January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Kevin Reilly]

41 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Temps during the storm.. ice cold

 

If so then that is not 5-10" get your ratios ready.

[Weather Will]

WB EURO 18Z AI likes the 29th period for a coastal.  (Not much for the 25-26).

[stormtracker]

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Hmmmm......good thing I'm nicer than you and did not allow snow while you were in Florida but if I must reschedule, I will take one for the team.

I only wish this on friends.  Ask Mappy when she was worried about this past Thursday. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS for 25-26 seems all over the place on whether there will be a storm and whether it will be wet/icy/snowy. Couple of snapshots for Sunday 1pm and Monday 7am.

 

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS for 25-26 seems all over the place on whether there will be a storm and whether it will be wet/icy/snowy. Couple of snapshots for Sunday 1pm and Monday 7am.

 

You don’t say? For like 9 days out it’s all over the place? That’s crazy! 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

You don’t say? For like 9 days out it’s all over the place? That’s crazy! 

yes-insane that there would be this much spread this far out

[Weather Will]

You guys are trying to get back at me for being in a foul mood earlier today....touché 

[mitchnick]

18z euro fooks us at the end of the run.

[Clrenehan]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z euro fooks us at the end of the run.

In a good way?

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Clrenehan said:

In a good way?

When it comes to the Euro ALWAYS assume the bad way 

[Scraff]

Had to drive home during happy hour. What did I miss!? A few cutters and a few congrats Boston bombs? Fuck it. Winter is over. Cancel it. I’m out…getting more beers to help me with my stupid ass thoughts. 
 

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z euro fooks us at the end of the run.

C'mon man we can't really see what's gonna happen after that, lol

[bncho]

Euro AI is like 12-15" of cold powder verbatim

[jayyy]

Had to drive home during happy hour. What did I miss!? A few cutters and a few congrats Boston bombs? Fuck it. Winter is over. Cancel it. I’m out…getting more beers to help me with my stupid ass thoughts. 
 

Lemme catch you up:

there was a 5-10” storm on the 18z gfs… It’ll disappear in about 3 hours on the next OP run and weenies will jump off ledges. Meanwhile, Cape bashes his head into a wall for having to repeat that people should be looking at ensembles this far out.

You’re caught up. Now go drink

[jayyy]

Euro AI is like 12-15" of cold powder verbatim

Show us the dirty pics

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro AI is like 12-15" of cold powder verbatim

I think weather AI is going to develop some sort of self selection bias at some point to keep us happy and just start spitting out Day After Tomorrow solutions on each run, in July even.  

[WEATHER53]

What worries me is that like always it’s 10 days away. Weve had many near equal presentations for that type of time frame in the last month 

[AlexD1990]

fuck gotta do kuchera

Daddy like....

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[AlexD1990]

Daddy like....

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Lol just realized this wasn't for Sunday

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[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO 18Z AI likes the 29th period for a coastal.  (Not much for the 25-26).

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Lol just realized this wasn't for Sunday

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Still good!

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z euro fooks us at the end of the run.

Usually it's Ji that points out the back end of a good pattern before the good pattern has even set in. I'm shocked.

[Frederick Weather]

DAMN!!!

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI is like 12-15" of cold powder verbatim

 

[Ji]

14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

What worries me is that like always it’s 10 days away. Weve had many near equal presentations for that type of time frame in the last month 

no we have not. This is the first time the precip anomolies have not beeen way below average

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Usually it's Ji that points out the back end of a good pattern before the good pattern has even set in. I'm shocked.

the 18z only goes out 144 hours

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

no we have not. This is the first time the precip anomolies have not beeen way below average

Thanks, Ji. You're one of the best posters on this forum.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Usually it's Ji that points out the back end of a good pattern before the good pattern has even set in. I'm shocked.

Looks alike a healthy cold front approaching at the end with some snow associated with a wave along it. Sure its a bit warmish out in front as it always is in these cases, but nothing 'good' was expected until just beyond this time.

 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended thru early March is not a torch. Note this is the 30 day period ending March 2nd so it does not include the cold coming late January.

[jayyy]

AIFS ensemble mean is lit up. Lord