January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

We 100% flip, but even that has its own fun

Yeah, seeing a warm layer in there now

[87storms]

I’ve been craving a jeep lately…

[stormtracker]

Ok, now the CAD is starting to break down with heavy precip

[NorthArlington101]

Yeah, seeing a warm layer in there now

Think we flip closer to 195

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Whatever this shows exactly the potential for a major winter storm is there.  Remember everyone, a 200 hour map will change a lot.  As depicted this would be a major ice storm for us. 

[stormtracker]

Saw early on that shit might be a problem...BUT...200 hours, blah blah.   We went from a suppressive cold to riding the line baby!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like the ice storm some were honking about.

[DDweatherman]

Love the potential that’s there. Just need moisture and the blocking/cold done up over the top, and we should score snow and wintry precip in good magnitude barring a massive letdown. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think we flip closer to 195

Yeah...we still gonna track next week

[bncho]

It's going to be 1-2" QPF, so at least it's a major QPF event that's frozen

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Saw early on that shit might be a problem...BUT...200 hours, blah blah.   We went from a suppressive cold to riding the line baby!

And....even if this isnt exactly what we want, there is the next one on its heels a few days later. Roll the dice enough and we win.

[LeesburgWx]

Snow to heavy sleet to ice storm could be fun

[stormtracker]

Alright..gonna make some breakfast and consume some morning alcohol.  See yall later

[stormtracker]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Snow to heavy sleet to ice storm could be fun

Let's ask ji

[87storms]

The most important takeaway is the subtropical energy involved. You can see it making its march into the sw. Where it goes from there is the unknown.

[mitchnick]

Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. 

[Scraff]

Forgot the page number in the weenie handbook, but wasn’t there something about playing on the flip line being a great spot to be in? Gotta flirt with it for the good stuff?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like as pna builds  back in at 216 a split flow develops with stj energy feed undercutting the ridge. 

[bncho]

The STJ is back baby!

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Forgot the page number in the weenie handbook, but wasn’t there something about playing on the flip line being a great spot to be in? Gotta flirt with it for the good stuff?

Oh yes, damn straight. A key rule, 3B. 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. 

Idk…looks like a pretty healthy southern stream wave. With that clash of cold, could be one of those big Plains storms as opposed to a clean, moderate event.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Forgot the page number in the weenie handbook, but wasn’t there something about playing on the flip line being a great spot to be in? Gotta flirt with it for the good stuff?

I think that may be one of the lesser known original amendments to the (Weenie) Constitution! 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I think that may be one of the lesser known original amendments to the (Weenie) Constitution! 

We the Weenies...

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

CAD fails, flip to sleet

Yup. You were right.  Was trying to get shit out and while sv maps showed us below 0 on junk maps, soundings had that warm layer in.   

[WVclimo]

GFS says surface temps here are 12 degrees when the precip begins.  Then 1.5" of QPF falls before temps rise above 20 degrees.

Acceptable.

Edited: also has -16F here the morning of the 28th. 

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. 

GGEM waves hello

[Ralph Wiggum]

Unclear if the 25th is the big one or 29th, or both. But 25th can hit followed by an Archabault near the 29th as the NAO briefly flips positive. Loving the loaded pattern. Sometimes the last in succession when a tellie flips is the one we do this hobby for, so we'll see. 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Canadian cold has won out this year. I think suppression is a bigger concern. 

Hm...perhaps the stj waking up could help with that?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Its the op so grain of salt, but geez....look out West says stj is just beginning to warm up. And those looks up top and out West are chef's kiss

[jayyy]

That was fucking awesome. Forget details and 0c lines this far out. Cold air a plenty and an active southern jet is chefs kiss.