January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's not the mix that bothers me--it's possibly missing the 6" mark again before the flip. It's not really a warning level snow if half of that is sleet. All was asking for is to get 6-10" before the flip, but according to the trends today it's sounding like it's gonna mix sooner

You will get your 6"+

[CAPE]

For the LR snowfall freaks 

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's not the mix that bothers me--it's possibly missing the 6" mark again before the flip. It's not really a warning level snow if half of that is sleet. All was asking for is to get 6-10" before the flip, but according to the trends today it's sounding like it's gonna mix sooner

I don’t think 6 plus is out of the question for you yet at all. Now, it will probably get compacted down quite a bit. I agree this weekend is disappointing after some of the earlier hopes but we still have half of winter to go. Im hopeful we get a big, clean storm finally.

[baltosquid]

So this is what the 13z NBM has to say about next Sun-Mon. I just chose 0.3in because I figured it makes the precip presentation more manageable and also might as well focus on something at least in the advisory ballpark. I assume max temp is a 24hr high but I am not sure.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For the LR snowfall freaks 

But February is sun angle season 

[baltosquid]

Here's the 12z HGEFS (GEFS + AIGEFS). Doesn't have max temp and 24hr precip probability does not work, so spot temp and mean 24hr it is.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

But February is sun angle season 

Snow melts efficiently here regardless, because most of the time we are above freezing a day or 2 after. If we get a 6" snowstorm in early March and temps are in the mid 20s with sun the next day, a good amount of it will still be otg.

[nj2va]

Just now, CAPE said:

Snow melts efficiently here regardless, because most of the time we are above freezing a day or 2 after. If we get a 6" snowstorm in early March and temps are in the mid 20s with sun the next day, a good amount of it will still be otg.

Oh for sure, just getting ready for the complaining.

[GreyHat]

57 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Yes, though I'm definitely gonna wait for the CMC, ECMWF, or UKMET to jump on board before believing the GFS.

Agree and seeing models were showing the big snow this weekend which didn't happen.  Which is why people shouldn't put there hope right away.  Right now nothing is a go until the players are being sampled.

[Amped]

Cmc came out finally and its close to a storm. Just gotta get thsouthern and mid streams to phase along the gulf coast and bring a 500 year snowstorm to New Orleans an Atlanta. Then it will probably build heights along the east coast enough that it will hit us too.

[snowfan]

Snippet from the lwx afternoon disco

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light accumulating snow possible midweek.

A quick moving clipper system is likely to cross the region by the
end of the week. While there continues to be a lot of uncertainty
regarding the track and timing, the GFS, Euro, and Canadian all have
QPF on Thursday. Given an arctic air mass and very cold
temperatures, precipitation type will be snow. If this threat
materializes, a light snow is possible.

[LordBaltimore]

I'm just glad the models don't seem to be backing off the +PNA anytime soon

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You will get your 6"+

Alright I'm gonna hold ya to that--if I don't you owe me a...well, I don't drink, but a non-alcoholic something 

[winter_warlock]

18zgfsAI. Still has the storm for next weekend albiet off shore but I'd rather it's there a week out then inland

[Heisy]

AiGFS just missed the storm of the century

Bombs it out to 960s in the Atlantic





.

[GreyHat]

13 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

18zgfsAI. Still has the storm for next weekend albiet off shore but I'd rather it's there a week out then inland

Don't strong storms move NW.

[jayyy]

AiGFS just missed the storm of the century

Bombs it out to 960s in the Atlantic





.

Too flat out west? Trough doesn’t go negative in time and slides offshore. Man, that’s a monster. Would much rather models showing something progressive this far out

[stormtracker]

The overnight Wed thing is alive.  I know nobody's paying attention tho.

GFS H5 maps looks intriguing for next weekend...prob won't get her done tho

[stormtracker]

We know it's gonna change.  Players on the field etc etc.  Looks a ton better at H5 vs 12z

[CAPE]

HH GEFS

[Terpeast]

Gefs look good on this threat. Nice signal. Next event to track. (Also that clipper in between)

[mattie g]

Eisfest -> ski trip -> coastal

I’d take that and not care a damn about what happens the rest of the season.

[Weather Junkie]

1 hour ago, GreyHat said:

Don't strong storms move NW.

Yes…to Chicago