January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

[mitchnick]

Nothing too exciting, but this is 120hr 6hr precip from Icon Ensembles. Rest of the run comes out later.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We are SO CLOSE. Regardless of what happens this run has been a major improvement over 6z 

imma let you do this, lol.  I can't relax and stop toggling.  I'll just come in for the F words

[bncho]

GFS gets snow up into the region hr 126...

[stormtracker]

It's gonna miss the phase

[DDweatherman]

Who used to do our pbp back when it used to snow, like 2009-10, 2013-16 years? JFC 

[clskinsfan]

HP is much farther north this run compared to 6Z. Should be a good run.

[stormtracker]

Still slides just s and e with the good stuff.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

imma let you do this, lol.  I can't relax and stop toggling.  I'll just come in for the F words

Lmao you're doing great I'm just here ranting about maps. 

Speaking of which we flirt for so long with a phase before it starts to retrograde back west. Though... I think it might setup for a different storm later with this look.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

HP is much farther north this run compared to 6Z. Should be a good run.

Unless we are looking at different runs, that hp is stronger and pushing farther S

 Can't make this stuff up.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Still slides just s and e with the good stuff.

Man that GFS was close... Maybe by 0z...

[DDweatherman]

There’s the option that things come out, and a phase doesn’t happen. Could still give us love, but wouldn’t be the bomb.

 

to be honest, a setup like this…I think we have to be a bit greedy to make up for the misses we’ve had since 2016 in some areas.

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, GreyHat said:

Maybe after 12z models on Wednesday 

Will check in with you

[Interstate]

at least there is no Great Lakes Low

[winter_warlock]

 Definitely an improvement compared to 06z.. in my opinion 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Lmao you're doing great I'm just here ranting about maps. 

Speaking of which we flirt for so long with a phase before it starts to retrograde back west. Though... I think it might setup for a different storm later with this look.

I’ve been reading and interpreting model runs for 15 years, this isn’t textbook for us in many ways. That said, can still score a decent event with a singular stream wave and some tapping of gulf moisture.

[bncho]

GFS is a slight tick NW but the big thing I saw was that precipitation totals were almost doubled due to the Baja low moving slightly more east.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Pretty big run to run change on the GFS at 500, fair to say it isn’t really locked in yet. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS is a reasonable "fail" scenario where the shortwave doesn't eject cleanly -AND- the confluence to the north is stronger. Even with that in mind, it looks like a solid plowable to warning level snowfall for the entire subforum with no temp issue - and it's on a weekend.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Lmao you're doing great I'm just here ranting about maps. 

Speaking of which we flirt for so long with a phase before it starts to retrograde back west. Though... I think it might setup for a different storm later with this look.

It's cool dude, I honestly don't mind...and it's kind of a relief.   I'll move to Euro pbp since I get it super early.  The only reason I did GFS pbp was because I got it early...but now we all get it at the same time, so no point in that.  And I can relax and sit back for that one.  

Now let's reel this mfer home yall

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

12z GFS is a reasonable "fail" scenario where the shortwave doesn't eject cleanly -AND- the confluence to the north is stronger. Even with that in mind, it looks like a solid plowable to warning level snowfall for the entire subforum with no temp issue - and it's on a weekend.

I was focused on the out west interactions but honestly I liked what the GFS did where we live. It showed another path to a snowstorm even if we fail our golden route. I like this second failsafe situation where we use the NS to create an eastern low pressure with all of the moisture to our south. Hopefully it won't need to come to this but I like that its there.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z GFS is a reasonable "fail" scenario where the shortwave doesn't eject cleanly -AND- the confluence to the north is stronger. Even with that in mind, it looks like a solid plowable to warning level snowfall for the entire subforum with no temp issue - and it's on a weekend.

What model you looking at? Gfs is not a plowable snow for anyone in our subforum except maybe the far south part. 

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

There’s the option that things come out, and a phase doesn’t happen. Could still give us love, but wouldn’t be the bomb.

 

to be honest, a setup like this…I think we have to be a bit greedy to make up for the misses we’ve had since 2016 in some areas.

I have minimal interest in a minor snowstorm lol. They’re boring and over in 2 hrs. What’s getting really weird is the lack of gom influence. It’s just dormant. I’m spitballing, but beginning to wonder if this lead event ends up minor and then when we finally get that energy in the southwest to make its move, that’s when we get a healthy wave developing. Not saying it’s going to happen, but seems like a possible scenario.

[Amped]

AiGfs delivers twice.

[Bob Chill]

Gfs AI is a triple header lol

#2

 

#3

 

 

Our last heater was 2015. WDI? Lol

 

[peribonca]

CMC looks to be phasing around 102h

[TSSN+]

Just now, Amped said:

AiGfs delivers twice.

So did 6z ai euro 

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC so far with a bit less suppressed of a south west though I doubt it fully can climb to us.

[Eskimo Joe]