail with this, but this seems like something we can reel in.

[Maestrobjwa]

59 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I have a pic of the 12z gfs from Thursday but the pic is too big for this forum totally 977 mb at benchmark.

I've found that screenshoting the image the image can reduce the size!