stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: We 100% flip, but even that has its own fun Yeah, seeing a warm layer in there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’ve been craving a jeep lately… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ok, now the CAD is starting to break down with heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Yeah, seeing a warm layer in there nowThink we flip closer to 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Whatever this shows exactly the potential for a major winter storm is there. Remember everyone, a 200 hour map will change a lot. As depicted this would be a major ice storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Saw early on that shit might be a problem...BUT...200 hours, blah blah. We went from a suppressive cold to riding the line baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like the ice storm some were honking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Love the potential that’s there. Just need moisture and the blocking/cold done up over the top, and we should score snow and wintry precip in good magnitude barring a massive letdown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think we flip closer to 195 Yeah...we still gonna track next week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 It's going to be 1-2" QPF, so at least it's a major QPF event that's frozen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Saw early on that shit might be a problem...BUT...200 hours, blah blah. We went from a suppressive cold to riding the line baby! And....even if this isnt exactly what we want, there is the next one on its heels a few days later. Roll the dice enough and we win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Snow to heavy sleet to ice storm could be fun 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Alright..gonna make some breakfast and consume some morning alcohol. See yall later 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Snow to heavy sleet to ice storm could be fun Let's ask ji 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The most important takeaway is the subtropical energy involved. You can see it making its march into the sw. Where it goes from there is the unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Forgot the page number in the weenie handbook, but wasn’t there something about playing on the flip line being a great spot to be in? Gotta flirt with it for the good stuff? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like as pna builds back in at 216 a split flow develops with stj energy feed undercutting the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The STJ is back baby! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Forgot the page number in the weenie handbook, but wasn’t there something about playing on the flip line being a great spot to be in? Gotta flirt with it for the good stuff? Oh yes, damn straight. A key rule, 3B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. Idk…looks like a pretty healthy southern stream wave. With that clash of cold, could be one of those big Plains storms as opposed to a clean, moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: Forgot the page number in the weenie handbook, but wasn’t there something about playing on the flip line being a great spot to be in? Gotta flirt with it for the good stuff? I think that may be one of the lesser known original amendments to the (Weenie) Constitution! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I think that may be one of the lesser known original amendments to the (Weenie) Constitution! We the Weenies... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, bncho said: CAD fails, flip to sleet Yup. You were right. Was trying to get shit out and while sv maps showed us below 0 on junk maps, soundings had that warm layer in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS says surface temps here are 12 degrees when the precip begins. Then 1.5" of QPF falls before temps rise above 20 degrees. Acceptable. Edited: also has -16F here the morning of the 28th. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. GGEM waves hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Unclear if the 25th is the big one or 29th, or both. But 25th can hit followed by an Archabault near the 29th as the NAO briefly flips positive. Loving the loaded pattern. Sometimes the last in succession when a tellie flips is the one we do this hobby for, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. Hm...perhaps the stj waking up could help with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Its the op so grain of salt, but geez....look out West says stj is just beginning to warm up. And those looks up top and out West are chef's kiss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 That was fucking awesome. Forget details and 0c lines this far out. Cold air a plenty and an active southern jet is chefs kiss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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