CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's not the mix that bothers me--it's possibly missing the 6" mark again before the flip. It's not really a warning level snow if half of that is sleet. All was asking for is to get 6-10" before the flip, but according to the trends today it's sounding like it's gonna mix sooner You will get your 6"+ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 For the LR snowfall freaks 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's not the mix that bothers me--it's possibly missing the 6" mark again before the flip. It's not really a warning level snow if half of that is sleet. All was asking for is to get 6-10" before the flip, but according to the trends today it's sounding like it's gonna mix sooner I don’t think 6 plus is out of the question for you yet at all. Now, it will probably get compacted down quite a bit. I agree this weekend is disappointing after some of the earlier hopes but we still have half of winter to go. Im hopeful we get a big, clean storm finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 So this is what the 13z NBM has to say about next Sun-Mon. I just chose 0.3in because I figured it makes the precip presentation more manageable and also might as well focus on something at least in the advisory ballpark. I assume max temp is a 24hr high but I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: For the LR snowfall freaks But February is sun angle season 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Here's the 12z HGEFS (GEFS + AIGEFS). Doesn't have max temp and 24hr precip probability does not work, so spot temp and mean 24hr it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, nj2va said: But February is sun angle season Snow melts efficiently here regardless, because most of the time we are above freezing a day or 2 after. If we get a 6" snowstorm in early March and temps are in the mid 20s with sun the next day, a good amount of it will still be otg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, CAPE said: Snow melts efficiently here regardless, because most of the time we are above freezing a day or 2 after. If we get a 6" snowstorm in early March and temps are in the mid 20s with sun the next day, a good amount of it will still be otg. Oh for sure, just getting ready for the complaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 57 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Yes, though I'm definitely gonna wait for the CMC, ECMWF, or UKMET to jump on board before believing the GFS. Agree and seeing models were showing the big snow this weekend which didn't happen. Which is why people shouldn't put there hope right away. Right now nothing is a go until the players are being sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Cmc came out finally and its close to a storm. Just gotta get thsouthern and mid streams to phase along the gulf coast and bring a 500 year snowstorm to New Orleans an Atlanta. Then it will probably build heights along the east coast enough that it will hit us too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 Snippet from the lwx afternoon disco KEY MESSAGE 3...Light accumulating snow possible midweek. A quick moving clipper system is likely to cross the region by the end of the week. While there continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding the track and timing, the GFS, Euro, and Canadian all have QPF on Thursday. Given an arctic air mass and very cold temperatures, precipitation type will be snow. If this threat materializes, a light snow is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I'm just glad the models don't seem to be backing off the +PNA anytime soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, CAPE said: You will get your 6"+ Alright I'm gonna hold ya to that--if I don't you owe me a...well, I don't drink, but a non-alcoholic something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18zgfsAI. Still has the storm for next weekend albiet off shore but I'd rather it's there a week out then inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 AiGFS just missed the storm of the centuryBombs it out to 960s in the Atlantic . 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 18zgfsAI. Still has the storm for next weekend albiet off shore but I'd rather it's there a week out then inland Don't strong storms move NW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 AiGFS just missed the storm of the centuryBombs it out to 960s in the Atlantic .Too flat out west? Trough doesn’t go negative in time and slides offshore. Man, that’s a monster. Would much rather models showing something progressive this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The overnight Wed thing is alive. I know nobody's paying attention tho. GFS H5 maps looks intriguing for next weekend...prob won't get her done tho 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 We know it's gonna change. Players on the field etc etc. Looks a ton better at H5 vs 12z 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 HH GEFS 19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Gefs look good on this threat. Nice signal. Next event to track. (Also that clipper in between) 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Eisfest -> ski trip -> coastal I’d take that and not care a damn about what happens the rest of the season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, GreyHat said: Don't strong storms move NW. Yes…to Chicago 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, GreyHat said: Don't strong storms move NW. Yup!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 39m Hope you're adjusting to the extreme cold this weekend. Not much good news. It will be COLDER next weekend for locations that get heavy snowfall in the next 48-hours. The snow won't melt but act to enhance radiational cooling at night with calm winds and high pressure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Cute lil light snow thing still on the Euro for Thursday 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Cute lil light snow thing still on the Euro for Thursday cute enough to shovel or broom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, Ji said: cute enough to shovel or broom? Broom. As soon as this storm switches to sleet tomorrow, I'm moving back to this thread and ready to track ahead. Fucking sleet. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 12/27/2025 at 5:10 PM, stormy said: To answer your question............... NO................ Snow results from precipitation when the 5000 ft. temperature is below 32 F. Is the board broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Broom. As soon as this storm switches to sleet tomorrow, I'm moving back to this thread and ready to track ahead. Fucking sleet. gotta keep plowing ahead man...February looks cold and 2nd half looks wet and cold and we got some potential next week. IT was fun spending 195 hours for 6 inches of snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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